Below are some of my favorite websites, showing their latest content from RSS feeds.
If you’d like recommend a website feed to add here, please post a comment with your request.
Rich
NOAA – Storm Prediction Center – Feed For tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks:
- Mon, 14 Jun 2021 18:00:09 -0600: SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 270 Status Reports - SPC Forecast Products
WW 0270 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 270 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW HGR TO 35 WNW ILG TO 40 E CXY TO 30 W ABE TO 30 SSE MSV. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0972 ..MOORE..06/14/21 ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...BGM... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 270 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NJC005-007-015-019-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-037-041-150040- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BURLINGTON CAMDEN GLOUCESTER HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX MONMOUTH MORRIS OCEAN SALEM SOMERSET SUSSEX WARREN PAC011-017-029-045-077-091-095-101-150040- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKS BUCKS CHESTER DELAWARE LEHIGH MONTGOMERY NORTHAMPTON PHILADELPHIA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
Read more - Mon, 14 Jun 2021 18:00:08 -0600: SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 271 Status Reports - SPC Forecast Products
WW 0271 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 271 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0974 ..MOORE..06/14/21 ATTN...WFO...LWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 271 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MDC001-023-043-150040- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY GARRETT WASHINGTON VAC043-069-139-171-187-840-150040- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARKE FREDERICK PAGE SHENANDOAH WARREN VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE WINCHESTER WVC003-023-027-031-037-057-065-150040-
Read more - Mon, 14 Jun 2021 18:00:06 -0600: SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 271 - SPC Forecast Products
WW 271 SEVERE TSTM MD VA WV 142000Z - 150100ZURGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 271 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 400 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Maryland Panhandle Northern Virginia Eastern West Virginia Panhandle * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Discrete cells should spread east-southeast from southwest Pennsylvania and may develop south across the eastern West Virginia Panhandle. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 75 miles west of Martinsburg WV to 20 miles south southeast of Martinsburg WV. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 269...WW 270... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30030. ...Grams
Read more - Mon, 14 Jun 2021 18:00:05 -0600: SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 272 Status Reports - SPC Forecast Products
WW 0272 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 272 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW PKB TO 40 E PKB TO 10 S MGW TO 30 ENE MGW. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0974 ..MOORE..06/14/21 ATTN...WFO...RLX...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 272 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WVC001-017-033-041-049-077-083-085-091-093-097-107-150040- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBOUR DODDRIDGE HARRISON LEWIS MARION PRESTON RANDOLPH RITCHIE TAYLOR TUCKER UPSHUR WOOD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more - Mon, 14 Jun 2021 18:00:04 -0600: SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 273 Status Reports - SPC Forecast Products
WW 0273 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0273 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more - Mon, 14 Jun 2021 18:00:04 -0600: SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 272 - SPC Forecast Products
WW 272 SEVERE TSTM WV 142055Z - 150100ZURGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 272 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 455 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern West Virginia * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 455 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A cluster with embedded supercell structures may develop from thunderstorms currently in southeast Ohio, as they spread across northern West Virginia through about dusk. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles east northeast of Elkins WV to 20 miles north of Parkersburg WV. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 269...WW 270...WW 271... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29030. ...Grams
Read more - Mon, 14 Jun 2021 18:00:04 -0600: SPC MD 973 - SPC Forecast Products
MD 0973 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHERN VIRGINIA INTO MARYLAND AND DELAWARE
Mesoscale Discussion 0973 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0541 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Areas affected...Northern Virginia into Maryland and Delaware Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 142241Z - 150045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The environment ahead of an approaching cold front is supportive for strong to severe thunderstorms across northern Virginia, eastern Maryland, and Delaware. Storms along, and possibly ahead of the front will pose a risk for severe hail and damaging wind into the evening hours. DISCUSSION...Strong convection continues to develop along a cold front across southern PA into northern WV, resulting in a few wind damage reports as they move to the east. Ahead of this front across northern VA and MD, temperatures in the 80s and low 90s with dewpoints in the 60s are supporting 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE