NOAA SPC – Forecasts

Below are some of my favorite websites, showing their latest content from RSS feeds.

If you’d like recommend a website feed to add here, please post a comment with your request.

Rich

NOAA – Storm Prediction Center – Feed For tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks:

  • Mon, 14 Jun 2021 18:00:09 -0600: SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 270 Status Reports - SPC Forecast Products
    WW 0270 Status Updates
    WW 0270 Status Image
    
    STATUS REPORT ON WW 270
    
    SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW HGR
    TO 35 WNW ILG TO 40 E CXY TO 30 W ABE TO 30 SSE MSV.
    
    FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0972
    
    ..MOORE..06/14/21
    
    ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...BGM...
    
    
    STATUS REPORT FOR WS 270 
    
    SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 
    
    NJC005-007-015-019-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-037-041-150040-
    
    NJ 
    .    NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
    
    BURLINGTON           CAMDEN              GLOUCESTER          
    HUNTERDON            MERCER              MIDDLESEX           
    MONMOUTH             MORRIS              OCEAN               
    SALEM                SOMERSET            SUSSEX              
    WARREN               
    
    
    PAC011-017-029-045-077-091-095-101-150040-
    
    PA 
    .    PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
    
    BERKS                BUCKS               CHESTER             
    DELAWARE             LEHIGH              MONTGOMERY          
    NORTHAMPTON          PHILADELPHIA        
    
    
    THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
    
    Read more
  • Mon, 14 Jun 2021 18:00:08 -0600: SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 271 Status Reports - SPC Forecast Products
    WW 0271 Status Updates
    WW 0271 Status Image
    
    STATUS REPORT ON WW 271
    
    THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
    
    FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0974
    
    ..MOORE..06/14/21
    
    ATTN...WFO...LWX...
    
    
    STATUS REPORT FOR WS 271 
    
    SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 
    
    MDC001-023-043-150040-
    
    MD 
    .    MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
    
    ALLEGANY             GARRETT             WASHINGTON          
    
    
    VAC043-069-139-171-187-840-150040-
    
    VA 
    .    VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
    
    CLARKE               FREDERICK           PAGE                
    SHENANDOAH           WARREN              
    
    
    VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
    
    WINCHESTER           
    
    
    WVC003-023-027-031-037-057-065-150040-
    
    
    Read more
  • Mon, 14 Jun 2021 18:00:06 -0600: SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 271 - SPC Forecast Products
    WW 271 SEVERE TSTM MD VA WV 142000Z - 150100Z
    WW 0271 Image
    
    URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
    Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 271
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    400 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021
    
    The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
    
    * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
      Maryland Panhandle
      Northern Virginia
      Eastern West Virginia Panhandle
    
    * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until
      900 PM EDT.
    
    * Primary threats include...
      Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible
      Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
    
    SUMMARY...Discrete cells should spread east-southeast from southwest
    Pennsylvania and may develop south across the eastern West Virginia
    Panhandle.
    
    The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
    statute miles north and south of a line from 75 miles west of
    Martinsburg WV to 20 miles south southeast of Martinsburg WV. For a
    complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
    update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
    
    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
    
    REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
    favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
    Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
    weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
    warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
    tornadoes.
    
    &&
    
    OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 269...WW 270...
    
    AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
    1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A
    few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
    30030.
    
    ...Grams
    
    
    Read more
  • Mon, 14 Jun 2021 18:00:05 -0600: SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 272 Status Reports - SPC Forecast Products
    WW 0272 Status Updates
    WW 0272 Status Image
    
    STATUS REPORT ON WW 272
    
    SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW PKB
    TO 40 E PKB TO 10 S MGW TO 30 ENE MGW.
    
    FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0974
    
    ..MOORE..06/14/21
    
    ATTN...WFO...RLX...PBZ...
    
