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NOAA – Storm Prediction Center – Feed For tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks:
- Mon, 17 Dec 2018 03:48:27 -0700: SPC - No watches are valid as of Mon Dec 17 10:49:02 UTC 2018 - SPC Forecast Products
No watches are valid as of Mon Dec 17 10:49:02 UTC 2018.
- Mon, 17 Dec 2018 01:58:57 -0700: SPC Dec 17, 2018 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CST Mon Dec 17 2018 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... Late-evening model guidance continues to suggest a substantial deepening of an eastern US trough during the latter half of the week. Significant height falls are forecast across the Gulf basin Thursday as a strong 500mb speed max rotates into and through the base of the trough before translating across the FL Peninsula. As a result, high-PW air mass should advance northward ahead of this feature and substantial instability appears likely to evolve across the southern FL Peninsula prior to a strong cold frontal passage. Given that strong shear will overspread this region, organized severe convection appears possible, especially if buoyancy can return to FL as currently forecast. Beyond day4, higher-instability air mass will be shunted offshore and the threat for severe convection is minimized.Read more
- Mon, 17 Dec 2018 00:25:37 -0700: SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CST Mon Dec 17 2018 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper-level troughing is forecast over much of the central CONUS with upper-level ridging establishing over both coasts following trough passages on Tuesday. Lee troughing is likely to develop again across the southern High Plains on Tuesday, but northerly winds will lower temperatures/increase RH across much of the High Plains. Overall, fire weather concerns will be minimal across the CONUS on Tuesday. ..Nauslar.. 12/17/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more
- Mon, 17 Dec 2018 00:06:42 -0700: SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CST Mon Dec 17 2018 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level shortwave trough will continue moving eastward over the Southwest/southern High Plains on Monday following behind a weaker, shortwave trough passage. In response, lee troughing will develop across the central/southern High Plains resulting in locally enhanced winds and lower RH. Locally elevated conditions may develop across this area as sustained 15-25 mph surface winds develop in the vicinity of lee troughing and below enhanced low-level (850-700 mb) southwesterly flow (25-40 mph). However, RH values should remain mostly above 20% precluding any elevated areas. ..Nauslar.. 12/17/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more
- Mon, 17 Dec 2018 00:04:04 -0700: SPC MD 1714 - SPC Forecast Products
MD 1714 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE
Mesoscale Discussion 1714 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CST Mon Dec 17 2018 Areas affected...southern and eastern Maine Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 170703Z - 171300Z SUMMARY...Snow, perhaps mixed with freezing rain or sleet, will remain possible through the overnight hours. DISCUSSION...Frontogenesis in the 850-700-millibar layer within the warm-conveyor belt has resulted in a band of heavy precipitation along the southeast coast of Maine. This band will continue to pivot northwest through the overnight hours. In the vicinity of this band, surface temperatures have fallen below 32F, despite RAP forecasts suggesting temperatures would remain near or above 32F. Modifying the RAP soundings for the observed colder surface temperatures, wet snow is likely, but given the strength of the warm-air advection within the warm-conveyor belt, temperatures within the 850-700-millibar layer may approach, or even exceed, 0C. As such, precipitation may mix with, or change to, freezing rain or sleet overnight. ..Marsh/Goss.. 12/17/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX... LAT...LON 44197086 45246936 45826711 44936676 44246739 43256962 43007082 44197086Read more
- Sun, 16 Dec 2018 23:52:30 -0700: SPC Dec 17, 2018 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Mon Dec 17 2018 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms will be noted near the central Gulf coast Wednesday with more isolated activity possible across Florida. ...Gulf Coast/FL... Southern-stream short-wave trough will eject across south TX during the day2 period before significantly stronger 500mb flow digs southeast into the southern High Plains late Wednesday forcing a much more pronounced trough to evolve over the MS Valley. Substantial mid-level height falls over the Gulf basin are expected to induce numerous bouts of convection along a baroclinic zone that should remain mostly offshore through the period. While there is some concern that a modified Gulf air mass may approach the central coast, widespread convection will likely prevent this primary boundary from advancing inland and the prospect for severe convection should remain minimal due to expected weak buoyancy. Downstream across the FL Peninsula, 850mb flow is forecast to strengthen ahead of the trough across the southern/eastern Gulf basin toward the end of the period. This strengthening flow field should aid northward advance of more moist/buoyant air toward the southern Peninsula. Given that large-scale forcing for ascent will likely remain well west of this region will not introduce severe probs as the main corridor of convection is expected to remain over the Gulf of Mexico. ..Darrow.. 12/17/2018Read more
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