with minimal inhibition per RAP mesoanalysis estimates. Additionally, strong upper-level flow over the region is supporting 40-50 knots of effective bulk shear, which will help organize any convection that develops in this thermodynamic environment. Thunderstorms will likely move into the northern VA region by 00 UTC along the front, but convective development ahead of the front within a subtle lee trough (where a growing field of cumulus is noted in recent GOES imagery) is possible in the coming hours. Shear vectors oriented nearly along the front should support semi-discrete to linear clusters that will pose a hail and damaging wind risk. While there is some uncertainty regarding the exact timing of storm arrival and the potential for increasing MLCIN after 01 UTC with the onset of diurnal cooling, the environment should generally remain supportive of a severe risk into the evening hours. A watch will likely be needed to cover this threat. ..Moore/Guyer.. 06/14/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 38557889 39097795 39457739 39747686 39967608 39817514 39127509 38317535 37977597 37887654 37957706 38027767 38207894 38557889Read more - Mon, 14 Jun 2021 18:00:04 -0600: SPC MD 972 - SPC Forecast Products
MD 0972 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 270... FOR EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0972 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0518 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Areas affected...Eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 270... Valid 142218Z - 150015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 270 continues. SUMMARY...The environment ahead of an approaching cold front will remain supportive of strong to severe thunderstorms across WW 270 over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis of observations across the Mid-Atlantic show a cold front continuing to push eastward across central to eastern PA. Ahead of this front temperatures remain in the 80s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. This warm/moist boundary layer is supporting upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE with limited inhibition per recent mesoanalysis estimates. Recent GOES visible imagery shows agitated cumulus and a few convective towers across eastern PA into northern NJ, which support the thermodynamic estimates. Effective bulk shear values near 50 knots will help organized any stronger updrafts that develop along the front, and shear/boundary orientations suggest a mixture of embedded discrete and linear clusters that will pose a hail/damaging wind threat over the next few hours. ..Moore.. 06/14/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 40227660 40487610 40847528 41207483 41277422 41007383 40517378 39967394 39447420 39257470 39327523 39517580 39837646 40227660Read more - Mon, 14 Jun 2021 18:00:03 -0600: SPC MD 974 - SPC Forecast Products
MD 0974 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 271...272... FOR NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...WESTERN MARYLAND AND FAR NORTHWEST VIRGINIA.
Mesoscale Discussion 0974 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Areas affected...Northern West Virginia...western Maryland and far northwest Virginia. Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 271...272... Valid 142337Z - 150130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 271, 272 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across WW 271 as well as WW 272. Damaging winds will continue to be the primary hazard, but a few instances of severe hail remain possible. Given coming watch expirations in the next 1-2 hours, local extensions may be needed before storms exit the watch areas. DISCUSSION...Several damaging wind reports, as well as a few instances of quarter-sized hail, have been noted with a broken line of storms across northern WV over the past 1-2 hours. Although these storms have primarily been discrete to semi-discrete, regional reflectivity and velocity data suggests that at least one or two cells are beginning to develop organized outflows and take on more linear characteristics. This is the expected evolution given storm motion and deep-layer shear orientation to the initiating cold front, and may support an increasing damaging wind threat in the coming hours (though isolated severe hail will remain possible). One mitigating factor is reduced instability immediately ahead of these storms as they move across the higher terrain of northeast WV where temperatures and dewpoints are cooler compared to surrounding locations. However, re-intensification is possible as storms transverse the terrain and move into a more unstable air mass across northwest VA (see MCD 973 for details). ..Moore.. 06/14/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LWX...PBZ...RLX... LAT...LON 39158144 39438056 39657966 39717896 39677797 39267789 38877830 38577863 38497925 38658006 38908095 39018155 39158144Read more - Mon, 14 Jun 2021 17:50:03 -0600: SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 270 - SPC Forecast Products
WW 270 SEVERE TSTM DE NJ PA CW 141805Z - 150100ZURGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 270 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 205 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Delaware New Jersey Eastern Pennsylvania Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 205 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A cluster with splitting cells should evolve east from western Pennsylvania. Additional cells may form near the Delaware Valley, before spreading east towards the New Jersey coast. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles northwest of Harrisburg PA to 20 miles north northeast of Lakehurst NJ. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 269... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29035. ...Grams
