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NOAA SPC – Forecasts

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Rich

NOAA – Storm Prediction Center – Feed For tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks:

  • Mon, 17 Dec 2018 03:48:27 -0700: SPC - No watches are valid as of Mon Dec 17 10:49:02 UTC 2018 - SPC Forecast Products
    No watches are valid as of Mon Dec 17 10:49:02 UTC 2018.
  • Mon, 17 Dec 2018 01:58:57 -0700: SPC Dec 17, 2018 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
    Day 4-8 Outlook
    Day 4-8 Outlook Image
    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0252 AM CST Mon Dec 17 2018
    
    Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
    
    ...DISCUSSION...
    Late-evening model guidance continues to suggest a substantial
    deepening of an eastern US trough during the latter half of the
    week. Significant height falls are forecast across the Gulf basin
    Thursday as a strong 500mb speed max rotates into and through the
    base of the trough before translating across the FL Peninsula. As a
    result, high-PW air mass should advance northward ahead of this
    feature and substantial instability appears likely to evolve across
    the southern FL Peninsula prior to a strong cold frontal passage.
    Given that strong shear will overspread this region, organized
    severe convection appears possible, especially if buoyancy can
    return to FL as currently forecast.
    
    Beyond day4, higher-instability air mass will be shunted offshore
    and the threat for severe convection is minimized.
    
    
    Read more
  • Mon, 17 Dec 2018 00:25:37 -0700: SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
    SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
    Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
    Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0122 AM CST Mon Dec 17 2018
    
    Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
    
    ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
    
    ...Synopsis...
    Upper-level troughing is forecast over much of the central CONUS
    with upper-level ridging establishing over both coasts following
    trough passages on Tuesday. Lee troughing is likely to develop again
    across the southern High Plains on Tuesday, but northerly winds will
    lower temperatures/increase RH across much of the High Plains.
    Overall, fire weather concerns will be minimal across the CONUS on
    Tuesday.
    
    ..Nauslar.. 12/17/2018
    
    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
    
    
    Read more
  • Mon, 17 Dec 2018 00:06:42 -0700: SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
    SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
    Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
    Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0104 AM CST Mon Dec 17 2018
    
    Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
    
    ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
    
    ...Synopsis...
    An upper-level shortwave trough will continue moving eastward over
    the Southwest/southern High Plains on Monday following behind a
    weaker, shortwave trough passage. In response, lee troughing will
    develop across the central/southern High Plains resulting in locally
    enhanced winds and lower RH. Locally elevated conditions may develop
    across this area as sustained 15-25 mph surface winds develop in the
    vicinity of lee troughing and below enhanced low-level (850-700 mb)
    southwesterly flow (25-40 mph). However, RH values should remain
    mostly above 20% precluding any elevated areas.
    
    ..Nauslar.. 12/17/2018
    
    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
    
    
    Read more
  • Mon, 17 Dec 2018 00:04:04 -0700: SPC MD 1714 - SPC Forecast Products
    MD 1714 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE
    MD 1714 Image
    
    Mesoscale Discussion 1714
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0103 AM CST Mon Dec 17 2018
    
    Areas affected...southern and eastern Maine
    
    Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 
    
    Valid 170703Z - 171300Z
    
    SUMMARY...Snow, perhaps mixed with freezing rain or sleet, will
    remain possible through the overnight hours.
    
    DISCUSSION...Frontogenesis in the 850-700-millibar layer within the
    warm-conveyor belt has resulted in a band of heavy precipitation
    along the southeast coast of Maine. This band will continue to pivot
    northwest through the overnight hours. In the vicinity of this band,
    surface temperatures have fallen below 32F, despite RAP forecasts
    suggesting temperatures would remain near or above 32F. Modifying
    the RAP soundings for the observed colder surface temperatures, wet
    snow is likely, but given the strength of the warm-air advection
    within the warm-conveyor belt, temperatures within the
    850-700-millibar layer may approach, or even exceed, 0C. As such,
    precipitation may mix with, or change to, freezing rain or sleet
    overnight.
    
    ..Marsh/Goss.. 12/17/2018
    
    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
    
    ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...
    
    LAT...LON   44197086 45246936 45826711 44936676 44246739 43256962
                43007082 44197086 
    
    
    Read more
  • Sun, 16 Dec 2018 23:52:30 -0700: SPC Dec 17, 2018 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
    SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
    Day 3 Outlook Image
    Day 3 Convective Outlook  
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1249 AM CST Mon Dec 17 2018
    
    Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
    
    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
    
    ...SUMMARY...
    Scattered thunderstorms will be noted near the central Gulf coast
    Wednesday with more isolated activity possible across Florida.
    
    ...Gulf Coast/FL...
    
    Southern-stream short-wave trough will eject across south TX during
    the day2 period before significantly stronger 500mb flow digs
    southeast into the southern High Plains late Wednesday forcing a
    much more pronounced trough to evolve over the MS Valley.
    Substantial mid-level height falls over the Gulf basin are expected
    to induce numerous bouts of convection along a baroclinic zone that
    should remain mostly offshore through the period. While there is
    some concern that a modified Gulf air mass may approach the central
    coast, widespread convection will likely prevent this primary
    boundary from advancing inland and the prospect for severe
    convection should remain minimal due to expected weak buoyancy.
    
    Downstream across the FL Peninsula, 850mb flow is forecast to
    strengthen ahead of the trough across the southern/eastern Gulf
    basin toward the end of the period. This strengthening flow field
    should aid northward advance of more moist/buoyant air toward the
    southern Peninsula. Given that large-scale forcing for ascent will
    likely remain well west of this region will not introduce severe
    probs as the main corridor of convection is expected to remain over
    the Gulf of Mexico.
    
    ..Darrow.. 12/17/2018
    
    
    Read more

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Updated: March 6, 2011 — 3:22 am

The Author

Rich Fleetwood

Rich is the founder of SurvivalRing, now in it's 20th year, author of multimedia CDs and DVDs, loves the outdoors, his family, his geeky skill-set, and lives in rural Missouri, just a few miles from the Big Muddy. Always ready to help others, he shares what he learns on multiple blogs, social sites, and more. With a background in preparedness and survival skills, training with county, state, and national organizations, and skills in all areas of media and on air experience in live radio and television, Rich is always thinking about the "big picture", when it comes to helping individuals and families prepare for life's little surprises. Since 1997, he has provided guidance, authentic government survival history, and commentary on why we all need to get ready for that fateful day in the future, when we have to get our hands dirty and step in to save the day. He is an award winning videographer (2005 Telly Award), has received state and national scholarly recognition (2006 New Century Scholar and All USA Academic Team), and is a natural with computers, technology, gadgets, small furry mammals, and anything on wheels. Rich likes making friends, solving problems, and creating solutions to everyday issues. He doesn't mind mixing things up, when there is a teaching moment ready to happen. As a constitutional conservative, he's staying quite busy these days. The SurvivalRing Radio Show at www.survivalringradio.com will be coming back SOON!

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