NOAA SPC – Forecasts

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NOAA – Storm Prediction Center – Feed For tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks:

  • Fri, 10 Jul 2020 03:45:06 -0600: SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 351 Status Reports - SPC Forecast Products
    WW 0351 Status Updates
    WW 0351 Status Image
    
    STATUS FOR WATCH 0351 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
    
    Read more
  • Fri, 10 Jul 2020 03:45:02 -0600: SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 351 - SPC Forecast Products
    WW 351 SEVERE TSTM KS 100945Z - 101500Z
    WW 0351 Image
    
    URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
    Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 351
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    445 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020
    
    The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
    
    * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
      South central Kansas
    
    * Effective this Friday morning from 445 AM until 1000 AM CDT.
    
    * Primary threats include...
      Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
      Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
    
    SUMMARY...Clusters of elevated thunderstorms will continue to
    develop across central and south central Kansas this morning.  The
    stronger, more discrete storms could develop supercell structures
    with an attendant threat for isolated large hail.  A few damaging
    gusts will also be possible as a result of storm mergers and cold
    pool formation.
    
    The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
    statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles northwest of
    Medicine Lodge KS to 35 miles east of Wichita KS. For a complete
    depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
    (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
    
    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
    
    REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
    favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
    Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
    weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
    warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
    tornadoes.
    
    &&
    
    AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
    1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
    few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
    31025.
    
    ...Thompson
    
    
    Read more
  • Fri, 10 Jul 2020 03:42:03 -0600: SPC MD 1166 - SPC Forecast Products
    MD 1166 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
    MD 1166 Image
    
    Mesoscale Discussion 1166
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0441 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020
    
    Areas affected...South-central and Southeast Kansas...Far Northern
    Oklahoma
    
    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon 
    
    Valid 100941Z - 101015Z
    
    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
    
    SUMMARY...A threat for isolated large hail and a few severe wind
    gusts will be possible over the next few hours across south-central
    Kansas. A watch is currently being issued across south-central and
    southeast Kansas.
    
    DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows scattered
    thunderstorms across parts of central Kansas. The storms are located
    ahead of a subtle shortwave trough evident on water vapor imagery.
    The storms are also located along a gradient of moderate instability
    extending from northwest Kansas southeastward into northern
    Oklahoma. The RAP is estimating that MUCAPE values across central
    Kansas are in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. This will fuel the storms
    as they move southeastward across southeastern Kansas over the next
    few hours. Forecast soundings at Wichita have 50 kt of cloud-layer
    shear and 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 8.0 C/km. The
    environment should be adequate for large hail. Although the storms
    should remain mostly elevated, a few severe wind gusts can not be
    ruled out.
    
    ..Broyles/Thompson.. 07/10/2020
    
    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
    
    ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...
    
    LAT...LON   36999591 36589650 36589791 36879860 37379918 38069944
                38469976 38899994 39159971 39189917 39159841 38979744
                38449667 37779592 36999591 
    
    
    Read more
  • Fri, 10 Jul 2020 02:50:29 -0600: SPC Jul 10, 2020 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
    Day 4-8 Outlook
    Day 4-8 Outlook Image
    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0340 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020
    
    Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
    
    ...DISCUSSION...
    On D4/Monday, a seasonably strong shortwave trough is forecast to
    move from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Some
    uncertainty remains regarding the quality of moisture return into
    the northern Plains by Monday afternoon, but increasingly favorable
    wind profiles combined with at least moderate instability will
    support an organized severe thunderstorm threat across some portion
    of the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley. Probabilities will
    likely need to be included in subsequent outlooks when details
    regarding the timing of the upper wave and magnitude of moisture
    return come into better focus. 
    
    For D5/Tuesday and beyond, some severe threat will likely persist
    across some portion of the central/northern Plains into the upper
    Midwest, as a belt of stronger mid/upper-level flow to the north of
    a ridge over the southern Plains/Southeast interacts with a
    persistent axis of moderate-to-strong instability. Predictability
    remains too low to delineate any specific areas at this time.
    
    
    Read more
  • Fri, 10 Jul 2020 01:34:26 -0600: SPC Jul 10, 2020 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
    SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
    Day 3 Outlook Image
    Day 3 Convective Outlook  
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0229 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020
    
    Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
    
    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
    THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...
    