    
    STATUS REPORT FOR WS 272 
    
    SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 
    
    WVC001-017-033-041-049-077-083-085-091-093-097-107-150040-
    
    WV 
    .    WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
    
    BARBOUR              DODDRIDGE           HARRISON            
    LEWIS                MARION              PRESTON             
    RANDOLPH             RITCHIE             TAYLOR              
    TUCKER               UPSHUR              WOOD                
    
    
    THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
    REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
    INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
    CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
    
    
    Read more
  • Mon, 14 Jun 2021 18:00:04 -0600: SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 273 Status Reports - SPC Forecast Products
    WW 0273 Status Updates
    WW 0273 Status Image
    
    STATUS FOR WATCH 0273 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
    
    Read more
  • Mon, 14 Jun 2021 18:00:04 -0600: SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 272 - SPC Forecast Products
    WW 272 SEVERE TSTM WV 142055Z - 150100Z
    WW 0272 Image
    
    URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
    Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 272
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    455 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021
    
    The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
    
    * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
      Northern West Virginia
    
    * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 455 PM until
      900 PM EDT.
    
    * Primary threats include...
      Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
      Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
    
    SUMMARY...A cluster with embedded supercell structures may develop
    from thunderstorms currently in southeast Ohio, as they spread
    across northern West Virginia through about dusk.
    
    The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35
    statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles east northeast
    of Elkins WV to 20 miles north of Parkersburg WV. For a complete
    depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
    (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
    
    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
    
    REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
    favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
    Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
    weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
    warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
    tornadoes.
    
    &&
    
    OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 269...WW 270...WW 271...
    
    AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
    1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
    few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
    29030.
    
    ...Grams
    
    
    Read more
  • Mon, 14 Jun 2021 18:00:04 -0600: SPC MD 973 - SPC Forecast Products
    MD 0973 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHERN VIRGINIA INTO MARYLAND AND DELAWARE
    MD 0973 Image
    
    Mesoscale Discussion 0973
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0541 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021
    
    Areas affected...Northern Virginia into Maryland and Delaware
    
    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 
    
    Valid 142241Z - 150045Z
    
    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
    
    SUMMARY...The environment ahead of an approaching cold front is
    supportive for strong to severe thunderstorms across northern
    Virginia, eastern Maryland, and Delaware. Storms along, and possibly
    ahead of the front will pose a risk for severe hail and damaging
    wind into the evening hours.
    
    DISCUSSION...Strong convection continues to develop along a cold
    front across southern PA into northern WV, resulting in a few wind
    damage reports as they move to the east. Ahead of this front across
    northern VA and MD, temperatures in the 80s and low 90s with
    dewpoints in the 60s are supporting 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE with
    minimal inhibition per RAP mesoanalysis estimates. Additionally,
    strong upper-level flow over the region is supporting 40-50 knots of
    effective bulk shear, which will help organize any convection that
    develops in this thermodynamic environment. 
    
    Thunderstorms will likely move into the northern VA region by 00 UTC
    along the front, but convective development ahead of the front
    within a subtle lee trough (where a growing field of cumulus is
    noted in recent GOES imagery) is possible in the coming hours. Shear
    vectors oriented nearly along the front should support semi-discrete
    to linear clusters that will pose a hail and damaging wind risk.
    While there is some uncertainty regarding the exact timing of storm
    arrival and the potential for increasing MLCIN after 01 UTC with the
    onset of diurnal cooling, the environment should generally remain
    supportive of a severe risk into the evening hours. A watch will
    likely be needed to cover this threat.
    
    ..Moore/Guyer.. 06/14/2021
    
    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
    
    ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...
    
    LAT...LON   38557889 39097795 39457739 39747686 39967608 39817514
                39127509 38317535 37977597 37887654 37957706 38027767
                38207894 38557889 
    
    
    Read more
  • Mon, 14 Jun 2021 18:00:04 -0600: SPC MD 972 - SPC Forecast Products
    MD 0972 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 270... FOR EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY
    MD 0972 Image
    
    Mesoscale Discussion 0972
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0518 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021
    
    Areas affected...Eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey
    
    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 270...
    
    Valid 142218Z - 150015Z
    
    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 270
    continues.
    
    SUMMARY...The environment ahead of an approaching cold front will
    remain supportive of strong to severe thunderstorms across WW 270
    over the next few hours.
    
