NOAA SPC – Forecasts

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NOAA – Storm Prediction Center – Feed For tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks:

  • Tue, 18 Jun 2019 14:46:03 -0600: SPC MD 1121 - SPC Forecast Products
    MD 1121 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
    MD 1121 Image
    
    Mesoscale Discussion 1121
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0329 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019
    
    Areas affected...North central Oklahoma
    
    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 
    
    Valid 182029Z - 182130Z
    
    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
    
    SUMMARY...Storms are developing along a confluence zone in north
    central Oklahoma. A watch may be needed.
    
    DISCUSSION...An area of towering cumulus extends along the I-35
    corridor from the Kansas border to just north of Oklahoma City.
    Storms have started to develop in Grant and Garfield counties with
    signs in visible satellite imagery that additional storm development
    may occur farther south along the line. Do not expect any
    development south of I-40/I-44 given the weaker low-level confluence
    with southern extent. 
    
    A modified 18Z LMN sounding shows MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg and
    effective shear around 25 knots. This would support some storm
    organization with a combination of multicell and isolated supercell
    storm mode. 
    
    Areas north of the OK/KS border are covered by tornado watch 395,
    but a small severe thunderstorm watch may be needed to cover the
    severe threat from these storms.
    
    ..Bentley/Guyer.. 06/18/2019
    
    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
    
    ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
    
    LAT...LON   36929822 36989782 36979714 36939678 36979571 36369590
                35879631 35609688 35509728 35449768 36109801 36549814
                36929822 
    
    
    Read more
  • Tue, 18 Jun 2019 14:38:04 -0600: SPC Tornado Watch 395 Status Reports - SPC Forecast Products
    WW 0395 Status Updates
    WW 0395 Status Image
    
    STATUS REPORT ON WW 395
    
    SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE GCK TO
    30 WSW RSL TO 20 E RSL TO 20 NW SLN TO 30 ENE CNK.
    
    ..BENTLEY..06/18/19
    
    ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...TOP...
    
    
    STATUS REPORT FOR WT 395 
    
    SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 
    
    KSC007-009-015-017-019-025-031-033-035-041-047-049-057-061-073-
    077-079-083-095-097-111-113-115-127-139-145-149-151-155-159-161-
    169-173-185-191-197-182140-
    
    KS 
    .    KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
    
    BARBER               BARTON              BUTLER              
    CHASE                CHAUTAUQUA          CLARK               
    COFFEY               COMANCHE            COWLEY              
    DICKINSON            EDWARDS             ELK                 
    FORD                 GEARY               GREENWOOD           
    HARPER               HARVEY              HODGEMAN            
    KINGMAN              KIOWA               LYON                
    MCPHERSON            MARION              MORRIS              
    OSAGE                PAWNEE              POTTAWATOMIE        
    PRATT                RENO                RICE                
    RILEY                SALINE              SEDGWICK            
    STAFFORD             SUMNER              WABAUNSEE           
    
    
    THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
    REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
    INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
    CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
    
    Read more
  • Tue, 18 Jun 2019 14:38:04 -0600: SPC Tornado Watch 395 - SPC Forecast Products
    WW 395 TORNADO KS 181920Z - 190300Z
    WW 0395 Image
    
    URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
    Tornado Watch Number 395
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    220 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019
    
    The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
    
    * Tornado Watch for portions of 
      South-central and Eastern Kansas
    
    * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 220 PM until
      1000 PM CDT.
    
    * Primary threats include...
      A few tornadoes likely
      Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
      Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
    
    SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms including supercells are expected to
    continue to develop initially across
    south-central/east-central/northeast Kansas this afternoon, with
    organization aided by a moderately strong belt of winds in the
    low/mid-levels. A few tornadoes are possible, if not likely, across
    the region through the afternoon/early evening. Storms may
    eventually cluster and progress more southeastward this evening
    toward/east of the I-35/I-135 corridors with a continued severe
    risk.
    
    The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles
    north and south of a line from 20 miles east of Emporia KS to 10
    miles north of Dodge City KS. For a complete depiction of the watch
    see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
    
    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
    
    REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
    tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
    area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
    threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
    and possible warnings.
    