    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday across
    portions of the Southeast into the Ohio Valley.
    
    ...Synopsis...
    Some dampening of the ridge across the Southwest into the southern
    Plains is expected on Sunday, as an upper trough deepens over the
    northwest/northern Rockies. Meanwhile, a broad upper trough is
    forecast to remain in place over the East. 
    
    ...Lower MS Valley into the TN/OH Valleys and Southeast...
    A broad region of modest midlevel northwesterly flow will be in
    place from portions of the MS Valley into the Southeast on Sunday.
    Evolution of convection on D2/Saturday (which remains quite
    uncertain) will influence the severe threat across this region later
    in the day. If sufficient destabilization can occur in the wake of
    any early convection, wind profiles will support some risk of
    organized convection, with a primary risk of locally damaging wind
    and perhaps some hail. 
    
    Further north into portions of the TN/OH Valleys, scattered
    thunderstorms are expected in closer proximity to the primary
    midlevel trough axis. The magnitude of instability with northward
    extent remains uncertain, but effective shear will likely support
    some threat for organized convection during the afternoon, with a
    corresponding risk of locally damaging wind and marginal hail. 
    
    ...Central/northern High Plains...
    Modest low-level moisture return into the central/northern High
    Plains may support at least isolated thunderstorm development Sunday
    afternoon. Wind profiles would conditionally support some organized
    convection, given sufficient instability. Uncertainty regarding the
    coverage of convection and magnitude of instability precludes the
    introduction of probabilities at this time. 
    
    ...Northern New England...
    The glancing influence of a departing shortwave trough may focus
    convection across portions of northern New England on Sunday. There
    is considerable model spread regarding the magnitude of instability
    across this region, but wind profiles would likely support some
    organized severe threat given sufficient buoyancy. Uncertainty
    remains too large at this forecast range to include probabilities
    with this forecast.
    
    ..Dean.. 07/10/2020
    
    
    Read more
  • Fri, 10 Jul 2020 00:39:19 -0600: SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
    SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
    Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
    Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0135 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020
    
    Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
    
    ...Synopsis...
    Strong ridging will continue over much of the southwestern US while
    a shortwave trough will approach the western US Coast late in the
    Day 2/Saturday forecast period. Very warm temperatures are expected
    across much of the Southwest with seasonally low RH, but relatively
    weak winds. Across the eastern US, an upper low over Canada should
    remain in place with abundant low-level moisture and modest flow
    aloft limiting fire weather potential. 
    
    ...Lee of the Cascades...
    The approaching upper-level trough is expected to remain offshore
    through much of the day Saturday, before moving onshore later in the
    period. Relatively dry surface conditions are expected, with RH
    approaching 30% given westerly downslope flow and warm surface
    temperatures. While flow aloft should increase some through the day,
    the lack of overlap between peak heating, the deepest boundary-layer
    mixing, and minimum surface RH suggests that momentum transfer will
    be modest. This should serve to limit fire weather potential to
    mainly elevated conditions. This is also in agreement with the
    current state of fuels, which are expected to remain mostly confined
    to lower elevations and densities, supporting only modest potential
    for large fire growth.
    
    ...Southern Great Basin...
    Very warm and dry surface conditions are expected underneath the
    ridge across the Southwest. Stronger mid-level flow associated with
    a weak mid-level shortwave trough on the periphery of the ridge may
    support locally elevated fire weather conditions across southern/
    central Nevada into far western Utah. A dry thunderstorm or two may
    also develop if sufficient forcing for ascent can be realized from
    the passing shortwave. However, considerable uncertainty in timing
    of the breakdown of the upper-level ridge exists. Should the ridge
    breakdown sooner than current guidance suggests, an elevated area
    and possibly a dry thunder area could be needed.
    
    ..Lyons.. 07/10/2020
    
    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
    
    
    Read more
  • Fri, 10 Jul 2020 00:30:47 -0600: SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
    SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
    Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
    Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0127 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020
    
    Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
    
    ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING ONTO
    THE HIGH PLAINS...
    
