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NOAA – Storm Prediction Center – Feed For tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks:
- Tue, 28 Jan 2020 05:56:50 -0700: SPC Jan 28, 2020 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2020 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms may impact portions of the southern Plains into the northwest Gulf coast vicinity today into tonight, and isolated lightning flashes will also be possible across the Pacific Northwest. ...Synopsis... A progressive flow regime persists today, as one midlevel shortwave trough digs southeastward from the Pacific Northwest this morning to the Great Basin overnight, and a downstream trough translates eastward from the southern Plains to the lower MS Valley. A few lightning flashes will be possible this morning along the WA/OR coasts as the primary baroclinic zone and midlevel trough move inland. Some weak convection will also be possible east of the Cascades later today, where marginal buoyancy could support isolated lightning flashes from eastern OR into western ID. The threat for scattered thunderstorms will persist today in the warm conveyor belt across TX/OK. Buoyancy will remain largely elevated inland where the stronger forcing for ascent will be, with the richer low-level moisture and near-surface buoyancy confined to along or just off the TX/LA coasts. A very narrow corridor of weak surface-based CAPE will be possible this afternoon near the surface cyclone across north TX, beneath the midlevel trough. However, severe storms are not expected due to weak vertical shear in this same corridor, and only marginal buoyancy. ..Thompson/Leitman.. 01/28/2020
Read more - Tue, 28 Jan 2020 05:56:24 -0700: SPC - No watches are valid as of Tue Jan 28 12:57:01 UTC 2020 - SPC Forecast Products
No watches are valid as of Tue Jan 28 12:57:01 UTC 2020. - Tue, 28 Jan 2020 05:56:16 -0700: SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Tue Jan 28 12:57:01 UTC 2020 - SPC Forecast Products
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Jan 28 12:57:01 UTC 2020. - Tue, 28 Jan 2020 01:56:56 -0700: SPC Jan 28, 2020 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2020 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Friday (Day 4) Model consensus is that a southern-stream shortwave trough will deamplify as it phases with a northern-stream trough and continues east northeast through the Southeastern States. A warm front will move north into southern FL accompanied by weak instability, but the front will remain south of the corridor of stronger vertical shear accompanying the deamplifying shortwave trough. While some risk for severe storms could evolve from this potential scenario as storms develop in vicinity of the warm front, current indications are that instability will probably remain too marginal for a more substantial threat. Saturday-Sunday (days 5-6) The boundary across FL will transition to a cold front as cyclogenesis commences off the Atlantic seaboard in association with the progressive southern-stream shortwave trough. The front will move off the FL Peninsula during the day, and while a few thunderstorms may develop along this boundary, instability is expected to remain too weak for a substantial severe threat. Later Saturday through Sunday the Gulf frontal intrusion will result in stable conditions inland. By days 7-8 (Monday-Tuesday) richer Gulf moisture will begin returning through east TX and the lower MS Valley ahead of the next shortwave trough. While a severe threat might evolve from east TX into the Southeast States during this period, too much uncertainty exists regarding timing and amplitude of these waves to introduce a categorical severe risk area at this time.
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