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NOAA – Storm Prediction Center – Feed For tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks:
- Fri, 17 Sep 2021 00:01:39 -0600: SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... Widespread elevated fire weather conditions are likely this afternoon across portions of the Great Basin, northern Sierra, and northern Rockies. This activity will largely be driven by strengthening mid and upper-level flow across the West as an upper trough shifts into the Pacific Northwest. A modest surge of moisture into the southern Great Basin will introduce the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms for southern NV. ...northern Sierra... The approach of the upper-level wave into the Pacific Northwest will induce broad surface pressure falls across eastern WA/OR and northwest NV. In response, west to southwesterly winds will increase to around 15 mph. Terrain influences will likely result in stronger winds in the immediate lee of the Sierra. Downslope warming and drying will support RH reductions into the teens, and possibly upper single digits. While elevated conditions are likely, modest fuel readiness will yield an overall modest fire weather threat. ...Great Basin to southern Wyoming... A weak upper-level wave noted in morning water-vapor imagery will shift into the southern Great Basin through the day. Strengthening southerly downslope flow will result in breezy conditions across southern NV. Winds between 15-20 mph will likely coincide with RH reductions into the 10-15% range during the early afternoon hours. Elevated conditions appear probable, and a few locations in southern NV may see transient critical conditions. Increasing rain/thunderstorm chances during the late afternoon and evening hours may limit the duration of the threat and aid in RH recoveries. Further to the northeast, more localized elevated conditions are expected across UT and southwest WY, but may linger well into the late afternoon hours. ...northern Rockies... Lee troughing in the lee of the Canadian Rockies juxtaposed next to a surface high over the northern Plains will support strengthening southerly winds across the northern Rockies. Sustained winds between 15-20 mph are likely with gusts up to 25-30 mph possible. An unseasonably dry air mass over MT coupled with some downslope influences will yield RH values in the single digits to low teens, supporting elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. The highest potential for critical conditions will reside across northeast ID into adjacent areas of MT where fuels are near the 97th percentile, RH values below 10% are likely, and terrain influences will support pockets of 20+ mph winds. However, confidence in the coverage and duration of these conditions remains too low for a critical area. ..Moore.. 09/17/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more - Thu, 16 Sep 2021 23:54:03 -0600: SPC MD 1765 - SPC Forecast Products
MD 1765 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN MN...NORTHWEST IA
Mesoscale Discussion 1765 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021 Areas affected...southern MN...northwest IA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 170553Z - 170700Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe gusts are possible as a squall line moves east across southern MN. DISCUSSION...Latest surface mesoanalysis places a pre-frontal boundary oriented from southwest MN northeastward into parts of central MN ahead of a squall line advancing east. The surface wind shift will probably continue to serve as a focus area for the northern periphery of stronger outflow winds. South of the boundary, surface temperatures are warmer with low-mid 70s observed. The Sioux Falls, SD 88D VAD showed a strong southwesterly LLJ this evening (50+ kt) beneath a weakness in flow evident in the hodograph in the 3-6 km AGL layer, surmounted by stronger flow above (50-65 kt in the 6-9 km layer). This wind profile undoubtedly favors a squall line mode. It appears the orientation of the squall line is at least marginally favorable with respect to the mean flow in the 1-6 km layer. So despite appreciable convective inhibition from a slow-to-cool boundary layer, the strength of the wind field may continue to enable localized severe gusts with the squall line. A plethora of surface observations during the past hour seem support this notion (e.g., KFSD, KPQN, KBKX) with gusts ranging mainly in the 40-45 kt range. ..Smith/Guyer.. 09/17/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... LAT...LON 45259369 44569570 43659589 42819651 43079496 43499342 44169286 45029294 45259369Read more - Thu, 16 Sep 2021 23:45:43 -0600: SPC Sep 17, 2021 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears negligible across the U.S. Saturday through Saturday night. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that generally zonal westerlies, across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific through North America, will undergo amplification through this period. It appears that this will include large-scale mid-level troughing evolving across the northeastern Pacific into the northwestern U.S. and western Canada. Within this regime, one significant short wave trough is forecast to accelerate inland across the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast, before continuing across the Canadian Rockies and Prairies accompanied by the development of a broad and deep surface cyclone. To the south of this feature, deepening surface troughing appears likely through much of the higher U.S. Great Plains. This may be accompanied by modest low-level moisture return on southerly flow, but this will occur beneath a narrow plume of warming and capping elevated mixed-layer air. An upstream short wave trough is forecast to dig into the U.S. Pacific Northwest by 12Z Sunday. The leading edge of stronger mid-level cooling aloft (500 mb temps of -20 to -22C) associated with this feature may begin to spread inland across the Pacific Northwest coast Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. It is possible that this could contribute to instability sufficient for a few weak thunderstorms, but probabilities generally appear near the minimum threshold for a categorical thunderstorm area. In response to the progression of the trailing perturbation, weak mid-level