    DISCUSSION...Surface analysis of observations across the
    Mid-Atlantic show a cold front continuing to push eastward across
    central to eastern PA. Ahead of this front temperatures remain in
    the 80s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. This warm/moist
    boundary layer is supporting upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE with
    limited inhibition per recent mesoanalysis estimates. Recent GOES
    visible imagery shows agitated cumulus and a few convective towers
    across eastern PA into northern NJ, which support the thermodynamic
    estimates. Effective bulk shear values near 50 knots will help
    organized any stronger updrafts that develop along the front, and
    shear/boundary orientations suggest a mixture of embedded discrete
    and linear clusters that will pose a hail/damaging wind threat over
    the next few hours.
    
    ..Moore.. 06/14/2021
    
    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
    
    ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...CTP...LWX...
    
    LAT...LON   40227660 40487610 40847528 41207483 41277422 41007383
                40517378 39967394 39447420 39257470 39327523 39517580
                39837646 40227660 
    
    
    Read more
  • Mon, 14 Jun 2021 18:00:03 -0600: SPC MD 974 - SPC Forecast Products
    MD 0974 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 271...272... FOR NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...WESTERN MARYLAND AND FAR NORTHWEST VIRGINIA.
    MD 0974 Image
    
    Mesoscale Discussion 0974
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0637 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021
    
    Areas affected...Northern West Virginia...western Maryland and far
    northwest Virginia.
    
    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 271...272...
    
    Valid 142337Z - 150130Z
    
    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 271, 272
    continues.
    
    SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across WW 271 as well as WW
    272. Damaging winds will continue to be the primary hazard, but a
    few instances of severe hail remain possible. Given coming watch
    expirations in the next 1-2 hours, local extensions may be needed
    before storms exit the watch areas.
    
    DISCUSSION...Several damaging wind reports, as well as a few
    instances of quarter-sized hail, have been noted with a broken line
    of storms across northern WV over the past 1-2 hours. Although these
    storms have primarily been discrete to semi-discrete, regional
    reflectivity and velocity data suggests that at least one or two
    cells are beginning to develop organized outflows and take on more
    linear characteristics. This is the expected evolution given storm
    motion and deep-layer shear orientation to the initiating cold
    front, and may support an increasing damaging wind threat in the
    coming hours (though isolated severe hail will remain possible). One
    mitigating factor is reduced instability immediately ahead of these
    storms as they move across the higher terrain of northeast WV where
    temperatures and dewpoints are cooler compared to surrounding
    locations. However, re-intensification is possible as storms
    transverse the terrain and move into a more unstable air mass across
    northwest VA (see MCD 973 for details).
    
    ..Moore.. 06/14/2021
    
    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
    
    ATTN...WFO...LWX...PBZ...RLX...
    
    LAT...LON   39158144 39438056 39657966 39717896 39677797 39267789
                38877830 38577863 38497925 38658006 38908095 39018155
                39158144 
    
    
    Read more
  • Mon, 14 Jun 2021 17:50:03 -0600: SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 270 - SPC Forecast Products
    WW 270 SEVERE TSTM DE NJ PA CW 141805Z - 150100Z
    WW 0270 Image
    
    URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
    Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 270
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    205 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021
    
    The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
    
    * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
      Northern Delaware
      New Jersey
      Eastern Pennsylvania
      Coastal Waters
    
    * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 205 PM until
      900 PM EDT.
    
    * Primary threats include...
      Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
      Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
    
    SUMMARY...A cluster with splitting cells should evolve east from
    western Pennsylvania. Additional cells may form near the Delaware
    Valley, before spreading east towards the New Jersey coast.
    
    The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
    statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles northwest of
    Harrisburg PA to 20 miles north northeast of Lakehurst NJ. For a
    complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
    update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
    
    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
    
    REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
    favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
    Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
    weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
    warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
    tornadoes.
    
    &&
    
    OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 269...
    
    AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
    1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
    few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
    29035.
    
