NOAA SPC – Mesoscale Discussions

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NOAA – Storm Prediction Center – Feed For SPC Mesoscale Discussions

  • Tue, 18 Jun 2019 14:49:04 -0600: SPC MD 1121 - SPC Mesoscale Discussions
    MD 1121 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
    MD 1121 Image
    
    Mesoscale Discussion 1121
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0329 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019
    
    Areas affected...North central Oklahoma
    
    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 
    
    Valid 182029Z - 182130Z
    
    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
    
    SUMMARY...Storms are developing along a confluence zone in north
    central Oklahoma. A watch may be needed.
    
    DISCUSSION...An area of towering cumulus extends along the I-35
    corridor from the Kansas border to just north of Oklahoma City.
    Storms have started to develop in Grant and Garfield counties with
    signs in visible satellite imagery that additional storm development
    may occur farther south along the line. Do not expect any
    development south of I-40/I-44 given the weaker low-level confluence
    with southern extent. 
    
    A modified 18Z LMN sounding shows MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg and
    effective shear around 25 knots. This would support some storm
    organization with a combination of multicell and isolated supercell
    storm mode. 
    
    Areas north of the OK/KS border are covered by tornado watch 395,
    but a small severe thunderstorm watch may be needed to cover the
    severe threat from these storms.
    
    ..Bentley/Guyer.. 06/18/2019
    
    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
    
    ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
    
    LAT...LON   36929822 36989782 36979714 36939678 36979571 36369590
                35879631 35609688 35509728 35449768 36109801 36549814
                36929822 
    
    
    Read more
  • Tue, 18 Jun 2019 14:48:04 -0600: SPC MD 1122 - SPC Mesoscale Discussions
    MD 1122 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 394... FOR MID-ATLANTIC REGION
    MD 1122 Image
    
    Mesoscale Discussion 1122
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0347 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019
    
    Areas affected...Mid-Atlantic region
    
    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 394...
    
    Valid 182047Z - 182215Z
    
    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 394
    continues.
    
    SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms remain across the watch.
    Additional thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon. Hail
    and wind will be the primary threats with the strongest storms,
    although a tornado cannot be ruled out.
    
    DISCUSSION...An unstable (approximately 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE)
    and weakly capped environment remains in place across the
    Mid-Atlantic region. Despite midlevel flow around 40-50 knots, low
    and midlevel flow is generally westerly across the region limiting
    deep-layer shear to around 30-40 knots. This is also contributing to
    generally little-to-weak near-surface convergence. The lack of
    stronger low-level convergence has limited overall thunderstorm
    coverage at present -- and may continue to do so during the
    afternoon. However, given the larger-scale environment, the
    potential remains for at least brief/isolated severe wind/hail with
    any robust updraft. Across northeast portions of Severe Thunderstorm
    Watch #394 (northern New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania), the
    presence of backed low-level winds may support a brief tornado or
    two.
    
    ..Marsh.. 06/18/2019
    
    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
    
    ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...
    
    LAT...LON   38047880 39327768 39227747 39367695 39707674 39737610
                40127591 40767484 40577426 40227363 39487382 39057425
                38647470 38027484 37697503 37497532 37487576 37597595
                37617636 37747652 37787697 37977709 37787737 37987769
                37747780 37997832 37747850 37757869 38047880 
    
    
    Read more
  • Tue, 18 Jun 2019 13:21:04 -0600: SPC MD 1119 - SPC Mesoscale Discussions
    MD 1119 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS VICINITY INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
    MD 1119 Image
    
    Mesoscale Discussion 1119
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0220 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019
    
    Areas affected...Texas South Plains vicinity into western North
    Texas
    
    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 
    
    Valid 181920Z - 182115Z
    
    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
    
    SUMMARY...Isolated severe risk should gradually evolve this
    afternoon, with increasing risk expected into this evening.  While a
    WW may be needed this afternoon, current expectation is that greater
    need may evolve into early evening.
    
    DISCUSSION...Latest objective analysis shows a moistening of the
    low-level airmass in the wake of earlier convection that has since
    shifted southeast across Texas and dissipated.  Combined with
    daytime heating, mixed-layer CAPE now in excess of 3000 J/kg is
    indicated.  Despite the CAPE, the cu field remains hindered across
    the region at this time, in line with model soundings which suggest
    persistent capping/weak short-wave ridging across the area.
    
    Within the past hour, one lone cell attempted to initiate southwest
    of Childress, but has failed to sustain itself.  In the shorter
    term, an isolated storm or two may evolve -- and if so would be
    accompanied by risk for damaging winds and hail, given the degree of
    CAPE and moderately sheared environment.  However, present
    indications are that greater risk -- and thus greater likelihood for
    WW issuance -- will become greater late this afternoon and early
    this evening, particularly as the low-level jet begins to develop.
    
