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NOAA – Storm Prediction Center – Feed For tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks:
- Fri, 10 Jul 2020 03:45:06 -0600: SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 351 Status Reports - SPC Forecast Products
WW 0351 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0351 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more - Fri, 10 Jul 2020 03:45:02 -0600: SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 351 - SPC Forecast Products
WW 351 SEVERE TSTM KS 100945Z - 101500ZURGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 351 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 445 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of South central Kansas * Effective this Friday morning from 445 AM until 1000 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Clusters of elevated thunderstorms will continue to develop across central and south central Kansas this morning. The stronger, more discrete storms could develop supercell structures with an attendant threat for isolated large hail. A few damaging gusts will also be possible as a result of storm mergers and cold pool formation. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles northwest of Medicine Lodge KS to 35 miles east of Wichita KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 31025. ...Thompson
Read more - Fri, 10 Jul 2020 03:42:03 -0600: SPC MD 1166 - SPC Forecast Products
MD 1166 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1166 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0441 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020 Areas affected...South-central and Southeast Kansas...Far Northern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon Valid 100941Z - 101015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A threat for isolated large hail and a few severe wind gusts will be possible over the next few hours across south-central Kansas. A watch is currently being issued across south-central and southeast Kansas. DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows scattered thunderstorms across parts of central Kansas. The storms are located ahead of a subtle shortwave trough evident on water vapor imagery. The storms are also located along a gradient of moderate instability extending from northwest Kansas southeastward into northern Oklahoma. The RAP is estimating that MUCAPE values across central Kansas are in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. This will fuel the storms as they move southeastward across southeastern Kansas over the next few hours. Forecast soundings at Wichita have 50 kt of cloud-layer shear and 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 8.0 C/km. The environment should be adequate for large hail. Although the storms should remain mostly elevated, a few severe wind gusts can not be ruled out. ..Broyles/Thompson.. 07/10/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 36999591 36589650 36589791 36879860 37379918 38069944 38469976 38899994 39159971 39189917 39159841 38979744 38449667 37779592 36999591Read more - Fri, 10 Jul 2020 02:50:29 -0600: SPC Jul 10, 2020 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... On D4/Monday, a seasonably strong shortwave trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Some uncertainty remains regarding the quality of moisture return into the northern Plains by Monday afternoon, but increasingly favorable wind profiles combined with at least moderate instability will support an organized severe thunderstorm threat across some portion of the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley. Probabilities will likely need to be included in subsequent outlooks when details regarding the timing of the upper wave and magnitude of moisture return come into better focus. For D5/Tuesday and beyond, some severe threat will likely persist across some portion of the central/northern Plains into the upper Midwest, as a belt of stronger mid/upper-level flow to the north of a ridge over the southern Plains/Southeast interacts with a persistent axis of moderate-to-strong instability. Predictability remains too low to delineate any specific areas at this time.
Read more - Fri, 10 Jul 2020 01:34:26 -0600: SPC Jul 10, 2020 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday across portions of the Southeast into the Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... Some dampening of the ridge across the Southwest into the southern Plains is expected on Sunday, as an upper trough deepens over the northwest/northern Rockies. Meanwhile, a broad upper trough is forecast to remain in place over the East. ...Lower MS Valley into the TN/OH Valleys and Southeast... A broad region of modest midlevel northwesterly flow will be in place from portions of the MS Valley into the Southeast on Sunday. Evolution of convection on D2/Saturday (which remains quite uncertain) will influence the severe threat across this region later in the day. If sufficient destabilization can occur in the wake of any early convection, wind profiles will support some risk of organized convection, with a primary risk of locally damaging wind and perhaps some hail. Further north into portions of the TN/OH Valleys, scattered thunderstorms are expected in closer proximity to the primary midlevel trough axis. The magnitude of instability with northward extent remains uncertain, but effective shear will likely support some threat for organized convection during the afternoon, with a corresponding risk of locally damaging wind and marginal hail. ...Central/northern High Plains... Modest low-level moisture return into the central/northern High Plains may support at least isolated thunderstorm development Sunday afternoon. Wind profiles would conditionally support some organized convection, given sufficient instability. Uncertainty regarding the coverage of convection and magnitude of instability precludes the introduction of probabilities at this time. ...Northern New England... The glancing influence of a departing shortwave trough may focus convection across portions of northern New England on Sunday. There is considerable model spread regarding the magnitude of instability across this region, but wind profiles would likely support some organized severe threat given sufficient buoyancy. Uncertainty remains too large at this forecast range to include probabilities with this forecast. ..Dean.. 07/10/2020