    ...Grams
    
    
    Read more
  • Mon, 14 Jun 2021 17:25:04 -0600: SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 273 - SPC Forecast Products
    WW 273 SEVERE TSTM DC DE MD NJ VA CW 142325Z - 150600Z
    WW 0273 Image
    
    URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
    Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 273
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    725 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021
    
    The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
    
    * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
      District Of Columbia
      Delaware
      Central and Eastern Maryland
      Southern New Jersey
      Northern and Eastern Virginia
      Coastal Waters
    
    * Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 725 PM
      until 200 AM EDT.
    
    * Primary threats include...
      Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
      Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
      A tornado or two possible
    
    SUMMARY...Clusters of storms are expected to develop and/or move
    into the region from the west-northwest this evening, with an
    increasing potential for damaging winds, some severe hail, and
    possibly a brief tornado risk. The downstream air mass is warm and
    unstable. The severe risk is expected to continue well into the late
    evening and early overnight hours before storms weaken and/or clear
    the coast.
    
    The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
    statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles east southeast
    of Dover DE to 50 miles west of Washington DC. For a complete
    depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
    (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
    
    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
    
    REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
    favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
    Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
    weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
    warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
    tornadoes.
    
    &&
    
    OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 270...WW 271...WW 272...
    
    AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
    1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
    few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
    29030.
    
    ...Guyer
    
    
    Read more
  • Mon, 14 Jun 2021 14:34:04 -0600: SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 269 Status Reports - SPC Forecast Products
    WW 0269 Status Updates
    WW 0269 Status Image
    
    STATUS REPORT ON WW 269
    
    SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE ZZV TO
    10 SSE LBE TO 30 WSW UNV TO 35 ESE UNV.
    
    ..GLEASON..06/14/21
    
    ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CTP...
    
    
    STATUS REPORT FOR WS 269 
    
    SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 
    
    OHC013-059-111-121-142140-
    
    OH 
    .    OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
    
    BELMONT              GUERNSEY            MONROE              
    NOBLE                
    
    
    PAC009-013-021-051-057-059-061-087-111-125-129-142140-
    
    PA 
    .    PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
    
    BEDFORD              BLAIR               CAMBRIA             
    FAYETTE              FULTON              GREENE              
    HUNTINGDON           MIFFLIN             SOMERSET            
    WASHINGTON           WESTMORELAND        
    
    
    WVC049-051-061-069-077-103-142140-
    
    WV 
    .    WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
    
    
    Read more
  • Mon, 14 Jun 2021 14:02:34 -0600: SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
    SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
    Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
    Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0301 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021
    
    Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
    
    ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN...
    ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
    MONTANA...
    
    Expanded the elevated delineation northeastward into north-central
    Montana and into north-central Wyoming. Very deep mixing is expected
    amid strengthening deep-layer flow. A wind shift is also forecast
    across northern Montana during the afternoon. This will cool surface
    temperatures somewhat, but winds expected to increase substantially
    and thus could lead to rapidly changing conditions near any ongoing
    fires. 
    
    In addition, added a small critical area from southwest Montana into
    south-central Montana. This is where the strongest mid-level winds
    (50-60 mph) are expected to overspread the well-mixed airmass.
    Multiple fires are also ongoing in this region which will likely be
    impacted by these strong winds.
    
    ..Bentley.. 06/14/2021
    
    .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021/
    
    ...Synopsis...
    An upper-level trough, currently residing off the West Coast, is
    forecast to translate across the Pacific Northwest through the day
    Tuesday. Resulting surface pressure falls ahead of this wave will
    help consolidate a surface low over the northern Rockies with a
    trailing trough across the Great Basin. This will help strengthen
    pressure-gradient winds again Tuesday afternoon across the broader
    West, with the strongest winds expected over parts of the Great
    Basin under a mid-level flow maximum. Building high pressure behind
    the main synoptic wave will augment pressure-gradient winds across
    parts of southern California, resulting in increased fire weather
    concerns.
    
