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NOAA – Storm Prediction Center – Feed For SPC Mesoscale Discussions
- Tue, 18 Jun 2019 14:49:04 -0600: SPC MD 1121 - SPC Mesoscale Discussions
MD 1121 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1121 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019 Areas affected...North central Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 182029Z - 182130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Storms are developing along a confluence zone in north central Oklahoma. A watch may be needed. DISCUSSION...An area of towering cumulus extends along the I-35 corridor from the Kansas border to just north of Oklahoma City. Storms have started to develop in Grant and Garfield counties with signs in visible satellite imagery that additional storm development may occur farther south along the line. Do not expect any development south of I-40/I-44 given the weaker low-level confluence with southern extent. A modified 18Z LMN sounding shows MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg and effective shear around 25 knots. This would support some storm organization with a combination of multicell and isolated supercell storm mode. Areas north of the OK/KS border are covered by tornado watch 395, but a small severe thunderstorm watch may be needed to cover the severe threat from these storms. ..Bentley/Guyer.. 06/18/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... LAT...LON 36929822 36989782 36979714 36939678 36979571 36369590 35879631 35609688 35509728 35449768 36109801 36549814 36929822Read more
- Tue, 18 Jun 2019 14:48:04 -0600: SPC MD 1122 - SPC Mesoscale Discussions
MD 1122 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 394... FOR MID-ATLANTIC REGION
Mesoscale Discussion 1122 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019 Areas affected...Mid-Atlantic region Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 394... Valid 182047Z - 182215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 394 continues. SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms remain across the watch. Additional thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon. Hail and wind will be the primary threats with the strongest storms, although a tornado cannot be ruled out. DISCUSSION...An unstable (approximately 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE) and weakly capped environment remains in place across the Mid-Atlantic region. Despite midlevel flow around 40-50 knots, low and midlevel flow is generally westerly across the region limiting deep-layer shear to around 30-40 knots. This is also contributing to generally little-to-weak near-surface convergence. The lack of stronger low-level convergence has limited overall thunderstorm coverage at present -- and may continue to do so during the afternoon. However, given the larger-scale environment, the potential remains for at least brief/isolated severe wind/hail with any robust updraft. Across northeast portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #394 (northern New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania), the presence of backed low-level winds may support a brief tornado or two. ..Marsh.. 06/18/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK... LAT...LON 38047880 39327768 39227747 39367695 39707674 39737610 40127591 40767484 40577426 40227363 39487382 39057425 38647470 38027484 37697503 37497532 37487576 37597595 37617636 37747652 37787697 37977709 37787737 37987769 37747780 37997832 37747850 37757869 38047880Read more
- Tue, 18 Jun 2019 13:21:04 -0600: SPC MD 1119 - SPC Mesoscale Discussions
MD 1119 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS VICINITY INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1119 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019 Areas affected...Texas South Plains vicinity into western North Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 181920Z - 182115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe risk should gradually evolve this afternoon, with increasing risk expected into this evening. While a WW may be needed this afternoon, current expectation is that greater need may evolve into early evening. DISCUSSION...Latest objective analysis shows a moistening of the low-level airmass in the wake of earlier convection that has since shifted southeast across Texas and dissipated. Combined with daytime heating, mixed-layer CAPE now in excess of 3000 J/kg is indicated. Despite the CAPE, the cu field remains hindered across the region at this time, in line with model soundings which suggest persistent capping/weak short-wave ridging across the area. Within the past hour, one lone cell attempted to initiate southwest of Childress, but has failed to sustain itself. In the shorter term, an isolated storm or two may evolve -- and if so would be accompanied by risk for damaging winds and hail, given the degree of CAPE and moderately sheared environment. However, present indications are that greater risk -- and thus greater likelihood for WW issuance -- will become greater late this afternoon and early this evening, particularly as the low-level jet begins to develop. ..Goss/Guyer.. 06/18/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 31960129 33990188 34580108 34349960 33439894 31689980 31960129Read more
- Tue, 18 Jun 2019 13:20:04 -0600: SPC MD 1118 - SPC Mesoscale Discussions
MD 1118 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN VIRGINIA/NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 1118 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019 Areas affected...Southern Virginia/northern North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 181919Z - 182115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Risk for locally damaging winds -- and possibly marginal hail -- will exist with a couple of the strongest storms this afternoon. WW is not expected, due to isolated/limited nature of the risk. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows storms developing either side of the VA/NC border, within an airmass that has become moderately unstable (2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE) due to heating of the seasonably moist boundary-layer. Low-level flow across this region remains weak, but area VWPs indicate some enhancement to the mid-level west-southwest flow -- which is on the order of 30 to 40 kt. As such, a few stronger updrafts will likely emerge from time to time, accompanied by attendant risk for gusty/locally damaging winds. Overall, degree of risk will likely remain tempered -- at least in part due to an overall lack of forcing, beneath weak short-wave ridging aloft ahead of the central Gulf Coast region upper disturbance. As such, WW is not anticipated across this area this afternoon, before storms begin to diurnally weaken this evening. ..Goss/Guyer.. 06/18/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP... LAT...LON 37557574 37037536 36317698 36118020 35978183 36798119 37667938 37557574Read more
- Tue, 18 Jun 2019 12:26:03 -0600: SPC MD 1117 - SPC Mesoscale Discussions
MD 1117 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS INTO THE TRANSPECOS/SOUTH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 1117 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019 Areas affected...eastern New Mexico and far West Texas into the Transpecos/South Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 181825Z - 182100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated storms may develop over the next 1-2 hours, with more widespread development expected later. While eventual WW issuance may be needed eastward across western and central Texas, need for a watch in the shorter term, westward into far West Texas and eastern New Mexico, remains uncertain. DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows some deeper cumulus increasing over the higher terrain of central/south-central New Mexico, and southward across portions of the Davis Mountains. This convection is on the western fringe of the instability gradient, and is evolving in line with various CAM runs which show isolated storm initiation in the 19Z to 20Z time frame across this region. Weak short-wave ridging -- and associated weak subsidence -- is expected to maintain a largely capped boundary layer, such that development should remain initially isolated. With that said, steep lapse rates aloft/moderate CAPE combined with enough veering and increase of the flow with height to yield modest shear, would support severe potential with any sustained storm. Still, current expectations are that any storms development over the next couple of hours within the discussion area should remain isolated enough so as to preclude the need for WW issuance. We will continue to monitor cumulus/convective development across this region, for any signs that coverage could become greater in the short term than is currently anticipated. Late this afternoon into early evening, as convection progresses eastward across the South Plains/Transpecos region, increased development/upscale growth -- in conjunction with initial low-level jet development -- will result in more widespread potential for severe weather, and attendant need for WW issuance. ..Goss/Guyer.. 06/18/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 30410478 33360511 34500518 35170372 34780215 32090162 30580095 29860165 29770267 28920322 29560444 30410478Read more
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