NOAA SPC – Forecasts

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NOAA – Storm Prediction Center – Feed For tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks:

  • Tue, 26 Jan 2021 01:26:03 -0700: SPC Tornado Watch 4 Status Reports - SPC Forecast Products
    WW 0004 Status Updates
    WW 0004 Status Image
    
    STATUS REPORT ON WW 4
    
    SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE MEI
    TO 20 SSW TCL TO 55 NNE ATL.
    
    FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0036
    
    ..GLEASON..01/26/21
    
    ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...
    
    
    STATUS REPORT FOR WT 4 
    
    SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 
    
    ALC007-015-021-027-029-037-065-091-105-111-117-121-260940-
    
    AL 
    .    ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
    
    BIBB                 CALHOUN             CHILTON             
    CLAY                 CLEBURNE            COOSA               
    HALE                 MARENGO             PERRY               
    RANDOLPH             SHELBY              TALLADEGA           
    
    
    GAC045-057-067-097-143-223-233-260940-
    
    GA 
    .    GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
    
    CARROLL              CHEROKEE            COBB                
    DOUGLAS              HARALSON            PAULDING            
    POLK                 
    
    
    THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
    REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
    
    Read more
  • Tue, 26 Jan 2021 01:26:02 -0700: SPC Tornado Watch 4 - SPC Forecast Products
    WW 4 TORNADO AL GA 260640Z - 261200Z
    WW 0004 Image
    
    URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
    Tornado Watch Number 4
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1240 AM CST Tue Jan 26 2021
    
    The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
    
    * Tornado Watch for portions of 
      Central and eastern Alabama
      Northwestern Georgia
    
    * Effective this Tuesday morning from 1240 AM until 600 AM CST.
    
    * Primary threats include...
      A couple tornadoes possible
      Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
    
    SUMMARY...A band of strong-severe thunderstorms with embedded
    supercells will shift eastward over the watch area, offering tornado
    and damaging-wind potential for at least a few more hours.
    
    The tornado watch area is approximately along and 30 statute miles
    either side of a line from 25 miles south of Tuscaloosa AL to 70
    miles east northeast of Anniston AL. For a complete depiction of the
    watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
    
    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
    
    REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
    tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
    area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
    threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
    and possible warnings.
    
    &&
    
    OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 3...
    
    AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
    surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
    gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
    storm motion vector 25035.
    
    ...Edwards
    
    
    Read more
  • Tue, 26 Jan 2021 00:59:03 -0700: SPC MD 36 - SPC Forecast Products
    MD 0036 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 4... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AL AND WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHWESTERN GA
    MD 0036 Image
    
    Mesoscale Discussion 0036
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0158 AM CST Tue Jan 26 2021
    
    Areas affected...Portions of central AL and
    west-central/northwestern GA
    
    Concerning...Tornado Watch 4...
    
    Valid 260758Z - 260930Z
    
    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 4 continues.
    
    SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may persist for a couple more
    hours early this morning before gradually diminishing. A couple
    tornadoes and occasional strong/gusty winds should be the main
    threats.
    
    DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery shows a broken line of storms
    extending northeast to southwest across northwestern GA and central
    AL. The low-level flow across this region should have a tendency to
    gradually veer to a more southwesterly direction and slowly weaken
    as the strongest portion of a low-level jet advances into the
    Carolinas over the next few hours. Even so, there should still be
    enough veering/strengthening of the wind field in low levels
    (reference 06Z BMX sounding) to support updraft rotation. A couple
    tornadoes will remain possible in the short term with storms
    advancing northeastward within the broken line. Isolated
    strong/gusty winds producing occasional damage may also occur with
    any cell that can acquire a small bowing structure. Current
    expectations are for this isolated severe threat to gradually
    diminish later this morning as the low-level flow becomes
    increasingly parallel to the ongoing convection, which should reduce
    0-1 km SRH. The marginal thermodynamic environment across
    west-central into northern GA should also limit the eastward extent
    of any meaningful severe risk.
    
