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NOAA – Storm Prediction Center – Feed For tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks:
- Tue, 26 Jan 2021 01:26:03 -0700: SPC Tornado Watch 4 Status Reports - SPC Forecast Products
WW 0004 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 4 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE MEI TO 20 SSW TCL TO 55 NNE ATL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0036 ..GLEASON..01/26/21 ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 4 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC007-015-021-027-029-037-065-091-105-111-117-121-260940- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIBB CALHOUN CHILTON CLAY CLEBURNE COOSA HALE MARENGO PERRY RANDOLPH SHELBY TALLADEGA GAC045-057-067-097-143-223-233-260940- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARROLL CHEROKEE COBB DOUGLAS HARALSON PAULDING POLK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIALRead more
- Tue, 26 Jan 2021 01:26:02 -0700: SPC Tornado Watch 4 - SPC Forecast Products
WW 4 TORNADO AL GA 260640Z - 261200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 4 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CST Tue Jan 26 2021 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and eastern Alabama Northwestern Georgia * Effective this Tuesday morning from 1240 AM until 600 AM CST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A band of strong-severe thunderstorms with embedded supercells will shift eastward over the watch area, offering tornado and damaging-wind potential for at least a few more hours. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 30 statute miles either side of a line from 25 miles south of Tuscaloosa AL to 70 miles east northeast of Anniston AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 3... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...EdwardsRead more
- Tue, 26 Jan 2021 00:59:03 -0700: SPC MD 36 - SPC Forecast Products
MD 0036 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 4... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AL AND WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHWESTERN GA
Mesoscale Discussion 0036 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CST Tue Jan 26 2021 Areas affected...Portions of central AL and west-central/northwestern GA Concerning...Tornado Watch 4... Valid 260758Z - 260930Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 4 continues. SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may persist for a couple more hours early this morning before gradually diminishing. A couple tornadoes and occasional strong/gusty winds should be the main threats. DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery shows a broken line of storms extending northeast to southwest across northwestern GA and central AL. The low-level flow across this region should have a tendency to gradually veer to a more southwesterly direction and slowly weaken as the strongest portion of a low-level jet advances into the Carolinas over the next few hours. Even so, there should still be enough veering/strengthening of the wind field in low levels (reference 06Z BMX sounding) to support updraft rotation. A couple tornadoes will remain possible in the short term with storms advancing northeastward within the broken line. Isolated strong/gusty winds producing occasional damage may also occur with any cell that can acquire a small bowing structure. Current expectations are for this isolated severe threat to gradually diminish later this morning as the low-level flow becomes increasingly parallel to the ongoing convection, which should reduce 0-1 km SRH. The marginal thermodynamic environment across west-central into northern GA should also limit the eastward extent of any meaningful severe risk. ..Gleason.. 01/26/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX... LAT...LON 32398833 32668824 33148734 33908569 34248512 34368415 34158410 33778453 33428499 32818609 32388745 32338795 32398833Read more
- Tue, 26 Jan 2021 00:50:58 -0700: SPC Jan 26, 2021 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Tue Jan 26 2021 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. Thursday. ...Discussion... The upper pattern over the U.S. will continue to feature troughs near both the East and West Coasts, and a broad area of anticyclonic flow covering central portions of the country. Some evolution with respect to the eastern trough is expected, as one shorter-wavelength feature shifts into the western Atlantic, and is replaced by a low advancing southeastward out of Canada and into the Northeast. Meanwhile, the more steady-state western trough will make very slow eastward progress toward the West Coast. At the surface, high pressure will prevail east of the Rockies, with ridging/continental air spreading southward across nearly the entire Gulf of Mexico. In the West, a weak Pacific front will move gradually onshore, in advance of the aforementioned upper system. Showers are expected over the West Coast area through much of the period, as the trough aloft slowly advances. Although an occasional/isolated lightning flash may occur inland within the broader area of weak/low-topped convection, coverage is currently expected to remain too sparse to warrant inclusion of a 10% thunder area. ..Goss.. 01/26/2021Read more
