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NOAA SPC – Forecasts

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NOAA – Storm Prediction Center – Feed For tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks:

  • Tue, 23 Oct 2018 02:24:59 -0600: SPC Oct 23, 2018 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
    Day 4-8 Outlook
    Day 4-8 Outlook Image
    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0322 AM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018
    
    Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
    
    ...DISCUSSION...
    A mid/upper trough will amplify across the Mississippi Valley on
    D4/Friday. Broad forcing for ascent along its southeastern flank is
    forecast to support a surface cyclone advancing from near the
    Florida Panhandle east/northeastward to near/just offshore the
    Carolina coast. To the south/east of this cyclone, the warm sector
    will support at least modest levels of surface-based buoyancy. In
    conjunction with strengthening low/mid-level wind fields, this
    destabilization may foster some potential for a few strong/severe
    storms during the day. However, subsidence/drying aloft in the wake
    of a prior impulse and veered deep-layer flow may keep most
    convection relatively shallow, while deeper cells remain sparse due
    to weak low-level convergence. Therefore, while some (most likely
    marginal) damaging wind threat could evolve on D4/Friday,
    uncertainty with this potential is too great for highlights.
    
    Thereafter, the potential for severe weather appears low across the
    country through the remainder of the extended period, as an eastern
    US trough prevents significant poleward moisture return.
    
    
    Read more
  • Tue, 23 Oct 2018 02:24:05 -0600: SPC - No watches are valid as of Tue Oct 23 08:25:03 UTC 2018 - SPC Forecast Products
    No watches are valid as of Tue Oct 23 08:25:03 UTC 2018.
  • Tue, 23 Oct 2018 02:24:05 -0600: SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Tue Oct 23 08:25:03 UTC 2018 - SPC Forecast Products
    No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Oct 23 08:25:03 UTC 2018.
  • Tue, 23 Oct 2018 01:13:07 -0600: SPC Oct 23, 2018 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
    SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
    Day 3 Outlook Image
    Day 3 Convective Outlook  
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0211 AM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018
    
    Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
    
    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
    
    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated thunderstorms are expected along the central/eastern Gulf
    Coast on Thursday, but severe weather is not expected.
    
    ...Discussion...
    Weakly cyclonic flow aloft will overspread areas from the central
    Gulf Coast eastward on Thursday. A weak/low-amplitude impulse will
    initially cross the region during the day, and an initial surge of
    warm-air advection may yield enough elevated buoyancy for a few
    thunderstorms from southeastern Louisiana to the western Florida
    Panhandle. Behind this initial impulse, a secondary, more amplified
    shortwave trough will approach the southeastern US Thursday night.
    Strengthening southwesterly 850mb flow and isentropic ascent may
    yield isolated thunderstorms farther east across the Florida
    Peninsula and portions of southern Georgia. 
    
    Through the period, expansive precipitation across inland areas and
    a lack of stronger large-scale ascent near the coast should preclude
    significant poleward return of surface theta-e, limiting
    surface-based destabilization. In turn, severe weather is not
    forecast, despite strengthening wind fields.
    
    ..Picca.. 10/23/2018
    
    
    Read more
  • Tue, 23 Oct 2018 00:46:29 -0600: SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
    SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
    Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
    Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0144 AM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018
    
    Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
    
    ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
    
    ...Synopsis...
    An upper-level jet max will begin to nose into the Pacific Northwest
    on Wednesday as ridging starts to build along the West Coast.  By
    the end of the Day 2 period (i.e., Thursday morning), northwesterly
    flow aloft is forecast to overspread the Great Basin.  In response
    at the surface, high pressure will begin to develop over the
    Intermountain West, leading to the onset of offshore low-level flow
    across southern California.  While afternoon surface conditions over
    inland portions of southern California will be dry (RH values around
    15%), confidence is too low in the development of strong offshore
    flow to highlight elevated fire weather conditions at this time.
    
    ..Jirak.. 10/23/2018
    
    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
    
    
    Read more
  • Tue, 23 Oct 2018 00:44:32 -0600: SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
    SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
    Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
    Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0142 AM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018
    
    Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
    
    ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
    
    ...Synopsis...
    An upper-level shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest
    coast during the day and lift northeastward overnight into British
    Columbia.  While enhanced midlevel and low-level flow will accompany
    this trough, locations with a dry boundary layer (i.e., afternoon
    surface RH values falling below 20%) across central/southern Oregon,
    northeastern California, and northwestern Nevada will only
    experience a modest increase in low-level flow.  Given the
    relatively weak surface pressure gradient across the area, sustained
    winds will likely remain below 15 mph, limiting the overall fire
    weather concerns.
    