    &&
    
    OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 394...
    
    AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
    surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
    gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
    storm motion vector 27020.
    
    ...Guyer
    
    
    Read more
  • Tue, 18 Jun 2019 14:35:06 -0600: SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 396 Status Reports - SPC Forecast Products
    WW 0396 Status Updates
    WW 0396 Status Image
    
    STATUS FOR WATCH 0396 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
    
    Read more
  • Tue, 18 Jun 2019 14:35:03 -0600: SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 396 - SPC Forecast Products
    WW 396 SEVERE TSTM CO NM OK TX 182035Z - 190400Z
    WW 0396 Image
    
    URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
    Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 396
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    235 PM MDT Tue Jun 18 2019
    
    The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
    
    * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
      Southeast Colorado
      Northeast New Mexico
      Oklahoma Panhandle
      Texas Panhandle
    
    * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 235 PM until
      1000 PM MDT.
    
    * Primary threats include...
      Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
        to 2 inches in diameter possible
      Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
      A tornado or two possible
    
    SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will continue
    to develop and intensify and otherwise move generally southeastward
    across the region through evening.
    
    The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
    statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles northwest of
    Trinidad CO to 40 miles south southeast of Elkhart KS. For a
    complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
    update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
    
    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
    
    REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
    favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
    Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
    weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
    warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
    tornadoes.
    
    &&
    
    OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 394...WW 395...
    
    AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
    2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
    few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
    30025.
    
    ...Guyer
    
    
    Read more
  • Tue, 18 Jun 2019 14:06:58 -0600: SPC Jun 18, 2019 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
    SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
    Day 1 Outlook Image
    Day 1 Convective Outlook  
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0300 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019
    
    Valid 182000Z - 191200Z
    
    ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TX
    INTO KS...
    
    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
    THE PLAINS AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC...
    
    ...SUMMARY...
    Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the
    central and southern Great Plains in multiple rounds this afternoon
    through tonight. Other severe thunderstorms are expected across the
    Mid-Atlantic region and parts of the Southeast.
    
    ...20z Update...
    
    Remnants of long-lived MCS are progressing along the I-70 corridor
    across KS. Leading edge of this activity is beginning to intensify
    over northeast KS which may propagate a bit farther downstream than
    earlier anticipated. Will expand higher severe probs across portions
    of TOP CWA to account for these trends.
    
    Strong boundary-layer heating across the High Plains has contributed
    to near-dry adiabatic low-level lapse rates from southeast CO into
    west TX. Convection will gradually expand in areal coverage along
    this corridor over the next few hours before spreading into the ENH
    Risk region.
    
    ..Darrow.. 06/18/2019
    
    .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1152 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019/
    
    ...Kansas...
    An MCV will continue to drift generally eastward across
    western/central Kansas through the afternoon and evening. A trend of
    thinning/increasingly scattered cloud cover should occur through the
    afternoon, aided by a modest MCV-peripheral dry slot. Expectations
    are for more of a southeasterly low-level wind component to
    materialize across central Kansas by mid/late afternoon, while
    enhanced mid-level winds otherwise spread eastward across the
    southern half of Kansas. Thunderstorms should initially intensify
    across central/south-central Kansas by mid-afternoon, with moderate
    buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear/modest overall forcing
    likely being conducive for semi-discrete supercells, at least for a
    few hours duration. A few tornadoes will be possible aside from
    severe hail/wind as storms spread east-southeastward toward and
    across the I-35/I-135 corridor through late afternoon and
    early/mid-evening.
    
    ...Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle to west/southwest Texas...
    Timing of the peak/most-certain severe risk is a bit questionable
    across parts of this region, but the potential exists for a
    sub-regional corridor to be impacted by multiple rounds of severe
    thunderstorms. At the very least, a conditional severe/supercell
    risk will exist as early as mid/late afternoon across the Texas
    Panhandle/Low Rolling Plains and western Oklahoma within a very
    unstable environment. However, modest convergence and a tendency for
    mid-level warming casts some uncertainty. At the very least, storms
    are likely to move into/across the region later this evening with an
    appreciable damaging wind/hail risk via one or more well-organized
    clusters.
    