- Tue, 26 Jan 2021 00:39:26 -0700: SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CST Tue Jan 26 2021 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough is forecast to move across the southeastern US as a strong ridge builds across the west-central portions of the CONUS through the day2/Wed forecast period. At the surface, strong high pressure will dominate the lower 48, keeping winds relatively light and temperatures cool. Fire weather conditions are expected to remain tranquil. ...South Texas... A few hours of locally elevated fire weather conditions may occur through the day associated with the relatively dry airmass in place across the southern Plains and central Texas. While winds and humidity are not expected to overly support fire weather conditions, fuels across the area remain receptive to fire spread given little recent precipitation. ..Lyons.. 01/26/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more
- Tue, 26 Jan 2021 00:37:26 -0700: SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CST Tue Jan 26 2021 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough over the central and southern US will continue to amplify as the overall upper-air pattern favors troughing over the West Coast. At the surface, high pressure from Canada will continue to build over the northern CONUS, keeping temperatures cool. The cool temperatures and recent precipitation should mitigate much of the fire weather threat. ...Texas Trans Pecos... Locally elevated fire weather conditions will be possible through the afternoon across portions of the Texas Big Bend as downslope winds intensify to 20-30 mph. The primary limiting factor for more widespread fire weather conditions will be the presence of clouds impeding deeper mixing and limiting minimum humidity values. With the overlap between the stronger winds and lower humidity likely to remain relatively isolated, the threat is expected to stay primarily local in nature. ..Lyons.. 01/26/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more
- Mon, 25 Jan 2021 23:49:48 -0700: SPC Jan 26, 2021 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CST Tue Jan 26 2021 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe weather is expected across the U.S. on Wednesday. ...Discussion... While an upper trough evolves near/just off the West Coast, a second system -- initially crossing the central and southern Plains -- will move steadily eastward. This trough is forecast to reach the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf Coast region during the afternoon, and then will continue east overnight clearing the East Coast by the end of the period. In its wake, a broadening zone of anticyclonic flow aloft will expand to include much of the country by the end of the period. At the surface, high pressure is forecast across much of the country. One exception will be over the Southeast, where a northeast-to-southwest baroclinic zone will lie at the start of the period, sagging slowly southward into/across Florida as a weak frontal wave crosses Georgia and then moves offshore during the afternoon. Showers and embedded thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period over portions of the Southeast -- particularly in the vicinity of the aforementioned front. While a stronger storm or two may occur over the southern Alabama/Florida Panhandle/southwestern Georgia vicinity, mainly early in the period, any severe risk appears likely at this time to remain minimal, at best. ..Goss.. 01/26/2021Read more
- Mon, 25 Jan 2021 23:24:03 -0700: SPC Tornado Watch 3 Status Reports - SPC Forecast Products
WW 0003 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 3 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE MEI TO 20 N BHM TO 10 SW RMG. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0035 ..GLEASON..01/26/21 ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 3 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC007-009-015-019-029-055-063-065-073-115-117-119-121-125- 260740- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIBB BLOUNT CALHOUN CHEROKEE CLEBURNE ETOWAH GREENE HALE JEFFERSON ST. CLAIR SHELBY SUMTER TALLADEGA TUSCALOOSA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.Read more
- Mon, 25 Jan 2021 22:42:59 -0700: SPC Jan 26, 2021 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Mon Jan 25 2021 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with strong wind gusts will be possible this afternoon into early evening across parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast... Southwest mid-level flow will be in place today across the Southeast. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the central Gulf Coast States. The front is forecast to be located from southern Alabama into central Georgia by mid afternoon. Surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will contribute to weak destabilization by afternoon, with SBCAPE reaching the 500 to 750 J/kg range just ahead of the front. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front during the mid to late afternoon as instability maximizes. The instability combined with 45 to 55 kt of deep-layer shear should support a marginal wind damage threat from the Florida Panhandle northeastward across southwestern Georgia. Although a few strong wind gusts will be possible, low-level lapse rates are not forecast to be that steep. For this reason, any wind damage threat should remain localized. The potential for marginally severe wind gusts may persist into the early evening as thunderstorms linger in areas that have the strongest instability. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 01/26/2021Read more
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