    ...Synopsis...
    A strong ridge of high pressure is forecast to continue developing
    over the Southwest and Four Corners regions today, as a shortwave
    trough over the central Rockies will eject eastward onto the High
    Plains. At the surface, to the west of a sharpening lee trough, dry
    and windy conditions are likely to develop along of the Front Range
    into eastern/central Wyoming. At the same time, a cold front will
    sag south through portions of western South Dakota with a cooler and
    more moist boundary layer expected to the north of the front. Across
    the eastern US, A second shortwave trough and the upper-level
    influence of Tropical Storm Fay will dominate the forecast. Abundant
    precipitation and relatively weak flow will likely limit the
    potential for widespread fire weather conditions.
    
    ...Southern and central Wyoming onto the High Plains...
    Increasing mid-level flow is expected to develop ahead of the
    ejecting shortwave trough over the central Rockies and adjacent High
    Plains this afternoon and evening. Surface pressure falls are
    forecast to increase along a develop lee trough across the Front
    Range of eastern Wyoming. Here, westerly downslope flow along with
    strong heating of the boundary layer will likely support single
    digit RH across much of eastern Wyoming and into portions of
    southwestern South Dakota and the Nebraska Panhandle. Model forecast
    soundings show a deeply mixed boundary layer, to around 700 mb,
    intersecting with the increasing flow aloft. Gusty surface winds of
    30-35 mph appear likely, aided by momentum transfer and the
    strengthening pressure gradient associated with the lee trough. The
    combination of very dry surface conditions, gusty winds, and
    receptive fuels will likely support critical fire weather conditions
    across the area.
    
    The potential for elevated conditions exists further southwest into
    the Great Basin region underneath the ridge. However, this area
    should be displaced from stronger flow aloft and the resulting
    low-level mass response. This suggests that only locally elevated
    conditions will be likely, and no additional areas were added.
    
    ..Lyons.. 07/10/2020
    
    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
    
    
    Read more
  • Fri, 10 Jul 2020 00:16:05 -0600: SPC Jul 10, 2020 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
    SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
    Day 2 Outlook Image
    Day 2 Convective Outlook  
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0100 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020
    
    Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
    
    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
    KS...NORTHEAST OK...SOUTHWEST MO...NORTHWEST AR...
    
    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central and
    southern Plains and Ozark Plateau on Saturday. A few strong storms
    are also possible over the coastal Mid-Atlantic and New England.
    
    ...Synopsis...
    An upper ridge is forecast to remain in place from the Southwest
    into the Southern Plains on Saturday, while an upper trough remains
    over much of the East. T.C. Fay is expected to be inland over New
    England at the start of the period Saturday morning and its remnant
    circulation is forecast to move quickly north-northeastward into
    Canada during the day (refer to NHC forecasts for more information).
    Further west, a compact shortwave trough is forecast to move from
    the Ohio Valley into New England by Sunday morning, with additional
    lower-amplitude shortwave troughs likely to be embedded within broad
    northwesterly mid/upper-level flow from the northern Plains into the
    MS Valley.  
    
    ...Southern/central Plains into the Ozark Plateau...
    Elevated convection, possibly in the form of a
    southeastward-propagating MCS, will likely be ongoing at the start
    of the period somewhere from the mid-MO Valley into the Ozark
    Plateau. Any such convection would pose a threat for damaging wind
    and perhaps some hail, given the presence of ample MUCAPE and
    sufficient effective shear. The severe threat into the
    afternoon/evening will be strongly influenced by how any morning
    convection and related outflow boundaries evolve during the day.
    These details remain highly uncertain, but a conditionally favorable
    environment characterized by strong instability and moderate
    effective shear will likely evolve by late afternoon somewhere in
    the vicinity of any remnant boundary. 
    
    The greatest relative risk currently appears to be across eastern
    KS/northeast OK/southwest MO/northwest AR, where multiple scenarios,
    including an early-day MCS and/or redevelopment along a remnant
    boundary during the afternoon/evening, will be possible.
    Accordingly, a Slight Risk has been introduced for this region. 
    