    ..Goss/Guyer.. 06/18/2019
    
    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
    
    ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
    
    LAT...LON   31960129 33990188 34580108 34349960 33439894 31689980
                31960129 
    
    
    Read more
  • Tue, 18 Jun 2019 13:20:04 -0600: SPC MD 1118 - SPC Mesoscale Discussions
    MD 1118 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN VIRGINIA/NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
    MD 1118 Image
    
    Mesoscale Discussion 1118
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0219 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019
    
    Areas affected...Southern Virginia/northern North Carolina
    
    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 
    
    Valid 181919Z - 182115Z
    
    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
    
    SUMMARY...Risk for locally damaging winds -- and possibly marginal
    hail -- will exist with a couple of the strongest storms this
    afternoon.  WW is not expected, due to isolated/limited nature of
    the risk.
    
    DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows storms developing either side
    of the VA/NC border, within an airmass that has become moderately
    unstable (2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE) due to heating of the
    seasonably moist boundary-layer.  Low-level flow across this region
    remains weak, but area VWPs indicate some enhancement to the
    mid-level west-southwest flow -- which is on the order of 30 to 40
    kt.  As such, a few stronger updrafts will likely emerge from time
    to time, accompanied by attendant risk for gusty/locally damaging
    winds.  Overall, degree of risk will likely remain tempered -- at
    least in part due to an overall lack of forcing, beneath weak
    short-wave ridging aloft ahead of the central Gulf Coast region
    upper disturbance.  As such, WW is not anticipated across this area
    this afternoon, before storms begin to diurnally weaken this
    evening.
    
    ..Goss/Guyer.. 06/18/2019
    
    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
    
    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...
    
    LAT...LON   37557574 37037536 36317698 36118020 35978183 36798119
                37667938 37557574 
    
    
    Read more
  • Tue, 18 Jun 2019 12:26:03 -0600: SPC MD 1117 - SPC Mesoscale Discussions
    MD 1117 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS INTO THE TRANSPECOS/SOUTH PLAINS
    MD 1117 Image
    
    Mesoscale Discussion 1117
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0125 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019
    
    Areas affected...eastern New Mexico and far West Texas into the
    Transpecos/South Plains
    
    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 
    
    Valid 181825Z - 182100Z
    
    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
    
    SUMMARY...Isolated storms may develop over the next 1-2 hours, with
    more widespread development expected later.  While eventual WW
    issuance may be needed eastward across western and central Texas,
    need for a watch in the shorter term, westward into far West Texas
    and eastern New Mexico, remains uncertain.
    
    DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows some deeper
    cumulus increasing over the higher terrain of central/south-central
    New Mexico, and southward across portions of the Davis Mountains. 
    This convection is on the western fringe of the instability
    gradient, and is evolving in line with various CAM runs which show
    isolated storm initiation in the 19Z to 20Z time frame across this
    region.  
    
    Weak short-wave ridging -- and associated weak subsidence -- is
    expected to maintain a largely capped boundary layer, such that
    development should remain initially isolated.  With that said, steep
    lapse rates aloft/moderate CAPE combined with enough veering and
    increase of the flow with height to yield modest shear, would
    support severe potential with any sustained storm.  Still, current
    expectations are that any storms development over the next couple of
    hours within the discussion area should remain isolated enough so as
    to preclude the need for WW issuance.  We will continue to monitor
    cumulus/convective development across this region, for any signs
    that coverage could become greater in the short term than is
    currently anticipated.
    
    Late this afternoon into early evening, as convection progresses
    eastward across the South Plains/Transpecos region, increased
    development/upscale growth -- in conjunction with initial low-level
    jet development -- will result in more widespread potential for
    severe weather, and attendant need for WW issuance.
    
    ..Goss/Guyer.. 06/18/2019
    
    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
    
    ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
    
    LAT...LON   30410478 33360511 34500518 35170372 34780215 32090162
                30580095 29860165 29770267 28920322 29560444 30410478 
    
    
    Read more

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Rich Fleetwood

Rich is the founder of SurvivalRing, now in it's 20th year, author of multimedia CDs and DVDs, loves the outdoors, his family, his geeky skill-set, and lives in rural Missouri, just a few miles from the Big Muddy. Always ready to help others, he shares what he learns on multiple blogs, social sites, and more. With a background in preparedness and survival skills, training with county, state, and national organizations, and skills in all areas of media and on air experience in live radio and television, Rich is always thinking about the "big picture", when it comes to helping individuals and families prepare for life's little surprises. Since 1997, he has provided guidance, authentic government survival history, and commentary on why we all need to get ready for that fateful day in the future, when we have to get our hands dirty and step in to save the day. He is an award winning videographer (2005 Telly Award), has received state and national scholarly recognition (2006 New Century Scholar and All USA Academic Team), and is a natural with computers, technology, gadgets, small furry mammals, and anything on wheels. Rich likes making friends, solving problems, and creating solutions to everyday issues. He doesn't mind mixing things up, when there is a teaching moment ready to happen. As a constitutional conservative, he's staying quite busy these days. The SurvivalRing Radio Show at www.survivalringradio.com will be coming back SOON!

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