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NOAA – Storm Prediction Center – Feed For SPC Fire Weather Outlooks
- Sat, 28 Mar 2020 14:42:03 -0600: SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 67 Status Reports - SPC Forecast Products
WW 0067 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 67 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..03/28/20 ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...ILN...CLE...RLX...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 67 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC001-005-009-011-013-015-017-021-023-027-029-031-035-041-045- 047-049-053-055-057-059-063-065-067-069-071-075-079-081-083-093- 095-097-101-103-105-107-109-119-121-131-133-135-137-139-145-153- 157-159-161-165-167-169-171-177-179-181-282140- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BARTHOLOMEW BLACKFORD BOONE BROWN CARROLL CASS CLAY CLINTON DAVIESS DEARBORN DECATUR DELAWARE FAYETTE FOUNTAIN FRANKLIN FULTON GRANT GREENE HAMILTON HANCOCK HENDRICKS HENRY HOWARD HUNTINGTON JACKSON JAY JENNINGS JOHNSON KNOX LAWRENCE MADISON MARION MARTIN MIAMI MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN OWEN PARKE PULASKI PUTNAM RANDOLPH RIPLEY RUSH SHELBY SULLIVAN TIPPECANOE TIPTON UNION VERMILLION VIGO WABASH WARREN
Read more - Sat, 28 Mar 2020 14:42:03 -0600: SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 67 - SPC Forecast Products
WW 67 SEVERE TSTM IN OH PA WV 281740Z - 290000ZURGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 67 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 140 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of much of Indiana much of Ohio western Pennsylvania the northern West Virginia Panhandle * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 140 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to continue to increase in coverage across the Ohio Valley area this afternoon, with the stronger storms capable of producing locally damaging winds and large hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles east of Pittsburgh PA to 15 miles north northwest of Terre Haute IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27040. ...Goss
Read more - Sat, 28 Mar 2020 14:42:02 -0600: SPC PDS Tornado Watch 69 - SPC Forecast Products
WW 69 TORNADO IA IL MO 281940Z - 290200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 69 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 240 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of parts of central and eastern Iowa portions of central and northern Illinois northeastern Missouri * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 240 PM until 900 PM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forecast to gradually increase in both coverage and intensity over the next few hours, with several intense supercell storms expected to evolve. Along with risk for damaging winds and very large hail, several tornadoes -- including the potential for a few being significant/long-track -- can be expected. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 110 statute miles either side of a line from 35 miles north northwest of Cedar Rapids IA to 70 miles south southeast of Quincy IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 67...WW 68... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 22040. ...GossRead more - Sat, 28 Mar 2020 14:42:02 -0600: SPC Tornado Watch 69 Status Reports - SPC Forecast Products
WW 0069 Status UpdatesSTATUS REPORT ON WW 69 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..03/28/20 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...LSX...ILX...LOT...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 69 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-009-011-013-017-019-021-029-039-041-045-053-057-061-067- 071-073-075-083-095-099-103-105-107-109-113-115-117-123-125-129- 131-135-137-139-143-147-149-155-161-167-169-171-173-175-179-183- 187-195-203-282140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BROWN BUREAU CALHOUN CASS CHAMPAIGN CHRISTIAN COLES DE WITT DOUGLAS EDGAR FORD FULTON GREENE HANCOCK HENDERSON HENRY IROQUOIS JERSEY KNOX LA SALLE LEE LIVINGSTON LOGAN MCDONOUGH MCLEAN MACON MACOUPIN MARSHALL MASON MENARD MERCER MONTGOMERY MORGAN MOULTRIE PEORIA PIATT PIKE PUTNAM ROCK ISLAND SANGAMON SCHUYLER SCOTT SHELBY STARK TAZEWELL VERMILION WARREN WHITESIDE WOODFORD
Read more - Sat, 28 Mar 2020 14:39:02 -0600: SPC Tornado Watch 68 Status Reports - SPC Forecast Products
WW 0068 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 68 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW ELD TO 40 SSE HOT TO 20 WSW LIT TO 35 NNW LIT TO 25 W BVX TO 30 E FLP TO 30 NE UNO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0252 ..BENTLEY..03/28/20 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 68 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-011-013-021-023-025-031-035-037-039-041-043-045-049-053- 055-063-065-067-069-075-077-079-085-093-095-103-107-111-117-119- 121-123-125-135-137-145-147-282140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS BRADLEY CALHOUN CLAY CLEBURNE CLEVELAND CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS DALLAS DESHA DREW FAULKNER FULTON GRANT GREENE INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON JEFFERSON LAWRENCE LEE LINCOLN LONOKE MISSISSIPPI MONROE OUACHITA PHILLIPS POINSETT PRAIRIE PULASKI RANDOLPH ST. FRANCIS SALINE SHARP STONE WHITE WOODRUFF