    Farther south, a couple supercells should form over the higher
    terrain of the TX Trans-Pecos with a primary risk of large hail.
    Minor mid-level height rises suggest robust MLCIN will hold east of
    the Pecos River, limiting the spatial extent of this threat. A
    separate area of thunderstorms may form near the intersection of the
    dryline and residual outflow boundary trailing from the central
    Texas MCS. A deeply mixed boundary layer should support a few
    supercells that might organize into a cluster this evening. Large
    hail and severe wind should be the primary threats.
    
    ...CO Front Range/south-central High Plains...
    Scattered thunderstorm development is likely over the Raton Mesa and
    other parts of Southeast Colorado by peak heating as a minor
    mid-level impulse in Utah crosses the southern Rockies. Amid 30-40
    kt 500-mb westerlies, this activity should spread east and impinge
    on richer boundary-layer moisture in the Texas Panhandle this
    evening. At least on an isolated basis, supercells capable of large
    hail and possibly some tornado/damaging wind risk can be expected as
    storms spread east/southeastward.
    
    ...Mid-Atlantic States/Delmarva...
    An area of organized severe potential is apparent across southeast 
    PA, NJ, northern MD, and DE ahead of an MCV/weak surface cyclone
    currently over western PA. Here, some enlargement to low-level
    hodographs in conjunction with moderate boundary-layer heating of
    low 70s dew points should support a risk for a few supercells
    capable of a tornado or two and damaging winds/some hail. Refer to
    Mesoscale Discussion 1115 for additional short-term details.
    
    ...Central Gulf Coast to Carolinas...
    A belt of 20-30 kt west-southwesterly flow will persist amid
    afternoon MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. This should again foster a
    threat for mainly locally damaging wind as numerous multicells occur
    through this afternoon.
    
    ...Montana/Northern High Plains...
    Isolated strong to severe semi-low-topped thunderstorms will be
    possible this afternoon into evening within a modestly
    moist/unstable environment ahead of an
    amplifying/southeastward-moving mid-level shortwave trough.
    Well-mixed boundary layers could yield severe-caliber wind gusts
    along with some localized/marginal hail potential.
    
    
    Read more
  • Tue, 18 Jun 2019 13:21:04 -0600: SPC MD 1119 - SPC Forecast Products
    MD 1119 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS VICINITY INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
    MD 1119 Image
    
    Mesoscale Discussion 1119
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0220 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019
    
    Areas affected...Texas South Plains vicinity into western North
    Texas
    
    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 
    
    Valid 181920Z - 182115Z
    
    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
    
    SUMMARY...Isolated severe risk should gradually evolve this
    afternoon, with increasing risk expected into this evening.  While a
    WW may be needed this afternoon, current expectation is that greater
    need may evolve into early evening.
    
    DISCUSSION...Latest objective analysis shows a moistening of the
    low-level airmass in the wake of earlier convection that has since
    shifted southeast across Texas and dissipated.  Combined with
    daytime heating, mixed-layer CAPE now in excess of 3000 J/kg is
    indicated.  Despite the CAPE, the cu field remains hindered across
    the region at this time, in line with model soundings which suggest
    persistent capping/weak short-wave ridging across the area.
    
    Within the past hour, one lone cell attempted to initiate southwest
    of Childress, but has failed to sustain itself.  In the shorter
    term, an isolated storm or two may evolve -- and if so would be
    accompanied by risk for damaging winds and hail, given the degree of
    CAPE and moderately sheared environment.  However, present
    indications are that greater risk -- and thus greater likelihood for
    WW issuance -- will become greater late this afternoon and early
    this evening, particularly as the low-level jet begins to develop.
    