    ...Great Basin...
    Little to no moisture recovery will yield another day of single
    digit RH values across much of the Great Basin. Fuels are largely
    receptive across most of the region, and may experience further
    curing after Monday's hot/dry conditions. Surface winds are forecast
    to increase through the day to 15-25 mph across a large swath of the
    Great Basin and northern Rockies within the synoptic trough. A belt
    of stronger mid-level flow is forecast to reside over the Great
    Basin, which will likely mix down to the surface and support 25-35
    mph wind gusts thanks to deep boundary-layer mixing. This corridor
    will see the highest potential for sustained critical conditions
    with elevated conditions likely as far north as north-central MT
    (though fuels across central/northern MT may not be as receptive as
    compared to locations farther south).
    
    ...Southern California...
    Building high pressure over northern CA Tuesday will help drive a -4
    to -5 mb KSMX/KSBA pressure gradient. Northerly Sundowner winds to
    30-40 mph (and perhaps locally stronger) are expected Tuesday into
    Tuesday night across the coastal foothills of Santa Barbara county.
    Warm temperatures and downslope warming/drying will aid in RH
    reductions into the teens, and perhaps single digits for a few
    locations. With ERC values increasing due to limited rainfall in
    recent weeks, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions
    appear likely.
    
    ...Arizona into New Mexico...
    Mid-level moisture is forecast to gradually shift west within the
    weak easterly flow regime on the southern periphery of an
    upper-level high over the Four Corners. Thermodynamic profiles are
    forecast to be supportive of a few dry thunderstorms with deep
    boundary-layer mixing and limited, but sufficient, instability.
    Recent ensemble guidance has a stronger QPF signal compared to
    previous days, indicating that at least a mixture of wet and dry
    storms is possible. However, fuels across this area are receptive to
    dry lightning strikes with several large fires noted across the
    AZ/NM region.
    
    In addition to the dry lightning threat, southeasterly winds will
    likely increase to 15-20 mph by late afternoon across southeast
    AZ/southwest NM as the southern extension of the main synoptic
    trough diurnally deepens amid very warm temperatures. Relative
    humidity values in the single digits to low teens are expected,
    which will support elevated fire weather conditions.
    
    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
    
    
    Read more
  • Mon, 14 Jun 2021 13:44:47 -0600: SPC Jun 14, 2021 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
    SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
    Day 1 Outlook Image
    Day 1 Convective Outlook  
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0240 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021
    
    Valid 142000Z - 151200Z
    
    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
    AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO
    NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION...
    
    ...SUMMARY...
    Scattered damaging wind gusts appear most likely across parts of the
    central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic regions through tonight.
    
    ...20Z Outlook Update...
    Some adjustments have been made to categorical and probabilistic
    lines to account for latest trends in model output, destabilization
    and progression of synoptic features.
    
    Across the Appalachians/northern Mid Atlantic Coast region, moderate
    to strong boundary-layer destabilization is largely confined to the
    coastal plain, near/east of lee surface troughing, with modest
    destabilization also ongoing across parts of the Allegheny Plateau. 
    Across the valleys to the east of the Allegheny Front, downslope
    drying has resulted in a corridor of weak to negligible instability,
    which may inhibit ongoing convection, at least until its remnants
    reach the coastal plain this evening. 
    
    There is still some signal in model output of renewed thunderstorm
    development across parts of northeastern West Virginia by this
    evening, in response to forcing for ascent downstream of the next
    perturbation digging southeast of the Great Lakes region (and
    contributing to more substantive larger-scale trough amplification).
     This activity may intensify while spreading across northern
    Virginia and central Maryland, toward coastal areas later this
    evening, posing a risk for severe wind and hail.
    
    ..Kerr.. 06/14/2021
    
    .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021/
    
    ...Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic...
    A leading shortwave trough will gradually shift east from southern
    ON into NY, while an upstream trough amplifies from the Upper Great
    Lakes towards the central Appalachians through tonight. A belt of
    strong mid-level westerlies in excess of 50 kts at 500-mb should be
    sustained from OH to the DE Valley vicinity through this afternoon,
    before shifting south in advance of the upstream trough. Multiple
    rounds of scattered thunderstorms are expected through tonight.
    