    ...Northern Mid Atlantic into New England...
    While T.C. Fay is forecast to move quickly into Canada sometime
    Saturday morning, rich low-level moisture and modestly enhanced
    low/mid-level flow will likely remain in its wake from the northern
    Mid Atlantic into portions of New England, in advance of the
    shortwave trough moving eastward from the OH Valley. Renewed
    convective development is expected by late morning/early afternoon,
    with the strongest storms capable of localized wind damage. 
    
    ...Southern Mid Atlantic into the Coastal Carolinas...
    Scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon/evening
    from southern portions of the Mid Atlantic into coastal regions of
    NC/SC. Midlevel flow of 20-30 kt may support weakly organized
    updrafts, and locally damaging wind may be possible with the
    strongest storms, though confidence remains too low at this time to
    introduce probabilities.
    
    ..Dean.. 07/10/2020
    
    
    Read more
  • Fri, 10 Jul 2020 00:08:47 -0600: SPC Jul 10, 2020 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
    SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
    Day 1 Outlook Image
    Day 1 Convective Outlook  
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1259 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020
    
    Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
    
    ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
    OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
    
    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM COASTAL NEW
    JERSEY INTO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...
    
    ...SUMMARY...
    Several clusters of severe storms are expected over parts of the
    northern and central Plains this afternoon into tonight. Large to
    very large hail and damaging wind are likely, and a few tornadoes
    are possible.
    
    ...Northern through central Plains regions...
    
    The northern and central Plains will remain within belt of modest
    westerlies today. A low-amplitude shortwave trough currently moving
    through the Pacific Northwest will reach the northern High Plains by
    late afternoon and continue through the Dakotas this evening
    accompanied by a cold front. A minor impulse will precede this
    feature and move through SD during the morning. Warm front will
    become established and extend from a weak surface low over southwest
    SD southeastward through eastern NE and KS. Dryline will extend
    southward through western NE into eastern CO. A cold front will
    approach the western Dakotas by late afternoon.
    
    Easterly low-level winds will persist north of the warm front and in
    advance of the cold front across the Dakotas into northeast WY and
    eastern MT maintaining a corridor of surface dewpoints from the
    upper 50s to low 60s F beneath steep lapse rates. The atmosphere in
    this region will likely become moderately to strongly unstable as
    the boundary layer warms with 2000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE likely by mid
    afternoon. Storms are expected to develop along the cold front as it
    interacts with the destabilizing boundary layer across eastern MT
    and northeast WY. Other storms will develop farther south near
    triple point over southwest SD into northwest NE. Vertical wind
    profiles with veering in the lowest 2 km and 50+ kt effective bulk
    shear will support supercells capable of large to very large hail
    and damaging wind. A few tornadoes are possible, especially with
    storms developing near warm front across SD into northern NE. Some
    of the storms may eventually grow upscale into lines and clusters
    and spread east and southeast posing a risk for more widespread wind
    damage. Though some uncertainty remains, potential will exist for a
    longer lived severe MCS to organize across SD or NE and move
    southeast along instability gradient into the overnight, supported
    by a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet. Have expanded the
    SLGT risk southward for the possibility of this scenario and farther
    southward expansion through eastern KS and western MO might be
    necessary if more confidence is gained in later outlooks.
    
    ...Northeast and southern New England coastal areas...
    
    Tropical storm Fay is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to
    continue moving northward, and the center should be located near the
    central NJ coast by early this evening. Shear in the 0-1 km layer
    will increase from coastal NJ through coastal southern New England
    later today where near-surface dewpoints will reach the low 70s F.
    Best tornado threat with low-topped supercells will evolve during
    the afternoon into the early evening if some surface heating can
    occur between outer rainbands.
    
    ..Dial/Lyons.. 07/10/2020
    
    
    Read more

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Updated: March 6, 2011 — 3:22 am

The Author

Rich Fleetwood

Rich is the founder of SurvivalRing, now in it's 20th year, author of multimedia CDs and DVDs, loves the outdoors, his family, his geeky skill-set, and lives in rural Missouri, just a few miles from the Big Muddy. Always ready to help others, he shares what he learns on multiple blogs, social sites, and more. With a background in preparedness and survival skills, training with county, state, and national organizations, and skills in all areas of media and on air experience in live radio and television, Rich is always thinking about the "big picture", when it comes to helping individuals and families prepare for life's little surprises.

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