    ..Goss/Guyer.. 06/18/2019
    
    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
    
    ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
    
    LAT...LON   31960129 33990188 34580108 34349960 33439894 31689980
                31960129 
    
    
    Read more
  • Tue, 18 Jun 2019 13:20:04 -0600: SPC MD 1118 - SPC Forecast Products
    MD 1118 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN VIRGINIA/NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
    MD 1118 Image
    
    Mesoscale Discussion 1118
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0219 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019
    
    Areas affected...Southern Virginia/northern North Carolina
    
    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 
    
    Valid 181919Z - 182115Z
    
    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
    
    SUMMARY...Risk for locally damaging winds -- and possibly marginal
    hail -- will exist with a couple of the strongest storms this
    afternoon.  WW is not expected, due to isolated/limited nature of
    the risk.
    
    DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows storms developing either side
    of the VA/NC border, within an airmass that has become moderately
    unstable (2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE) due to heating of the
    seasonably moist boundary-layer.  Low-level flow across this region
    remains weak, but area VWPs indicate some enhancement to the
    mid-level west-southwest flow -- which is on the order of 30 to 40
    kt.  As such, a few stronger updrafts will likely emerge from time
    to time, accompanied by attendant risk for gusty/locally damaging
    winds.  Overall, degree of risk will likely remain tempered -- at
    least in part due to an overall lack of forcing, beneath weak
    short-wave ridging aloft ahead of the central Gulf Coast region
    upper disturbance.  As such, WW is not anticipated across this area
    this afternoon, before storms begin to diurnally weaken this
    evening.
    
    ..Goss/Guyer.. 06/18/2019
    
    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
    
    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...
    
    LAT...LON   37557574 37037536 36317698 36118020 35978183 36798119
                37667938 37557574 
    
    
    Read more
  • Tue, 18 Jun 2019 13:09:29 -0600: SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
    SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
    Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
    Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0207 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019
    
    Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
    
    ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF COLUMBIA BASIN...
    
    Confidence has increased in RH remaining low enough during the
    afternoon in portions of the Columbia Basin that a critical area has
    been introduced. Given the somewhat cooler temperatures and influx
    of marine air, critical conditions will likely be low-end with RH
    only slightly dipping below 20%. However, latest NWCC fuel guidance
    indicates low elevation fine fuels are cured in the Basin and with
    20-25 mph surface winds expected, an upgrade appears warranted.
    
    In central Montana, thunderstorm coverage has remained isolated so
    far today. However, with an upstream shortwave trough in northwest
    Montana, coverage appears likely to become more scattered through
    the afternoon. Precipitation trends will continue to be monitored.
    
    ..Wendt.. 06/18/2019
    
    .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019/
    
    ...Synopsis...
    A seasonably strong upper trough is expected to deepen across the
    Northwest on Wednesday, as a surface low moves southeastward across
    Montana and a cold front sweeps through the northern Rockies and
    High Plains. 
    
    ...Columbia Basin Vicinity...
    Another dry and breezy day is expected across the Columbia Basin
    vicinity on Wednesday. Wind speeds should be higher compared to
    D1/Tuesday, as stronger flow aloft mixes down within a cold
    advection regime. RH is the primary uncertainty regarding critical
    potential, with minimum RH values potentially remaining in the
    20-30% range due to cooler surface temperatures. The Washington
    portion of the elevated area appears to have a greater chance of
    seeing critically low RH, and an upgrade across this area is
    possible in subsequent outlooks. 
    
    ...Central Montana...
    Dry and breezy post-frontal conditions are expected across much of
    central MT Wednesday afternoon. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph and
    minimum RH values of 15-25% will result in elevated to locally
    critical meteorological conditions. However, some antecedent
    rainfall is possible over this area on Tuesday into Tuesday night,
    and there is uncertainty regarding fuel receptiveness even in the
    absence of any precipitation. Due to these concerns, no areas have
    been introduced, though an elevated delineation may become necessary
    for areas that see only limited rainfall prior to Wednesday
    afternoon.
    