Read more - Sat, 28 Mar 2020 14:39:02 -0600: SPC Tornado Watch 68 - SPC Forecast Products
WW 68 TORNADO AR MO 281910Z - 290000ZURGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 68 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 210 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of central and eastern Arkansas the Bootheel of Missouri * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 210 PM until 700 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forecast to increase gradually in coverage and intensity over the next few hours across Arkansas, as a cold front crosses the region. Risk for damaging winds and hail can be expected, along with a couple of tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles northwest of Walnut Ridge AR to 50 miles west southwest of Monticello AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 67... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Goss
Read more - Sat, 28 Mar 2020 14:37:18 -0600: SPC Center Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO) - SPC Forecast Products
Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0336 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2020 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Midwest this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Much of Illinois Central and eastern Iowa Western and central Indiana Northeastern Missouri * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size Scattered damaging winds * SUMMARY... A severe-weather outbreak is expected for portions of the Midwest this afternoon and evening. A few long-tracked, significant tornadoes are possible, along with large, damaging hail and severe gusts. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Gleason.. 03/28/2020
Read more - Sat, 28 Mar 2020 14:13:36 -0600: SPC Mar 28, 2020 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL AND FAR EASTERN IA... ...SUMMARY... A severe-weather outbreak is expected for portions of the Midwest this afternoon and evening. A few long-tracked, significant tornadoes are possible, along with large, damaging hail and severe gusts. ...20Z Update... Numerous showers and thunderstorms earlier this morning and early afternoon have hampered substantial destabilization across parts of IL and eastern IA so far today. Even so, instability is still forecast to gradually increase through the remainder of the afternoon into this evening as modest diurnal heating occurs in tandem with moistening low levels and cooling mid-level temperatures with the approach of the upper trough. Shear profiles will be quite favorable for supercells, and the potential for both tornadoes and large hail remains evident. However, there is concern that instability may not reach levels previously forecast due to the persistent cloud cover and earlier/ongoing precipitation. Regardless, will maintain the Moderate Risk area across parts of northern/central IL and far eastern IA with no changes given the very strong shear profiles and developing convection across portions of MO and southern/central IA. A 30% wind area has been introduced for parts of the mid MS Valley and Mid-South into IN. Convection gradually increasing in intensity across AR along the cold front will shift northeastward across this region through the afternoon and evening as low-level flow strengthens. A linear mode will likely dominate with damaging winds the main threat, but embedded supercells and QLCS mesovorticies with some tornado potential also appear possible. Accordingly, the Enhanced Risk has been expanded southward/eastward to account for this potential. A modest expansion of the Marginal and Slight Risk areas has been made from parts of the Southeast into the TN Valley and lower OH Valley to account for bands of convection capable of producing isolated damaging winds and perhaps a couple tornadoes late this evening into the overnight hours. Instability should slowly wane towards the end of the period, and a gradual reduction is storm intensity should occur with eastward extent. The Marginal and Slight Risk areas have been expanded a little eastward into parts of western PA and vicinity to account for ongoing strong to severe convection capable of mainly large hail and damaging winds. This activity should weaken with eastward extent into central PA where instability is much more limited. Finally, severe probabilities have been reduced across parts of TX and AR behind an eastward-moving cold front/dryline. ..Gleason.. 