troughing emerging from the subtropical eastern Pacific likely will accelerate northeastward, inland of the southern California coast. It may become increasingly sheared as it does, but low/mid-level moistening ahead of it may contribute to scattered thunderstorm activity Saturday across parts of the eastern Great Basin and Colorado Plateau into adjacent portions of the Rockies. Downstream of the building mid-level ridge, it appears that another significant short wave trough will rapidly progress across Quebec through Newfoundland and Labrador and portions of the Canadian Maritimes. This will be accompanied by the southeastward progression of another cold front across the lower Great Lakes, much of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic. However, in the wake of a possible developing tropical cyclone east of the north Atlantic coast, it appears that the environment will generally only become conducive to widely scattered, weak thunderstorm activity. Seasonably high moisture content is expected to remain confined to a plume shunted off the northern and middle Atlantic coast, in the wake of the tropical perturbation, but still trailing southwestward and westward, inland across much of the Southeast, ahead of weak mid-level troughing over the lower Mississippi Valley/northwestern Gulf Coast. This may contribute to fairly numerous, but generally weak, thunderstorm activity with daytime heating Saturday. ..Kerr.. 09/17/2021
Read more - Thu, 16 Sep 2021 23:43:27 -0600: SPC Sep 17, 2021 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous United States today. However, a few strong storms are possible across parts of west Texas, and southern Arizona during the late afternoon. ...Great Lakes into the central Plains and into west TX... A fast-moving and deep upper trough will move from the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes through 00Z, lifting east/northeast into Quebec overnight. At the surface, a cold front will extend roughly from Lake Michigan into central KS and the TX Panhandle by 21Z, with 60s F dewpoints ahead of it. The strongest lift the upper trough will quickly depart the Upper MI/Lake Superior region, leaving behind weakening convergence along the boundary. Still, heating and sufficient moisture, as well as residual cool air aloft will likely yield regenerating storms along the front, from IL/WI southwestward into KS and western OK. Shear will be weak in these areas, with only short-lived updrafts likely. Other storms are expected to form during the peak heating hours from the TX Panhandle into the South Plains. Here, lapse rates will be steep below 500 mb, and could result in locally strong wind gusts. Most CAMs show storms initiating across the eastern TX Panhandle, propagating south/southwestward. ...Far southern AZ... Gulf moisture will begin to return to the border region of southern Arizona, possibly contributing to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE by late afternoon. Heating will result in inverted-V profiles, and a few storms may develop in this regime by late afternoon or early evening. Isolated, strong convective gusts cannot be ruled out, but being diurnally driven in a weak shear environment, any severe wind risk appears limited in magnitude, space and time. ..Jewell/Moore.. 09/17/2021
Read more - Thu, 16 Sep 2021 20:49:06 -0600: SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 505 Status Reports - SPC Forecast Products
WW 0505 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 505 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW MKT TO 35 NE RWF TO 25 NE STC. ..BROYLES..09/17/21 ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 505 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC059-085-141-171-170340- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ISANTI MCLEOD SHERBURNE WRIGHT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more - Thu, 16 Sep 2021 20:49:05 -0600: SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 506 Status Reports - SPC Forecast Products
WW 0506 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 506 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..09/17/21 ATTN...WFO...LBF...GID...FSD...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 506 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC009-015-017-031-041-047-071-075-077-089-091-103-111-113-115- 117-149-163-171-175-183-170340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE BOYD BROWN CHERRY CUSTER DAWSON GARFIELD GRANT GREELEY HOLT HOOKER KEYA PAHA LINCOLN LOGAN LOUP MCPHERSON ROCK SHERMAN THOMAS VALLEY WHEELER SDC003-015-023-035-043-053-121-123-170340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AURORA BRULE CHARLES MIX DAVISON DOUGLAS GREGORY TODD TRIPP THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
Read more - Thu, 16 Sep 2021 20:49:05 -0600: SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 506 - SPC Forecast Products
WW 506 SEVERE TSTM NE SD 170115Z - 170800ZURGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 506 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 815 PM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and western Nebraska Southern South Dakota * Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 815 PM until 300 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Growing clusters of thunderstorms on either side of a slow-moving cold front should pose a severe hail/wind threat, as they access a strengthening low-level jet, and move east- northeastward across the watch area tonight. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles south southwest of Mullen NE to 30 miles northeast of Oneill NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 504...WW 505... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 24030. ...EdwardsRead more - Thu, 16 Sep 2021 20:48:05 -0600: SPC Tornado Watch 504 Status Reports - SPC Forecast Products
WW 0504 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 504 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N STC TO 45 ENE BRD TO 20 SSW BFW. ..BROYLES..09/17/21 ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 504 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC001-017-065-095-115-170340- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN CARLTON KANABEC MILLE LACS PINE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
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