    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
    
    
    Read more
  • Tue, 18 Jun 2019 12:26:03 -0600: SPC MD 1117 - SPC Forecast Products
    MD 1117 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS INTO THE TRANSPECOS/SOUTH PLAINS
    MD 1117 Image
    
    Mesoscale Discussion 1117
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0125 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019
    
    Areas affected...eastern New Mexico and far West Texas into the
    Transpecos/South Plains
    
    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 
    
    Valid 181825Z - 182100Z
    
    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
    
    SUMMARY...Isolated storms may develop over the next 1-2 hours, with
    more widespread development expected later.  While eventual WW
    issuance may be needed eastward across western and central Texas,
    need for a watch in the shorter term, westward into far West Texas
    and eastern New Mexico, remains uncertain.
    
    DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows some deeper
    cumulus increasing over the higher terrain of central/south-central
    New Mexico, and southward across portions of the Davis Mountains. 
    This convection is on the western fringe of the instability
    gradient, and is evolving in line with various CAM runs which show
    isolated storm initiation in the 19Z to 20Z time frame across this
    region.  
    
    Weak short-wave ridging -- and associated weak subsidence -- is
    expected to maintain a largely capped boundary layer, such that
    development should remain initially isolated.  With that said, steep
    lapse rates aloft/moderate CAPE combined with enough veering and
    increase of the flow with height to yield modest shear, would
    support severe potential with any sustained storm.  Still, current
    expectations are that any storms development over the next couple of
    hours within the discussion area should remain isolated enough so as
    to preclude the need for WW issuance.  We will continue to monitor
    cumulus/convective development across this region, for any signs
    that coverage could become greater in the short term than is
    currently anticipated.
    
    Late this afternoon into early evening, as convection progresses
    eastward across the South Plains/Transpecos region, increased
    development/upscale growth -- in conjunction with initial low-level
    jet development -- will result in more widespread potential for
    severe weather, and attendant need for WW issuance.
    
    ..Goss/Guyer.. 06/18/2019
    
    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
    
    ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
    
    LAT...LON   30410478 33360511 34500518 35170372 34780215 32090162
                30580095 29860165 29770267 28920322 29560444 30410478 
    
    
    Read more
  • Tue, 18 Jun 2019 12:10:12 -0600: SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 394 Status Reports - SPC Forecast Products
    WW 0394 Status Updates
    WW 0394 Status Image
    
    STATUS FOR WATCH 0394 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
    
    Read more
  • Tue, 18 Jun 2019 12:10:04 -0600: SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 394 - SPC Forecast Products
    WW 394 SEVERE TSTM DC DE MD NJ PA VA CW 181810Z - 190200Z
    WW 0394 Image
    
    URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
    Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 394
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    210 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019
    
    The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
    
    * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
      District Of Columbia
      Delaware
      Eastern Maryland
      New Jersey
      Southeast Pennsylvania
      Northern and eastern Virginia
      Coastal Waters
    
    * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 210 PM until
      1000 PM EDT.
    
    * Primary threats include...
      Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
      Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
      A tornado or two possible
    
    SUMMARY...At least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are
    expected to develop from southeast Pennsylvania into New Jersey,
    where potential will exist for a couple of supercells with hail/wind
    and potentially some tornado risk. Other storms will also increase
    this afternoon south-southwestward across the Delmarva and broader
    parts of northern/eastern Virginia to eastern Maryland, with
    damaging winds and some hail possible in these areas.
    
    The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
    statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles southeast of
    Lakehurst NJ to 55 miles west southwest of Washington DC. For a
    complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
    update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
    
    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
    
    REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
    favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
    Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
    weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
    warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
    tornadoes.
    
    &&
    
    AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
    1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
    few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
    26025.
    
    ...Guyer
    
    
    Read more
  • Tue, 18 Jun 2019 11:30:44 -0600: SPC Jun 18, 2019 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
    SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
    Day 2 Outlook Image
    Day 2 Convective Outlook  
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1225 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019
    
    Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
    
    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL
    TX TO THE OH VALLEY...
    
    ...SUMMARY...
    Organized severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday from parts of
    north-central Texas into the Tennessee Valley.
    
    ...TX to OH Valley...
    
