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NOAA – Storm Prediction Center – Feed For tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks:
- Wed, 19 Sep 2018 18:00:03 -0600: SPC MD 1480 - SPC Forecast Products
MD 1480 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN/CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1480 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0531 PM CDT Wed Sep 19 2018 Areas affected...Portions of southwestern/central/northeastern Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 192231Z - 200030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Storms will likely initiate along a slow moving front within the next hour or two. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats. A WW is possible. DISCUSSION...An area of agitated cumulus, on visible satellite imagery, near the slow moving front in southwest Nebraska has persisted over the past hour. Given the long residence time of parcels within the zone of ascent as compared to the warm front farther east, this appears to be the most likely area for initial storm development. SPC objective analysis shows mid-level lapse rates of 7.5-8 C/km and 50-70 kts of effective deep layer shear. Given this environment, a few instances of large hail are possible. Isolated severe wind gusts will also be possible with the strongest cells. While enhanced SRH near the warm front is supportive of low-level rotation, storms that form are expected to quickly move north of the boundary which should limit the overall tornado threat. A WW is possible. ..Wendt/Thompson.. 09/19/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD... LAT...LON 41110130 41720060 42349869 42629698 41769634 41229835 40550046 40260106 40380146 40790168 41110130Read more - Wed, 19 Sep 2018 17:59:07 -0600: SPC - No watches are valid as of Thu Sep 20 00:00:03 UTC 2018 - SPC Forecast Products
No watches are valid as of Thu Sep 20 00:00:03 UTC 2018. - Wed, 19 Sep 2018 13:55:55 -0600: SPC Sep 19, 2018 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Wed Sep 19 2018 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms, mainly with a threat for hail and damaging winds, are possible across parts of the north-central Plains to upper Mississippi Valley. ...NE/IA... For the 20Z update, we extended the existing 2% tornado area westward along/north of the outflow boundary in NE, where several more hours of heating will continue to destabilize the air mass, and where low level shear is conditionally favorable for a supercell. However, warming aloft may have a tendency to counteract the otherwise favorable factors. A storm or two may eventually form later this afternoon, with hail most likely, but with a conditional threat of a brief/likely weak tornado. ..Jewell.. 09/19/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT Wed Sep 19 2018/ ...Central Plains to Upper Mississippi Valley... Morning water vapor loop shows an expansive upper ridge across the central/southern US, with the southern fringe of stronger westerlies extending from WY into parts of NE/IA/IL. Multiple rounds of convection have resulted in a complex zone of surface boundaries from CO to IA, which will aid in the initiation of storms later today. It appears likely that a few clusters of strong to occasionally severe storms will intensify during the peak-heating hours this afternoon and evening, with hail and locally damaging wind gusts possible. Sufficient deep-layer shear will promote a few rotating cells, but the overall organization of the clusters will likely be limited. Thus will maintain the ongoing MRGL risk designation.
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