    ..Gleason.. 01/26/2021
    
    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
    
    ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...
    
    LAT...LON   32398833 32668824 33148734 33908569 34248512 34368415
                34158410 33778453 33428499 32818609 32388745 32338795
                32398833 
    
    
    Read more
  • Tue, 26 Jan 2021 00:50:58 -0700: SPC Jan 26, 2021 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
    SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
    Day 3 Outlook Image
    Day 3 Convective Outlook  
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0148 AM CST Tue Jan 26 2021
    
    Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
    
    ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
    
    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. Thursday.
    
    ...Discussion...
    The upper pattern over the U.S. will continue to feature troughs
    near both the East and West Coasts, and a broad area of anticyclonic
    flow covering central portions of the country.  Some evolution with
    respect to the eastern trough is expected, as one shorter-wavelength
    feature shifts into the western Atlantic, and is replaced by a low
    advancing southeastward out of Canada and into the Northeast. 
    Meanwhile, the more steady-state western trough will make very slow
    eastward progress toward the West Coast.
    
    At the surface, high pressure will prevail east of the Rockies, with
    ridging/continental air spreading southward across nearly the entire
    Gulf of Mexico.  In the West, a weak Pacific front will move
    gradually onshore, in advance of the aforementioned upper system.
    
    Showers are expected over the West Coast area through much of the
    period, as the trough aloft slowly advances.  Although an
    occasional/isolated lightning flash may occur inland within the
    broader area of weak/low-topped convection, coverage is currently
    expected to remain too sparse to warrant inclusion of a 10% thunder
    area.
    
    ..Goss.. 01/26/2021
    
    
    Read more
  • Tue, 26 Jan 2021 00:39:26 -0700: SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
    SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
    Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
    Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0137 AM CST Tue Jan 26 2021
    
    Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
    
    ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
    
    ...Synopsis...
    A mid-level trough is forecast to move across the southeastern US as
    a strong ridge builds across the west-central portions of the CONUS
    through the day2/Wed forecast period. At the surface, strong high
    pressure will dominate the lower 48, keeping winds relatively light
    and temperatures cool. Fire weather conditions are expected to
    remain tranquil. 
    
    ...South Texas...
    A few hours of locally elevated fire weather conditions may occur
    through the day associated with the relatively dry airmass in place
    across the southern Plains and central Texas. While winds and
    humidity are not expected to overly support fire weather conditions,
    fuels across the area remain receptive to fire spread given little
    recent precipitation.
    
    ..Lyons.. 01/26/2021
    
    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
    
    
    Read more
  • Tue, 26 Jan 2021 00:37:26 -0700: SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
    SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
    Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
    Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0135 AM CST Tue Jan 26 2021
    
    Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
    
    ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
    
    ...Synopsis...
    A shortwave trough over the central and southern US will continue to
    amplify as the overall upper-air pattern favors troughing over the
    West Coast. At the surface, high pressure from Canada will continue
    to build over the northern CONUS, keeping temperatures cool. The
    cool temperatures and recent precipitation should mitigate much of
    the fire weather threat.
    
    ...Texas Trans Pecos...
    Locally elevated fire weather conditions will be possible through
    the afternoon across portions of the Texas Big Bend as downslope
    winds intensify to 20-30 mph. The primary limiting factor for more
    widespread fire weather conditions will be the presence of clouds
    impeding deeper mixing and limiting minimum humidity values. With
    the overlap between the stronger winds and lower humidity likely to
    remain relatively isolated, the threat is expected to stay primarily
    local in nature.
    
    ..Lyons.. 01/26/2021
    
    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
    
    
    Read more
  • Mon, 25 Jan 2021 23:49:48 -0700: SPC Jan 26, 2021 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
    SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
    Day 2 Outlook Image
    Day 2 Convective Outlook  
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1246 AM CST Tue Jan 26 2021
    
    Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
    
    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
    
    ...SUMMARY...
    No severe weather is expected across the U.S. on Wednesday.
    
