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NOAA – Storm Prediction Center – Feed For tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks:
- Sun, 05 Apr 2020 11:45:05 -0600: SPC - No watches are valid as of Sun Apr 5 17:46:01 UTC 2020 - SPC Forecast Products
No watches are valid as of Sun Apr 5 17:46:01 UTC 2020. - Sun, 05 Apr 2020 11:45:04 -0600: SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Sun Apr 5 17:46:01 UTC 2020 - SPC Forecast Products
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Apr 5 17:46:01 UTC 2020. - Sun, 05 Apr 2020 11:04:52 -0600: SPC Apr 5, 2020 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Sun Apr 05 2020 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the Lower 48 states on Monday. ...DISCUSSION... An upper low just off the California coast will continue drifting slowly southward Monday, while upstream ridging prevails over the remainder of the CONUS. However, the ridging/anticyclonic flow will be flattened over the north-central U.S. later in the period, as a short-wave trough shifts steadily eastward across the Canadian Rockies, and then into the Prairie Provinces and adjacent northern Plains overnight. At the surface, a cold front will move slowly east across southern California and southern Nevada into southern Utah and western Arizona. Meanwhile, a cold front will also shift across the northern Rockies, and then into the northern and central Plains overnight, in conjunction with the advance of the aforementioned upper short-wave trough. Finally, a trailing/remnant front will linger across the Carolinas vicinity, and northwestward into the Midwest, through the period. Showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected across parts of the West Monday, from portions of California across the Great Basin and into the northern Intermountain region. Showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two may also occur in an area from Texas northeast across Arkansas. Finally, convection is expected in a northwest-to-southeast zone from the upper Midwest to the Carolinas, along the aforementioned/remnant front. In the eastern North Carolina vicinity, a few storms may develop during the afternoon and spread southeastward within the background northwesterly flow aloft, and gusty winds would be possible with a couple of the stronger updrafts. However, severe risk appears too low to warrant inclusion of any severe-weather probabilities at this time. ..Goss.. 04/05/2020
Read more - Sun, 05 Apr 2020 11:00:29 -0600: SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2020 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO...NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...FAR NORTHWEST TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES... Based on current surface observations along with this morning's ensemble guidance, the critical area has been nudged slightly eastward. The surface trough/dryline appears to be setting up a little eastward of previous guidance. There may be locally critical conditions in the vicinity of the highlighted area, but duration of those conditions is too uncertain to expand the critical area. Please see the previous discussion for greater detail. ..Wendt.. 04/05/2020 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0210 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2020/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will amplify across the central CONUS as a mid-level trough deepens across the western U.S. Surface lee troughing will also intensify across the central High Plains, promoting dry westerly winds across portions of the southern High Plains, prompting concern of wildfire-spread potential. ...Southern High Plains... 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds, coinciding with 15-20% RH, are expected to be common across much of central and eastern New Mexico into southeast Colorado, and far western portions of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles by afternoon, warranting the continuation of an elevated area. 15-25 mph winds/10-20% RH are still expected to overlap for at least a few hours across parts of extreme northeast New Mexico into southeast Colorado, with a critical delineation kept to highlight this scenario. ...Parts of the Southeast... By afternoon peak heating, boundary-layer mixing may promote RH dropping to 40% in multiple locales, with perhaps localized patches of 30-35% RH. The lack of a stronger wind field, and modest accumulated rainfall within the past week, will limit more robust wildfire-spread potential, though localized fire starts will be possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more - Sun, 05 Apr 2020 10:34:20 -0600: SPC Apr 5, 2020 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2020 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely across the United States today and tonight. ...Synopsis... A modestly amplified large-scale pattern will exist over the CONUS downstream of a southward-digging closed upper low along the coast of California. Thunderstorms will be possible today across southern Florida, the central Appalachians vicinity, as well as portions of the western States, but severe storms are unlikely. ...Southern/eastern Idaho to western Wyoming... Thunderstorms will be possible across the region this afternoon, influenced by cloud breaks/seasonal warmth and the exit region of an upper jet associated with the West Coast upper trough. Adequate heating and weak buoyancy this afternoon, in the presence of moderately strong wind profiles, could even support a stronger storm or two with gusty winds. However, the overall severe potential currently appears low given limited moisture/buoyancy overall. ..Guyer.. 04/05/2020
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