NOAA SPC – Forecasts

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NOAA – Storm Prediction Center – Feed For tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks:

  • Tue, 28 Jan 2020 05:56:50 -0700: SPC Jan 28, 2020 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
    SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
    Day 1 Outlook Image
    Day 1 Convective Outlook  
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0649 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2020
    
    Valid 281300Z - 291200Z
    
    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
    
    ...SUMMARY...
    Scattered thunderstorms may impact portions of the southern Plains
    into the northwest Gulf coast vicinity today into tonight, and
    isolated lightning flashes will also be possible across the Pacific
    Northwest.
    
    ...Synopsis...
    A progressive flow regime persists today, as one midlevel shortwave
    trough digs southeastward from the Pacific Northwest this morning to
    the Great Basin overnight, and a downstream trough translates
    eastward from the southern Plains to the lower MS Valley.  A few
    lightning flashes will be possible this morning along the WA/OR
    coasts as the primary baroclinic zone and midlevel trough move
    inland.  Some weak convection will also be possible east of the
    Cascades later today, where marginal buoyancy could support isolated
    lightning flashes from eastern OR into western ID.
    
    The threat for scattered thunderstorms will persist today in the
    warm conveyor belt across TX/OK.  Buoyancy will remain largely
    elevated inland where the stronger forcing for ascent will be, with
    the richer low-level moisture and near-surface buoyancy confined to
    along or just off the TX/LA coasts.  A very narrow corridor of weak
    surface-based CAPE will be possible this afternoon near the surface
    cyclone across north TX, beneath the midlevel trough.  However,
    severe storms are not expected due to weak vertical shear in this
    same corridor, and only marginal buoyancy.
    
    ..Thompson/Leitman.. 01/28/2020
    
    
    Read more
  • Tue, 28 Jan 2020 05:56:24 -0700: SPC - No watches are valid as of Tue Jan 28 12:57:01 UTC 2020 - SPC Forecast Products
    No watches are valid as of Tue Jan 28 12:57:01 UTC 2020.
  • Tue, 28 Jan 2020 05:56:16 -0700: SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Tue Jan 28 12:57:01 UTC 2020 - SPC Forecast Products
    No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Jan 28 12:57:01 UTC 2020.
  • Tue, 28 Jan 2020 01:56:56 -0700: SPC Jan 28, 2020 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
    Day 4-8 Outlook
    Day 4-8 Outlook Image
    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0251 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2020
    
    Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
    
    ...DISCUSSION...
    Friday (Day 4) Model consensus is that a southern-stream shortwave
    trough will deamplify as it phases with a northern-stream trough and
    continues east northeast through the Southeastern States. A warm
    front will move north into southern FL accompanied by weak
    instability, but the front will remain south of the corridor of
    stronger vertical shear accompanying the deamplifying shortwave
    trough. While some risk for severe storms could evolve from this
    potential scenario as storms develop in vicinity of the warm front,
    current indications are that instability will probably remain too
    marginal for a more substantial threat. 
    
    Saturday-Sunday (days 5-6) The boundary across FL will transition to
    a cold front as cyclogenesis commences off the Atlantic seaboard in
    association with the progressive southern-stream shortwave trough.
    The front will move off the FL Peninsula during the day, and while a
    few thunderstorms may develop along this boundary, instability is
    expected to remain too weak for a substantial severe threat. Later
    Saturday through Sunday the Gulf frontal intrusion will result in
    stable conditions inland.
    
    By days 7-8 (Monday-Tuesday) richer Gulf moisture will begin
    returning through east TX and the lower MS Valley ahead of the next
    shortwave trough. While a severe threat might evolve from east TX
    into the Southeast States during this period, too much uncertainty
    exists regarding timing and amplitude of these waves to introduce a
    categorical severe risk area at this time.
    
    
    Read more

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Updated: March 6, 2011 — 3:22 am

The Author

Rich Fleetwood

Rich is the founder of SurvivalRing, now in it's 20th year, author of multimedia CDs and DVDs, loves the outdoors, his family, his geeky skill-set, and lives in rural Missouri, just a few miles from the Big Muddy. Always ready to help others, he shares what he learns on multiple blogs, social sites, and more. With a background in preparedness and survival skills, training with county, state, and national organizations, and skills in all areas of media and on air experience in live radio and television, Rich is always thinking about the "big picture", when it comes to helping individuals and families prepare for life's little surprises.

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