Read more - Fri, 10 Jul 2020 00:39:19 -0600: SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Strong ridging will continue over much of the southwestern US while a shortwave trough will approach the western US Coast late in the Day 2/Saturday forecast period. Very warm temperatures are expected across much of the Southwest with seasonally low RH, but relatively weak winds. Across the eastern US, an upper low over Canada should remain in place with abundant low-level moisture and modest flow aloft limiting fire weather potential. ...Lee of the Cascades... The approaching upper-level trough is expected to remain offshore through much of the day Saturday, before moving onshore later in the period. Relatively dry surface conditions are expected, with RH approaching 30% given westerly downslope flow and warm surface temperatures. While flow aloft should increase some through the day, the lack of overlap between peak heating, the deepest boundary-layer mixing, and minimum surface RH suggests that momentum transfer will be modest. This should serve to limit fire weather potential to mainly elevated conditions. This is also in agreement with the current state of fuels, which are expected to remain mostly confined to lower elevations and densities, supporting only modest potential for large fire growth. ...Southern Great Basin... Very warm and dry surface conditions are expected underneath the ridge across the Southwest. Stronger mid-level flow associated with a weak mid-level shortwave trough on the periphery of the ridge may support locally elevated fire weather conditions across southern/ central Nevada into far western Utah. A dry thunderstorm or two may also develop if sufficient forcing for ascent can be realized from the passing shortwave. However, considerable uncertainty in timing of the breakdown of the upper-level ridge exists. Should the ridge breakdown sooner than current guidance suggests, an elevated area and possibly a dry thunder area could be needed. ..Lyons.. 07/10/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more - Fri, 10 Jul 2020 00:30:47 -0600: SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A strong ridge of high pressure is forecast to continue developing over the Southwest and Four Corners regions today, as a shortwave trough over the central Rockies will eject eastward onto the High Plains. At the surface, to the west of a sharpening lee trough, dry and windy conditions are likely to develop along of the Front Range into eastern/central Wyoming. At the same time, a cold front will sag south through portions of western South Dakota with a cooler and more moist boundary layer expected to the north of the front. Across the eastern US, A second shortwave trough and the upper-level influence of Tropical Storm Fay will dominate the forecast. Abundant precipitation and relatively weak flow will likely limit the potential for widespread fire weather conditions. ...Southern and central Wyoming onto the High Plains... Increasing mid-level flow is expected to develop ahead of the ejecting shortwave trough over the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains this afternoon and evening. Surface pressure falls are forecast to increase along a develop lee trough across the Front Range of eastern Wyoming. Here, westerly downslope flow along with strong heating of the boundary layer will likely support single digit RH across much of eastern Wyoming and into portions of southwestern South Dakota and the Nebraska Panhandle. Model forecast soundings show a deeply mixed boundary layer, to around 700 mb, intersecting with the increasing flow aloft. Gusty surface winds of 30-35 mph appear likely, aided by momentum transfer and the strengthening pressure gradient associated with the lee trough. The combination of very dry surface conditions, gusty winds, and receptive fuels will likely support critical fire weather conditions across the area. The potential for elevated conditions exists further southwest into the Great Basin region underneath the ridge. However, this area should be displaced from stronger flow aloft and the resulting low-level mass response. This suggests that only locally elevated conditions will be likely, and no additional areas were added. ..Lyons.. 07/10/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more - Fri, 10 Jul 2020 00:16:05 -0600: SPC Jul 10, 2020 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS...NORTHEAST OK...SOUTHWEST MO...NORTHWEST AR... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central and southern Plains and Ozark Plateau on Saturday. A few strong storms are also possible over the coastal Mid-Atlantic and New England. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge is forecast to remain in place from the Southwest into the Southern Plains on Saturday, while an upper trough remains over much of the East. T.C. Fay is expected to be inland over New England at the start of the period Saturday morning and its remnant circulation is forecast to move quickly north-northeastward into Canada during the day (refer to NHC forecasts for more information). Further west, a compact shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Ohio Valley into New England by Sunday morning, with additional lower-amplitude shortwave troughs likely to be embedded within broad northwesterly mid/upper-level flow from the northern Plains into the MS Valley. ...Southern/central Plains into the Ozark Plateau... Elevated convection, possibly in the form of a southeastward-propagating MCS, will likely be ongoing at the start of the period somewhere from the mid-MO Valley into the Ozark Plateau. Any such convection would pose a threat for damaging wind and perhaps some hail, given the presence of ample MUCAPE and sufficient effective shear. The severe threat into the afternoon/evening will be strongly influenced by how any morning convection and related outflow boundaries evolve during the day. These details remain highly uncertain, but a conditionally favorable environment characterized by strong instability and moderate effective shear will likely evolve by late afternoon somewhere in the vicinity of any remnant boundary. The greatest relative risk currently appears to be across eastern KS/northeast OK/southwest MO/northwest AR, where multiple scenarios, including an early-day MCS and/or redevelopment along a remnant boundary during the afternoon/evening, will be possible. Accordingly, a Slight Risk has been introduced for this region. ...Northern Mid Atlantic into New England... While T.C. Fay is forecast to move quickly into Canada sometime Saturday morning, rich low-level moisture and modestly enhanced low/mid-level flow will likely remain in its wake from the northern Mid Atlantic into portions of New England, in advance of the shortwave trough moving eastward from the OH Valley. Renewed convective development is expected by late morning/early afternoon, with the strongest storms capable of localized wind damage. ...Southern Mid Atlantic into the Coastal Carolinas... Scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon/evening from southern portions of the Mid Atlantic into coastal regions of NC/SC. Midlevel flow of 20-30 kt may support weakly organized updrafts, and locally damaging wind may be possible with the strongest storms, though confidence remains too low at this time to introduce probabilities. ..Dean.. 07/10/2020
Read more - Fri, 10 Jul 2020 00:08:47 -0600: SPC Jul 10, 2020 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM COASTAL NEW JERSEY INTO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of severe storms are expected over parts of the northern and central Plains this afternoon into tonight. Large to very large hail and damaging wind are likely, and a few tornadoes are possible. ...Northern through central Plains regions... The northern and central Plains will remain within belt of modest westerlies today. A low-amplitude shortwave trough currently moving through the Pacific Northwest will reach the northern High Plains by late afternoon and continue through the Dakotas this evening accompanied by a cold front. A minor impulse will precede this feature and move through SD during the morning. Warm front will become established and extend from a weak surface low over southwest SD southeastward through eastern NE and KS. Dryline will extend southward through western NE into eastern CO. A cold front will approach the western Dakotas by late afternoon. Easterly low-level winds will persist north of the warm front and in advance of the cold front across the Dakotas into northeast WY and eastern MT maintaining a corridor of surface dewpoints from the upper 50s to low 60s F beneath steep lapse rates. The atmosphere in this region will likely become moderately to strongly unstable as the boundary layer warms with 2000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE likely by mid afternoon. Storms are expected to develop along the cold front as it interacts with the destabilizing boundary layer across eastern MT and northeast WY. Other storms will develop farther south near triple point over southwest SD into northwest NE. Vertical wind profiles with veering in the lowest 2 km and 50+ kt effective bulk shear will support supercells capable of large to very large hail and damaging wind. A few tornadoes are possible, especially with storms developing near warm front across SD into northern NE. Some of the storms may eventually grow upscale into lines and clusters and spread east and southeast posing a risk for more widespread wind damage. Though some uncertainty remains, potential will exist for a longer lived severe MCS to organize across SD or NE and move southeast along instability gradient into the overnight, supported by a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet. Have expanded the SLGT risk southward for the possibility of this scenario and farther southward expansion through eastern KS and western MO might be necessary if more confidence is gained in later outlooks. ...Northeast and southern New England coastal areas... Tropical storm Fay is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to continue moving northward, and the center should be located near the central NJ coast by early this evening. Shear in the 0-1 km layer will increase from coastal NJ through coastal southern New England later today where near-surface dewpoints will reach the low 70s F. Best tornado threat with low-topped supercells will evolve during the afternoon into the early evening if some surface heating can occur between outer rainbands. ..Dial/Lyons.. 07/10/2020
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