NOAA SPC – Forecasts

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NOAA – Storm Prediction Center – Feed For tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks:

  • Sun, 05 Apr 2020 11:45:05 -0600: SPC - No watches are valid as of Sun Apr 5 17:46:01 UTC 2020 - SPC Forecast Products
    No watches are valid as of Sun Apr 5 17:46:01 UTC 2020.
  • Sun, 05 Apr 2020 11:45:04 -0600: SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Sun Apr 5 17:46:01 UTC 2020 - SPC Forecast Products
    No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Apr 5 17:46:01 UTC 2020.
  • Sun, 05 Apr 2020 11:04:52 -0600: SPC Apr 5, 2020 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
    SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
    Day 2 Outlook Image
    Day 2 Convective Outlook  
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1201 PM CDT Sun Apr 05 2020
    
    Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
    
    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
    
    ...SUMMARY...
    Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the Lower 48
    states on Monday.
    
    ...DISCUSSION...
    An upper low just off the California coast will continue drifting
    slowly southward Monday, while upstream ridging prevails over the
    remainder of the CONUS.  However, the ridging/anticyclonic flow will
    be flattened over the north-central U.S. later in the period, as a
    short-wave trough shifts steadily eastward across the Canadian
    Rockies, and then into the Prairie Provinces and adjacent northern
    Plains overnight.
    
    At the surface, a cold front will move slowly east across southern
    California and southern Nevada into southern Utah and western
    Arizona.  Meanwhile, a cold front will also shift across the
    northern Rockies, and then into the northern and central Plains
    overnight, in conjunction with the advance of the aforementioned
    upper short-wave trough.  Finally, a trailing/remnant front will
    linger across the Carolinas vicinity, and northwestward into the
    Midwest, through the period.
    
    Showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected across parts of the
    West Monday, from portions of California across the Great Basin and
    into the northern Intermountain region.  Showers and perhaps a
    thunderstorm or two may also occur in an area from Texas northeast
    across Arkansas.  Finally, convection is expected in a
    northwest-to-southeast zone from the upper Midwest to the Carolinas,
    along the aforementioned/remnant front.  In the eastern North
    Carolina vicinity, a few storms may develop during the afternoon and
    spread southeastward within the background northwesterly flow aloft,
    and gusty winds would be possible with a couple of the stronger
    updrafts.  However, severe risk appears too low to warrant inclusion
    of any severe-weather probabilities at this time.
    
    ..Goss.. 04/05/2020
    
    
    Read more
  • Sun, 05 Apr 2020 11:00:29 -0600: SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
    SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
    Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
    Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1159 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2020
    
    Valid 051700Z - 061200Z
    
    ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
    COLORADO...NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...FAR NORTHWEST TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
    PANHANDLES...
    
    Based on current surface observations along with this morning's
    ensemble guidance, the critical area has been nudged slightly
    eastward. The surface trough/dryline appears to be setting up a
    little eastward of previous guidance. There may be locally critical
    conditions in the vicinity of the highlighted area, but duration of
    those conditions is too uncertain to expand the critical area.
    Please see the previous discussion for greater detail.
    
    ..Wendt.. 04/05/2020
    
    .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0210 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2020/
    
    ...Synopsis...
    An upper ridge will amplify across the central CONUS as a mid-level
    trough deepens across the western U.S. Surface lee troughing will
    also intensify across the central High Plains, promoting dry
    westerly winds across portions of the southern High Plains,
    prompting concern of wildfire-spread potential.
    
    ...Southern High Plains...
    15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds, coinciding
    with 15-20% RH, are expected to be common across much of central and
    eastern New Mexico into southeast Colorado, and far western portions
    of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles by afternoon, warranting the
    continuation of an elevated area. 15-25 mph winds/10-20% RH are
    still expected to overlap for at least a few hours across parts of
    extreme northeast New Mexico into southeast Colorado, with a
    critical delineation kept to highlight this scenario.
    
    ...Parts of the Southeast...
    By afternoon peak heating, boundary-layer mixing may promote RH
    dropping to 40% in multiple locales, with perhaps localized patches
    of 30-35% RH. The lack of a stronger wind field, and modest
    accumulated rainfall within the past week, will limit more robust
    wildfire-spread potential, though localized fire starts will be
    possible.
    
    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
    
    
    Read more
  • Sun, 05 Apr 2020 10:34:20 -0600: SPC Apr 5, 2020 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
    SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
    Day 1 Outlook Image
    Day 1 Convective Outlook  
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1130 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2020
    
    Valid 051630Z - 061200Z
    
    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
    
    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe thunderstorms are unlikely across the United States today and
    tonight.
    
    ...Synopsis...
    A modestly amplified large-scale pattern will exist over the CONUS
    downstream of a southward-digging closed upper low along the coast
    of California. Thunderstorms will be possible today across southern
    Florida, the central Appalachians vicinity, as well as portions of
    the western States, but severe storms are unlikely.
    
    ...Southern/eastern Idaho to western Wyoming...
    Thunderstorms will be possible across the region this afternoon,
    influenced by cloud breaks/seasonal warmth and the exit region of an
    upper jet associated with the West Coast upper trough. Adequate
    heating and weak buoyancy this afternoon, in the presence of
    moderately strong wind profiles, could even support a stronger storm
    or two with gusty winds. However, the overall severe potential
    currently appears low given limited moisture/buoyancy overall.
    
    ..Guyer.. 04/05/2020
    
    
    Read more

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Updated: March 6, 2011 — 3:22 am

The Author

Rich Fleetwood

Rich is the founder of SurvivalRing, now in it's 20th year, author of multimedia CDs and DVDs, loves the outdoors, his family, his geeky skill-set, and lives in rural Missouri, just a few miles from the Big Muddy. Always ready to help others, he shares what he learns on multiple blogs, social sites, and more. With a background in preparedness and survival skills, training with county, state, and national organizations, and skills in all areas of media and on air experience in live radio and television, Rich is always thinking about the "big picture", when it comes to helping individuals and families prepare for life's little surprises.

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