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NOAA – Storm Prediction Center – Feed For tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks:
- Tue, 23 Oct 2018 02:24:59 -0600: SPC Oct 23, 2018 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid/upper trough will amplify across the Mississippi Valley on D4/Friday. Broad forcing for ascent along its southeastern flank is forecast to support a surface cyclone advancing from near the Florida Panhandle east/northeastward to near/just offshore the Carolina coast. To the south/east of this cyclone, the warm sector will support at least modest levels of surface-based buoyancy. In conjunction with strengthening low/mid-level wind fields, this destabilization may foster some potential for a few strong/severe storms during the day. However, subsidence/drying aloft in the wake of a prior impulse and veered deep-layer flow may keep most convection relatively shallow, while deeper cells remain sparse due to weak low-level convergence. Therefore, while some (most likely marginal) damaging wind threat could evolve on D4/Friday, uncertainty with this potential is too great for highlights. Thereafter, the potential for severe weather appears low across the country through the remainder of the extended period, as an eastern US trough prevents significant poleward moisture return.
Read more - Tue, 23 Oct 2018 02:24:05 -0600: SPC - No watches are valid as of Tue Oct 23 08:25:03 UTC 2018 - SPC Forecast Products
No watches are valid as of Tue Oct 23 08:25:03 UTC 2018. - Tue, 23 Oct 2018 02:24:05 -0600: SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Tue Oct 23 08:25:03 UTC 2018 - SPC Forecast Products
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Oct 23 08:25:03 UTC 2018. - Tue, 23 Oct 2018 01:13:07 -0600: SPC Oct 23, 2018 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are expected along the central/eastern Gulf Coast on Thursday, but severe weather is not expected. ...Discussion... Weakly cyclonic flow aloft will overspread areas from the central Gulf Coast eastward on Thursday. A weak/low-amplitude impulse will initially cross the region during the day, and an initial surge of warm-air advection may yield enough elevated buoyancy for a few thunderstorms from southeastern Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle. Behind this initial impulse, a secondary, more amplified shortwave trough will approach the southeastern US Thursday night. Strengthening southwesterly 850mb flow and isentropic ascent may yield isolated thunderstorms farther east across the Florida Peninsula and portions of southern Georgia. Through the period, expansive precipitation across inland areas and a lack of stronger large-scale ascent near the coast should preclude significant poleward return of surface theta-e, limiting surface-based destabilization. In turn, severe weather is not forecast, despite strengthening wind fields. ..Picca.. 10/23/2018
Read more - Tue, 23 Oct 2018 00:46:29 -0600: SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level jet max will begin to nose into the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday as ridging starts to build along the West Coast. By the end of the Day 2 period (i.e., Thursday morning), northwesterly flow aloft is forecast to overspread the Great Basin. In response at the surface, high pressure will begin to develop over the Intermountain West, leading to the onset of offshore low-level flow across southern California. While afternoon surface conditions over inland portions of southern California will be dry (RH values around 15%), confidence is too low in the development of strong offshore flow to highlight elevated fire weather conditions at this time. ..Jirak.. 10/23/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more - Tue, 23 Oct 2018 00:44:32 -0600: SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast during the day and lift northeastward overnight into British Columbia. While enhanced midlevel and low-level flow will accompany this trough, locations with a dry boundary layer (i.e., afternoon surface RH values falling below 20%) across central/southern Oregon, northeastern California, and northwestern Nevada will only experience a modest increase in low-level flow. Given the relatively weak surface pressure gradient across the area, sustained winds will likely remain below 15 mph, limiting the overall fire weather concerns. ..Jirak.. 10/23/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more - Mon, 22 Oct 2018 23:33:05 -0600: SPC Oct 23, 2018 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Only isolated thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday across the western/central Gulf Coast, and severe weather is not forecast. ...Discussion... Downstream of a broad trough ejecting east/northeast across the southern Plains on Wednesday, a warm-advection regime will establish from eastern Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley. This pattern should support widespread rainfall across much of the region, but very limited buoyancy will likely preclude thunderstorms in most locations. The only exception is expected to exist along the middle/upper Texas and Louisiana coasts, where sufficient inland destabilization should favor isolated thunderstorm activity. A lack of more substantive buoyancy, combined with the unorganized nature of the ejecting trough, is expected to preclude severe weather, though. Elsewhere, a couple of lightning strikes may occur over western Colorado, but the eastward departure of the primary trough should limit cooling aloft, likely keeping any lightning too isolated for a general thunder area. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: Read more
- Mon, 22 Oct 2018 23:32:09 -0600: SPC Oct 23, 2018 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA AND FAR WESTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms may produce marginally severe hail and gusty winds over parts of eastern Arizona and western New Mexico this afternoon and early evening. ...Synopsis... A weak southern-stream mid-level wave - initially positioned over Baja California - will traverse portions of the Southwest today and reach the Four Corners region tonight. Downstream of this wave, a powerful mid-level trough will amplify southeastward into the northeastern CONUS. Ridging will persist across the central U.S. between the two disturbances. At the surface, a trough will remain positioned across the Lower Colorado River Valley and vicinity and move very little through the forecast period. Meanwhile, a low near southeastern Ontario will migrate through New York state, then reorganize and deepen late near coastal areas of southern New England. An anticyclone will build southeastward across much of the central and southern U.S. in the wake of the coastal low. ...Arizona and western New Mexico... Scattered precipitation should be ongoing at the beginning of the forecast period over New Mexico due to lift associated with the upstream wave. West of the precipitation shield, models indicate surface warming beneath modestly steep mid-level lapse rates (around 7.5-8C/km) resulting in weak to moderate instability. Storms should redevelop in central Arizona during the afternoon and grow upscale into loosely organized clusters while migrating northeastward, with an attendant threat for isolated hail/wind given the favorable thermodynamic profiles. ...New York into southern New England... Cold temperatures aloft associated with the approaching mid-level trough will contribute to enough destabilization for afternoon convection producing a few lightning strikes. Though instability profiles will be weak, steep lapse rates and convection may result in enough downward transfer of higher-momentum air for a low-end threat of isolated wind gusts - especially in portions of southern New England beneath a belt of stronger mid/upper flow. Flow should be weaker in New York state, however. The severe-wind threat currently appears to be too low/unfocused for any probabilities, although an upgrade to Marginal may be needed in later outlooks if a corridor of locally gusty thunderstorm winds can materialize. ..Cook/Jirak.. 10/23/2018
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