    ..Jirak.. 10/23/2018
    
    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
    
    
    Read more
  • Mon, 22 Oct 2018 23:33:05 -0600: SPC Oct 23, 2018 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
    SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
    Day 2 Outlook Image
    Day 2 Convective Outlook  
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1224 AM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018
    
    Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
    
    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
    
    ...SUMMARY...
    Only isolated thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday across the
    western/central Gulf Coast, and severe weather is not forecast.
    
    ...Discussion...
    Downstream of a broad trough ejecting east/northeast across the
    southern Plains on Wednesday, a warm-advection regime will establish
    from eastern Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley. This pattern
    should support widespread rainfall across much of the region, but
    very limited buoyancy will likely preclude thunderstorms in most
    locations. The only exception is expected to exist along the
    middle/upper Texas and Louisiana coasts, where sufficient inland
    destabilization should favor isolated thunderstorm activity. A lack
    of more substantive buoyancy, combined with the unorganized nature
    of the ejecting trough, is expected to preclude severe weather,
    though.
    
    Elsewhere, a couple of lightning strikes may occur over western
    Colorado, but the eastward departure of the primary trough should
    limit cooling aloft, likely keeping any lightning too isolated for a
    general thunder area.
    
    ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
    Tornado:  
    Read more
  • Mon, 22 Oct 2018 23:32:09 -0600: SPC Oct 23, 2018 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
    SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
    Day 1 Outlook Image
    Day 1 Convective Outlook  
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1228 AM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018
    
    Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
    
    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
    ARIZONA AND FAR WESTERN NEW MEXICO...
    
    ...SUMMARY...
    Scattered thunderstorms may produce marginally severe hail and gusty
    winds over parts of eastern Arizona and western New Mexico this
    afternoon and early evening.
    
    ...Synopsis...
    A weak southern-stream mid-level wave - initially positioned over
    Baja California - will traverse portions of the Southwest today and
    reach the Four Corners region tonight.  Downstream of this wave, a
    powerful mid-level trough will amplify southeastward into the
    northeastern CONUS.  Ridging will persist across the central U.S.
    between the two disturbances.
    
    At the surface, a trough will remain positioned across the Lower
    Colorado River Valley and vicinity and move very little through the
    forecast period.  Meanwhile, a low near southeastern Ontario will
    migrate through New York state, then reorganize and deepen late near
    coastal areas of southern New England.  An anticyclone will build
    southeastward across much of the central and southern U.S. in the
    wake of the coastal low.
    
    ...Arizona and western New Mexico...
    Scattered precipitation should be ongoing at the beginning of the
    forecast period over New Mexico due to lift associated with the
    upstream wave.  West of the precipitation shield, models indicate
    surface warming beneath modestly steep mid-level lapse rates (around
    7.5-8C/km) resulting in weak to moderate instability.  Storms should
    redevelop in central Arizona during the afternoon and grow upscale
    into loosely organized clusters while migrating northeastward, with
    an attendant threat for isolated hail/wind given the favorable
    thermodynamic profiles.  
    
    ...New York into southern New England...
    Cold temperatures aloft associated with the approaching mid-level
    trough will contribute to enough destabilization for afternoon
    convection producing a few lightning strikes.  Though instability
    profiles will be weak, steep lapse rates and convection may result
    in enough downward transfer of higher-momentum air for a low-end
    threat of isolated wind gusts - especially in portions of southern
    New England beneath a belt of stronger mid/upper flow.  Flow should
    be weaker in New York state, however.  The severe-wind threat
    currently appears to be too low/unfocused for any probabilities,
    although an upgrade to Marginal may be needed in later outlooks if a
    corridor of locally gusty thunderstorm winds can materialize.
    
    ..Cook/Jirak.. 10/23/2018
    
    
    Read more

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Updated: March 6, 2011 — 3:22 am

The Author

Rich Fleetwood

Rich is the founder of SurvivalRing, now in it's 20th year, author of multimedia CDs and DVDs, loves the outdoors, his family, his geeky skill-set, and lives in rural Missouri, just a few miles from the Big Muddy. Always ready to help others, he shares what he learns on multiple blogs, social sites, and more. With a background in preparedness and survival skills, training with county, state, and national organizations, and skills in all areas of media and on air experience in live radio and television, Rich is always thinking about the "big picture", when it comes to helping individuals and families prepare for life's little surprises. Since 1997, he has provided guidance, authentic government survival history, and commentary on why we all need to get ready for that fateful day in the future, when we have to get our hands dirty and step in to save the day. He is an award winning videographer (2005 Telly Award), has received state and national scholarly recognition (2006 New Century Scholar and All USA Academic Team), and is a natural with computers, technology, gadgets, small furry mammals, and anything on wheels. Rich likes making friends, solving problems, and creating solutions to everyday issues. He doesn't mind mixing things up, when there is a teaching moment ready to happen. As a constitutional conservative, he's staying quite busy these days. The SurvivalRing Radio Show at www.survivalringradio.com will be coming back SOON!

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