    ...Discussion...
    While an upper trough evolves near/just off the West Coast, a second
    system -- initially crossing the central and southern Plains -- will
    move steadily eastward.  This trough is forecast to reach the Ohio
    and Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf Coast region during the
    afternoon, and then will continue east overnight clearing the East
    Coast by the end of the period.  In its wake, a broadening zone of
    anticyclonic flow aloft will expand to include much of the country
    by the end of the period.
    
    At the surface, high pressure is forecast across much of the
    country.  One exception will be over the Southeast, where a
    northeast-to-southwest baroclinic zone will lie at the start of the
    period, sagging slowly southward into/across Florida as a weak
    frontal wave crosses Georgia and then moves offshore during the
    afternoon.
    
    Showers and embedded thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the
    start of the period over portions of the Southeast -- particularly
    in the vicinity of the aforementioned front.  While a stronger storm
    or two may occur over the southern Alabama/Florida
    Panhandle/southwestern Georgia vicinity, mainly early in the period,
    any severe risk appears likely at this time to remain minimal, at
    best.
    
    ..Goss.. 01/26/2021
    
    
    Read more
  • Mon, 25 Jan 2021 23:24:03 -0700: SPC Tornado Watch 3 Status Reports - SPC Forecast Products
    WW 0003 Status Updates
    WW 0003 Status Image
    
    STATUS REPORT ON WW 3
    
    SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE MEI
    TO 20 N BHM TO 10 SW RMG.
    
    FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0035
    
    ..GLEASON..01/26/21
    
    ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...OHX...
    
    
    STATUS REPORT FOR WT 3 
    
    SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 
    
    ALC007-009-015-019-029-055-063-065-073-115-117-119-121-125-
    260740-
    
    AL 
    .    ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
    
    BIBB                 BLOUNT              CALHOUN             
    CHEROKEE             CLEBURNE            ETOWAH              
    GREENE               HALE                JEFFERSON           
    ST. CLAIR            SHELBY              SUMTER              
    TALLADEGA            TUSCALOOSA          
    
    
    THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
    REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
    INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
    CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
    
    
    Read more
  • Mon, 25 Jan 2021 22:42:59 -0700: SPC Jan 26, 2021 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
    SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
    Day 1 Outlook Image
    Day 1 Convective Outlook  
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1139 PM CST Mon Jan 25 2021
    
    Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
    
    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
    THE SOUTHEAST...
    
    ...SUMMARY...
    Thunderstorms associated with strong wind gusts will be possible
    this afternoon into early evening across parts of the Southeast.
    
    ...Southeast...
    Southwest mid-level flow will be in place today across the
    Southeast. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward
    across the central Gulf Coast States. The front is forecast to be
    located from southern Alabama into central Georgia by mid afternoon.
    Surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will contribute to weak
    destabilization by afternoon, with SBCAPE reaching the 500 to 750
    J/kg range just ahead of the front. Thunderstorms are expected to
    develop along and ahead of the front during the mid to late
    afternoon as instability maximizes. The instability combined with 45
    to 55 kt of deep-layer shear should support a marginal wind damage
    threat from the Florida Panhandle northeastward across southwestern
    Georgia. Although a few strong wind gusts will be possible,
    low-level lapse rates are not forecast to be that steep. For this
    reason, any wind damage threat should remain localized. The
    potential for marginally severe wind gusts may persist into the
    early evening as thunderstorms linger in areas that have the
    strongest instability.
    
    ..Broyles/Lyons.. 01/26/2021
    
    
    Read more

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Updated: March 6, 2011 — 3:22 am

The Author

Rich Fleetwood

Rich is the founder of SurvivalRing, now in it's 24th year, author of multimedia CDs and DVDs, loves the outdoors, his family, his geeky skill-set, and lives in rural southern Wyoming, just below the continental divide (long story, that...). Always ready to help others, he shares what he learns on multiple blogs, many social sites, and more. With a background in preparedness and survival skills, training with county, state, and national organizations, and skills in all areas of media and on air experience in live radio and television, Rich is always thinking about the "big picture", when it comes to helping individuals and families prepare for life's little surprises.

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