Read more - Mon, 14 Jun 2021 17:25:04 -0600: SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 273 - SPC Forecast Products
WW 273 SEVERE TSTM DC DE MD NJ VA CW 142325Z - 150600ZURGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 273 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 725 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Delaware Central and Eastern Maryland Southern New Jersey Northern and Eastern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 725 PM until 200 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Clusters of storms are expected to develop and/or move into the region from the west-northwest this evening, with an increasing potential for damaging winds, some severe hail, and possibly a brief tornado risk. The downstream air mass is warm and unstable. The severe risk is expected to continue well into the late evening and early overnight hours before storms weaken and/or clear the coast. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles east southeast of Dover DE to 50 miles west of Washington DC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 270...WW 271...WW 272... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29030. ...Guyer
Read more - Mon, 14 Jun 2021 14:34:04 -0600: SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 269 Status Reports - SPC Forecast Products
WW 0269 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 269 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE ZZV TO 10 SSE LBE TO 30 WSW UNV TO 35 ESE UNV. ..GLEASON..06/14/21 ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 269 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC013-059-111-121-142140- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELMONT GUERNSEY MONROE NOBLE PAC009-013-021-051-057-059-061-087-111-125-129-142140- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEDFORD BLAIR CAMBRIA FAYETTE FULTON GREENE HUNTINGDON MIFFLIN SOMERSET WASHINGTON WESTMORELAND WVC049-051-061-069-077-103-142140- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
Read more - Mon, 14 Jun 2021 14:02:34 -0600: SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA... Expanded the elevated delineation northeastward into north-central Montana and into north-central Wyoming. Very deep mixing is expected amid strengthening deep-layer flow. A wind shift is also forecast across northern Montana during the afternoon. This will cool surface temperatures somewhat, but winds expected to increase substantially and thus could lead to rapidly changing conditions near any ongoing fires. In addition, added a small critical area from southwest Montana into south-central Montana. This is where the strongest mid-level winds (50-60 mph) are expected to overspread the well-mixed airmass. Multiple fires are also ongoing in this region which will likely be impacted by these strong winds. ..Bentley.. 06/14/2021 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough, currently residing off the West Coast, is forecast to translate across the Pacific Northwest through the day Tuesday. Resulting surface pressure falls ahead of this wave will help consolidate a surface low over the northern Rockies with a trailing trough across the Great Basin. This will help strengthen pressure-gradient winds again Tuesday afternoon across the broader West, with the strongest winds expected over parts of the Great Basin under a mid-level flow maximum. Building high pressure behind the main synoptic wave will augment pressure-gradient winds across parts of southern California, resulting in increased fire weather concerns. ...Great Basin... Little to no moisture recovery will yield another day of single digit RH values across much of the Great Basin. Fuels are largely receptive across most of the region, and may experience further curing after Monday's hot/dry conditions. Surface winds are forecast to increase through the day to 15-25 mph across a large swath of the Great Basin and northern Rockies within the synoptic trough. A belt of stronger mid-level flow is forecast to reside over the Great Basin, which will likely mix down to the surface and support 25-35 mph wind gusts thanks to deep boundary-layer mixing. This corridor will see the highest potential for sustained critical conditions with elevated conditions likely as far north as north-central MT (though fuels across central/northern MT may not be as receptive as compared to locations farther south). ...Southern California... Building high pressure over northern CA Tuesday will help drive a -4 to -5 mb KSMX/KSBA pressure gradient. Northerly Sundowner winds to 30-40 mph (and perhaps locally stronger) are expected Tuesday into Tuesday night across the coastal foothills of Santa Barbara county. Warm temperatures and downslope warming/drying will aid in RH reductions into the teens, and perhaps single digits for a few locations. With ERC values increasing due to limited rainfall in recent weeks, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear likely. ...Arizona into New Mexico... Mid-level moisture is forecast to gradually shift west within the weak easterly flow regime on the southern periphery of an upper-level high over the Four Corners. Thermodynamic profiles are forecast to be supportive of a few dry thunderstorms with deep boundary-layer mixing and limited, but sufficient, instability. Recent ensemble guidance has a stronger QPF signal compared to previous days, indicating that at least a mixture of wet and dry storms is possible. However, fuels across this area are receptive to dry lightning strikes with several large fires noted across the AZ/NM region. In addition to the dry lightning threat, southeasterly winds will likely increase to 15-20 mph by late afternoon across southeast AZ/southwest NM as the southern extension of the main synoptic trough diurnally deepens amid very warm temperatures. Relative humidity values in the single digits to low teens are expected, which will support elevated fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more - Mon, 14 Jun 2021 13:44:47 -0600: SPC Jun 14, 2021 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging wind gusts appear most likely across parts of the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic regions through tonight. ...20Z Outlook Update... Some adjustments have been made to categorical and probabilistic lines to account for latest trends in model output, destabilization and progression of synoptic features. Across the Appalachians/northern Mid Atlantic Coast region, moderate to strong boundary-layer destabilization is largely confined to the coastal plain, near/east of lee surface troughing, with modest destabilization also ongoing across parts of the Allegheny Plateau. Across the valleys to the east of the Allegheny Front, downslope drying has resulted in a corridor of weak to negligible instability, which may inhibit ongoing convection, at least until its remnants reach the coastal plain this evening. There is still some signal in model output of renewed thunderstorm development across parts of northeastern West Virginia by this evening, in response to forcing for ascent downstream of the next perturbation digging southeast of the Great Lakes region (and contributing to more substantive larger-scale trough amplification). This activity may intensify while spreading across northern Virginia and central Maryland, toward coastal areas later this evening, posing a risk for severe wind and hail. ..Kerr.. 06/14/2021 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021/ ...Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic... A leading shortwave trough will gradually shift east from southern ON into NY, while an upstream trough amplifies from the Upper Great Lakes towards the central Appalachians through tonight. A belt of strong mid-level westerlies in excess of 50 kts at 500-mb should be sustained from OH to the DE Valley vicinity through this afternoon, before shifting south in advance of the upstream trough. Multiple rounds of scattered thunderstorms are expected through tonight. The first round will focus along the surface cold front across far eastern OH, western PA, and northern WV as modest buoyancy (MLCAPE of 600-1200 J/kg) develops where greater insolation is underway. A nearly straight-line and elongating hodograph with effective bulk shear increasing to near 50 kt should support a few splitting supercells embedded within an organized eastward-moving cluster. Weak mid-level lapse rates and greater boundary-layer moisture should be limiting factors to a more robust severe threat, but scattered damaging winds and isolated large hail appear possible. Convection will likely be sustained through this evening into tonight owing to the amplification of the trailing shortwave trough along with the presence of richer boundary-layer moisture across the Chesapeake region to NJ. A continued threat for damaging winds, along with a tornado will likely be maximized in these areas between 00-06Z until convection shifts offshore. ...Central High Plains... A mid-level anticyclone will remain anchored near the Four Corners with small height rises to its north through this evening across the central/northern High Plains. Forcing for ascent will be weak, but terrain circulations and an upslope low-level flow component should support isolated, high-based thunderstorm development amid a deeply mixed thermodynamic profile to the east of the higher terrain from northeast CO to eastern WY. Isolated storms may also form along a quasi-stationary front across western to central NE. Pockets of MLCAPE from 2000-2500 J/kg and effective bulk shear of 35-45 kt with mid-upper westerlies atop low-level southeasterly flow supports a conditional severe wind/hail threat. ...Southwest TX... A southwest-moving MCV should progress towards the Trans-Pecos through this evening. On the southern and eastern fringes of ongoing convection, strong surface heating/mixing will result in moderate buoyancy and inverted-v profiles. New storm development during the afternoon near the MCV could pose a threat for isolated strong/damaging downbursts. ...Eastern OR/WA to MT... A shortwave impulse embedded within the broad upper trough off the West Coast should eject inland into OR/WA tonight. A large swath of strong but meridional mid-level flow should further strengthen in association with this wave. While buoyancy will likely remain weak, the highly elongated hodographs yield a conditional threat of a supercell this evening across northeast OR/eastern WA. More likely, elevated convection is anticipated overnight where residual steep mid-level lapse rates may support isolated severe hail and gusty winds with convection that develops in this region through the ID Panhandle. Farther east, isolated high-based convection should develop off the higher terrain of the northern Rockies despite the presence of the nearby ridge axis. Flow aloft will be weak, but the very deeply mixed thermodynamic profiles warrant a risk for isolated severe winds.
Read more
FEEDS FAIR USE: All links on these feeds go directly to the Author’s website and original posts. Only sites that offer RSS (Really Simple Syndication) feeds will be added to the SurvivalRing FEEDS section.
FEEDS DISCLAIMER: All content share via these RSS feeds are the responsibility of the ORIGINAL AUTHOR. I, Richard Fleetwood, owner and founder of SurvivalRing, may or may not agree with some, any, or all of the FEED CONTENT shared by these websites. We offers these feeds SOLELY to help spread awareness of great content resources. These FEEDS may disappear at any time, due to content changes, removal requests, technical issues, or lack of interest. Please visit the ORIGINAL AUTHOR’S website and BOOKMARK their URLs to your browser.
FEED REMOVAL: If you, as an owner of one of these FEEDS, would like to have me remove your RSS FEED from SurvivalRing, simply use the CONTACT ME page, with your request. I will remove your feed and links to your site.