    Central Rockies short-wave trough is forecast to turn east-southeast
    across the central High Plains during the day1 period. This feature
    should aid significant convection that may grow upscale into an MCS
    late Monday. Remnants of one or more MCS-type complexes will
    propagate downstream...perhaps into AR by the start of the day2
    period. This forecast is predicated on an organized MCV evolving
    from this complex. If so, strong boundary-layer heating is expected
    along leading edge of cloud canopy/precip shield, possibly from
    southern AR into western TN. Increased buoyancy ahead of the MCV
    should result in renewed thunderstorm development by early afternoon
    within an increasingly sheared regime ahead of the aforementioned
    short wave. Large hail/damaging winds can be expected with organized
    convection under this scenario.
    
    Upstream across the Arklatex into the DFW Metroplex, trailing wind
    shift should provide the low-level convergence for convective
    development by late afternoon. Forecast soundings across
    north-central TX exhibit extreme SBCAPE with more than adequate
    shear for supercells. As temperatures warm into the lower-mid 90s
    inhibition should weaken such that thunderstorms evolve. Subsequent
    movement would allow this activity to move southeast toward northern
    LA, perhaps back building through the Metroplex. Very large hail may
    accompany this activity due to the expected shear/lapse rates and
    storm mode.
    
    ...Northern WY to Black Hills...
    
    Strong mid-level jet will approach northern WY during the late
    afternoon. High-level diffluence should encourage sustained
    convection along the WY/MT border that should propagate toward the
    Black Hills during the evening hours. With LLJ expected to increase
    over western SD this activity may linger well into the overnight
    hours.
    
    ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
    Tornado:   5%     - Slight
    Wind:     15%     - Slight
    Hail:     15% SIG - Slight
    
    ..Darrow.. 06/18/2019
    
    
    Read more
  • Tue, 18 Jun 2019 11:01:25 -0600: SPC Jun 18, 2019 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
    SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
    Day 1 Outlook Image
    Day 1 Convective Outlook  
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1152 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019
    
    Valid 181630Z - 191200Z
    
    ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
    CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
    
    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
    MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
    
    ...SUMMARY...
    Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the
    central and southern Great Plains in multiple rounds this afternoon
    through tonight. Other severe thunderstorms are expected across the
    Mid-Atlantic region and parts of the Southeast.
    
    ...Kansas...
    An MCV will continue to drift generally eastward across
    western/central Kansas through the afternoon and evening. A trend of
    thinning/increasingly scattered cloud cover should occur through the
    afternoon, aided by a modest MCV-peripheral dry slot. Expectations
    are for more of a southeasterly low-level wind component to
    materialize across central Kansas by mid/late afternoon, while
    enhanced mid-level winds otherwise spread eastward across the
    southern half of Kansas. Thunderstorms should initially intensify
    across central/south-central Kansas by mid-afternoon, with moderate
    buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear/modest overall forcing
    likely being conducive for semi-discrete supercells, at least for a
    few hours duration. A few tornadoes will be possible aside from
    severe hail/wind as storms spread east-southeastward toward and
    across the I-35/I-135 corridor through late afternoon and
    early/mid-evening.
    
    ...Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle to west/southwest Texas...
    Timing of the peak/most-certain severe risk is a bit questionable
    across parts of this region, but the potential exists for a
    sub-regional corridor to be impacted by multiple rounds of severe
    thunderstorms. At the very least, a conditional severe/supercell
    risk will exist as early as mid/late afternoon across the Texas
    Panhandle/Low Rolling Plains and western Oklahoma within a very
    unstable environment. However, modest convergence and a tendency for
    mid-level warming casts some uncertainty. At the very least, storms
    are likely to move into/across the region later this evening with an
    appreciable damaging wind/hail risk via one or more well-organized
    clusters.
    
    Farther south, a couple supercells should form over the higher
    terrain of the TX Trans-Pecos with a primary risk of large hail.
    Minor mid-level height rises suggest robust MLCIN will hold east of
    the Pecos River, limiting the spatial extent of this threat. A
    separate area of thunderstorms may form near the intersection of the
    dryline and residual outflow boundary trailing from the central
    Texas MCS. A deeply mixed boundary layer should support a few
    supercells that might organize into a cluster this evening. Large
    hail and severe wind should be the primary threats.
    
