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Rich Fleetwood on Survival & Preparedness - Founded/Established 1997

NOAA SPC – Forecasts

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Rich

NOAA – Storm Prediction Center – Feed For tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks:

  • Wed, 19 Sep 2018 18:00:03 -0600: SPC MD 1480 - SPC Forecast Products
    MD 1480 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN/CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA
    MD 1480 Image
    
    Mesoscale Discussion 1480
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0531 PM CDT Wed Sep 19 2018
    
    Areas affected...Portions of southwestern/central/northeastern
    Nebraska
    
    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 
    
    Valid 192231Z - 200030Z
    
    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
    
    SUMMARY...Storms will likely initiate along a slow moving front
    within the next hour or two. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will
    be the primary threats. A WW is possible.
    
    DISCUSSION...An area of agitated cumulus, on visible satellite
    imagery, near the slow moving front in southwest Nebraska has
    persisted over the past hour. Given the long residence time of
    parcels within the zone of ascent as compared to the warm front
    farther east, this appears to be the most likely area for initial
    storm development. SPC objective analysis shows mid-level lapse
    rates of 7.5-8 C/km and 50-70 kts of effective deep layer shear.
    Given this environment, a few instances of large hail are possible.
    Isolated severe wind gusts will also be possible with the strongest
    cells. While enhanced SRH near the warm front is supportive of
    low-level rotation, storms that form are expected to quickly move
    north of the boundary which should limit the overall tornado threat.
    A WW is possible.
    
    ..Wendt/Thompson.. 09/19/2018
    
    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
    
    ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...
    
    LAT...LON   41110130 41720060 42349869 42629698 41769634 41229835
                40550046 40260106 40380146 40790168 41110130 
    
    
    Read more
  • Wed, 19 Sep 2018 17:59:07 -0600: SPC - No watches are valid as of Thu Sep 20 00:00:03 UTC 2018 - SPC Forecast Products
    No watches are valid as of Thu Sep 20 00:00:03 UTC 2018.
  • Wed, 19 Sep 2018 13:55:55 -0600: SPC Sep 19, 2018 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
    SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
    Day 1 Outlook Image
    Day 1 Convective Outlook  
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0250 PM CDT Wed Sep 19 2018
    
    Valid 192000Z - 201200Z
    
    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
    THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
    
    ...SUMMARY...
    A few severe storms, mainly with a threat for hail and damaging
    winds, are possible across parts of the north-central Plains to
    upper Mississippi Valley.
    
    ...NE/IA...
    For the 20Z update, we extended the existing 2% tornado area
    westward along/north of the outflow boundary in NE, where several
    more hours of heating will continue to destabilize the air mass, and
    where low level shear is conditionally favorable for a supercell.
    However, warming aloft may have a tendency to counteract the
    otherwise favorable factors. A storm or two may eventually form
    later this afternoon, with hail most likely, but with a conditional
    threat of a brief/likely weak tornado.
    
    ..Jewell.. 09/19/2018
    
    .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT Wed Sep 19 2018/
    
    ...Central Plains to Upper Mississippi Valley...
    Morning water vapor loop shows an expansive upper ridge across the
    central/southern US, with the southern fringe of stronger westerlies
    extending from WY into parts of NE/IA/IL.  Multiple rounds of
    convection have resulted in a complex zone of surface boundaries
    from CO to IA, which will aid in the initiation of storms later
    today.  It appears likely that a few clusters of strong to
    occasionally severe storms will intensify during the peak-heating
    hours this afternoon and evening, with hail and locally damaging
    wind gusts possible.  Sufficient deep-layer shear will promote a few
    rotating cells, but the overall organization of the clusters will
    likely be limited.  Thus will maintain the ongoing MRGL risk
    designation.
    
    
    Read more

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Updated: March 6, 2011 — 3:22 am

The Author

Rich Fleetwood

Rich is the founder of SurvivalRing, now in it's 20th year, author of multimedia CDs and DVDs, loves the outdoors, his family, his geeky skill-set, and lives in rural Missouri, just a few miles from the Big Muddy. Always ready to help others, he shares what he learns on multiple blogs, social sites, and more. With a background in preparedness and survival skills, training with county, state, and national organizations, and skills in all areas of media and on air experience in live radio and television, Rich is always thinking about the "big picture", when it comes to helping individuals and families prepare for life's little surprises. Since 1997, he has provided guidance, authentic government survival history, and commentary on why we all need to get ready for that fateful day in the future, when we have to get our hands dirty and step in to save the day. He is an award winning videographer (2005 Telly Award), has received state and national scholarly recognition (2006 New Century Scholar and All USA Academic Team), and is a natural with computers, technology, gadgets, small furry mammals, and anything on wheels. Rich likes making friends, solving problems, and creating solutions to everyday issues. He doesn't mind mixing things up, when there is a teaching moment ready to happen. As a constitutional conservative, he's staying quite busy these days. The SurvivalRing Radio Show at www.survivalringradio.com will be coming back SOON!

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