    The first round will focus along the surface cold front across far
    eastern OH, western PA, and northern WV as modest buoyancy (MLCAPE
    of 600-1200 J/kg) develops where greater insolation is underway. A
    nearly straight-line and elongating hodograph with effective bulk
    shear increasing to near 50 kt should support a few splitting
    supercells embedded within an organized eastward-moving cluster.
    Weak mid-level lapse rates and greater boundary-layer moisture
    should be limiting factors to a more robust severe threat, but
    scattered damaging winds and isolated large hail appear possible.
    Convection will likely be sustained through this evening into
    tonight owing to the amplification of the trailing shortwave trough
    along with the presence of richer boundary-layer moisture across the
    Chesapeake region to NJ. A continued threat for damaging winds,
    along with a tornado will likely be maximized in these areas between
    00-06Z until convection shifts offshore. 
    
    ...Central High Plains...
    A mid-level anticyclone will remain anchored near the Four Corners
    with small height rises to its north through this evening across the
    central/northern High Plains.  Forcing for ascent will be weak, but
    terrain circulations and an upslope low-level flow component should
    support isolated, high-based thunderstorm development amid a deeply
    mixed thermodynamic profile to the east of the higher terrain from
    northeast CO to eastern WY. Isolated storms may also form along a
    quasi-stationary front across western to central NE. Pockets of
    MLCAPE from 2000-2500 J/kg and effective bulk shear of 35-45 kt with
    mid-upper westerlies atop low-level southeasterly flow supports a
    conditional severe wind/hail threat.
    
    ...Southwest TX...
    A southwest-moving MCV should progress towards the Trans-Pecos
    through this evening. On the southern and eastern fringes of ongoing
    convection, strong surface heating/mixing will result in
    moderate buoyancy and inverted-v profiles. New storm development
    during the afternoon near the MCV could pose a threat for isolated
    strong/damaging downbursts.
    
    ...Eastern OR/WA to MT...
    A shortwave impulse embedded within the broad upper trough off the
    West Coast should eject inland into OR/WA tonight. A large swath of
    strong but meridional mid-level flow should further strengthen in
    association with this wave. While buoyancy will likely remain weak,
    the highly elongated hodographs yield a conditional threat of a
    supercell this evening across northeast OR/eastern WA. More likely,
    elevated convection is anticipated overnight where residual steep
    mid-level lapse rates may support isolated severe hail and gusty
    winds with convection that develops in this region through the ID
    Panhandle. 
    
    Farther east, isolated high-based convection should develop off the
    higher terrain of the northern Rockies despite the presence of the
    nearby ridge axis. Flow aloft will be weak, but the very deeply
    mixed thermodynamic profiles warrant a risk for isolated severe
    winds.
    
    
    Read more

FEEDS FAIR USE: All links on these feeds go directly to the Author’s website and original posts. Only sites that offer RSS (Really Simple Syndication) feeds will be added to the SurvivalRing FEEDS section.

FEEDS DISCLAIMER: All content share via these RSS feeds are the responsibility of the ORIGINAL AUTHOR. I, Richard Fleetwood, owner and founder of SurvivalRing, may or may not agree with some, any, or all of the FEED CONTENT shared by these websites. We offers these feeds SOLELY to help spread awareness of great content resources. These FEEDS may disappear at any time, due to content changes, removal requests, technical issues, or lack of interest. Please visit the ORIGINAL AUTHOR’S website and BOOKMARK their URLs to your browser.

FEED REMOVAL: If you, as an owner of one of these FEEDS, would like to have me remove your RSS FEED from SurvivalRing, simply use the CONTACT ME page, with your request. I will remove your feed and links to your site.

Updated: March 6, 2011 — 3:22 am

The Author

Rich Fleetwood

Rich is the founder of SurvivalRing, now in it's 24th year, author of multimedia CDs and DVDs, loves the outdoors, his family, his geeky skill-set, and lives in rural southern Wyoming, just below the continental divide (long story, that...). Always ready to help others, he shares what he learns on multiple blogs, many social sites, and more. With a background in preparedness and survival skills, training with county, state, and national organizations, and skills in all areas of media and on air experience in live radio and television, Rich is always thinking about the "big picture", when it comes to helping individuals and families prepare for life's little surprises.

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.