    ...CO Front Range/south-central High Plains...
    Scattered thunderstorm development is likely over the Raton Mesa and
    other parts of Southeast Colorado by peak heating as a minor
    mid-level impulse in Utah crosses the southern Rockies. Amid 30-40
    kt 500-mb westerlies, this activity should spread east and impinge
    on richer boundary-layer moisture in the Texas Panhandle this
    evening. At least on an isolated basis, supercells capable of large
    hail and possibly some tornado/damaging wind risk can be expected as
    storms spread east/southeastward.
    
    ...Mid-Atlantic States/Delmarva...
    An area of organized severe potential is apparent across southeast 
    PA, NJ, northern MD, and DE ahead of an MCV/weak surface cyclone
    currently over western PA. Here, some enlargement to low-level
    hodographs in conjunction with moderate boundary-layer heating of
    low 70s dew points should support a risk for a few supercells
    capable of a tornado or two and damaging winds/some hail. Refer to
    Mesoscale Discussion 1115 for additional short-term details.
    
    ...Central Gulf Coast to Carolinas...
    A belt of 20-30 kt west-southwesterly flow will persist amid
    afternoon MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. This should again foster a
    threat for mainly locally damaging wind as numerous multicells occur
    through this afternoon.
    
    ...Montana/Northern High Plains...
    Isolated strong to severe semi-low-topped thunderstorms will be
    possible this afternoon into evening within a modestly
    moist/unstable environment ahead of an
    amplifying/southeastward-moving mid-level shortwave trough.
    Well-mixed boundary layers could yield severe-caliber wind gusts
    along with some localized/marginal hail potential.
    
    ..Guyer/Bentley.. 06/18/2019
    
    
    Read more
  • Tue, 18 Jun 2019 10:00:17 -0600: SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
    SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
    Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
    Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1057 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019
    
    Valid 181700Z - 191200Z
    
    No changes are needed to the ongoing forecast. Please see the
    previous discussion for further details.
    
    ..Wendt.. 06/18/2019
    
    .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019/
    
    ...Synopsis...
    A strong shortwave trough is forecast to begin impacting the Pacific
    Northwest today, while a broad upper trough will cover much of the
    central and eastern CONUS. A broad surface low is forecast to
    develop across western Canada, with a cold front expected to move
    eastward across the interior Northwest. 
    
    ...Columbia Basin Vicinity...
    Dry and breezy conditions are expected this afternoon into this
    evening. Sustained westerly winds of 15-20 mph (with higher gusts)
    combined with minimum RH values of 20-25% will result in elevated
    fire weather conditions, given the presence of at least somewhat
    receptive fuels. Locally critical conditions will be possible in
    terrain-favored locations where wind speeds will be somewhat
    stronger.
    
    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
    
    
    Read more

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The Author

Rich Fleetwood

Rich is the founder of SurvivalRing, now in it's 20th year, author of multimedia CDs and DVDs, loves the outdoors, his family, his geeky skill-set, and lives in rural Missouri, just a few miles from the Big Muddy. Always ready to help others, he shares what he learns on multiple blogs, social sites, and more. With a background in preparedness and survival skills, training with county, state, and national organizations, and skills in all areas of media and on air experience in live radio and television, Rich is always thinking about the "big picture", when it comes to helping individuals and families prepare for life's little surprises. Since 1997, he has provided guidance, authentic government survival history, and commentary on why we all need to get ready for that fateful day in the future, when we have to get our hands dirty and step in to save the day. He is an award winning videographer (2005 Telly Award), has received state and national scholarly recognition (2006 New Century Scholar and All USA Academic Team), and is a natural with computers, technology, gadgets, small furry mammals, and anything on wheels. Rich likes making friends, solving problems, and creating solutions to everyday issues. He doesn't mind mixing things up, when there is a teaching moment ready to happen. As a constitutional conservative, he's staying quite busy these days. The SurvivalRing Radio Show at www.survivalringradio.com will be coming back SOON!

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