03/28/2020 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020/ ...Synopsis... A deepening mid-/upper-level low -- now moving east-northeastward across Nebraska/Kansas -- will advance to western Iowa by early evening, and will be accompanied by an 80 to 100 kt southwesterly mid-level jet. The jet streak will cross the Ozarks and lower Missouri/mid Mississippi Valleys this afternoon, and then into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys overnight, atop lower-level southerlies in the 40 to 60 kt range. This veering/increasing of flow with height will yield a very favorably-sheared environment over a broad area. At the surface, a deepening low is analyzed over northeastern Kansas, and will move northeastward across the mid Missouri Valley this afternoon, and then across Iowa this evening and into Wisconsin overnight. A trailing cold front is currently crossing eastern Kansas/eastern Oklahoma and eastern/southeastern Texas, and will reach the mid and lower Mississippi Valley vicinity by early evening. A warm front currently extends eastward from the low across northern Missouri into central Illinois/central Indiana, and will lift northward with time across northern Missouri, Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana as the parent low moves northeastward, allowing warm/moist/destabilizing air to spread across these areas through early evening. By the end of the period, the low will have occluded over Wisconsin, with the cold front approaching the west slopes of the Appalachians and the warm front extending east-southeastward from the Great lakes region to the mid-Atlantic area. ...Mid Mississippi Valley/Midwest region... A significant outbreak of severe weather remains apparent from parts of eastern Iowa and eastern Missouri, eastward into the Midwest/Ohio Valley. Widespread clouds, and ongoing showers/thunderstorms, persist across much of the risk area at this time -- along and ahead of the cold front from southern Missouri to eastern Texas and near/north of the warm front from Iowa eastward to Pennsylvania -- which continues to complicate the forecast in terms of finer-scale details. Generally, severe risk across the region is expected to occur within two regimes: 1. A gradual increase in coverage/intensity of the ongoing storms near the cold and warm fronts, as modest, local heating/destabilization combine with a steady increase in the flow field aloft, and 2. New storm development -- initially expected from northeastern Missouri into southeastern Iowa in the 19 to 21z time frame -- as ongoing convection and cloud cover shifts eastward/northeastward allowing surface heating/desabilization to occur beneath steepening mid-level lapse rates and increasingly strong flow aloft. Broadly speaking, storms increasing from Arkansas and southeastern Missouri, and eastward across Illinois and Indiana will continue to pose an initial risk for hail and possibly locally strong wind gusts. With time, as both the kinematic and thermodynamic environment improve, more intense/rotating storms will gradually evolve, posing greater severe potential. Greatest tornado risk will likely occur with northward extent, nearer the warm front, though some potential will expand across areas as far south as parts of Tennessee and northern Mississippi this evening as severe storms spread eastward. Greatest risk for long-track/significant tornadoes, along with potential for very large/destructive hail and damaging wind gusts, still appears to exist from portions of northeastern Missouri and arcing northwestward into Iowa, and then eastward across Illinois and into Indiana. This risk will largely exist with new/intense storm development this afternoon in the wake of the initial convection -- but also potentially evolving with a few intensifying storms within the initial/ongoing band of convection -- along/near the warm front into Indiana. As the storms intensify rapidly this afternoon in response to the rapidly evolving environment, expect peak tornado risk to occur through late afternoon and into early evening, spreading from eastern Iowa/northeast Missouri across the remainder of the MDT and ENH risk areas. Given existing uncertainties due to ongoing precipitation/cloud cover, and anticipated/rapid changes in the environment as the warm front lifts northward and clouds thin/clear from the west, confidence remains too low to delineate a potentially concentrated area of greatest risk, which would otherwise support high risk upgrade. As the situation evolves, a possible upgrade remains possible for the 20Z outlook update, given the larger-scale pattern/environment which continues to appear favorable for several significant tornadoes.
Read more - Sat, 28 Mar 2020 14:04:03 -0600: SPC MD 253 - SPC Forecast Products
MD 0253 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 67... FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AND OHIO INTO SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0253 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 Areas affected...Parts of central Indiana and Ohio into southwestern Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 67... Valid 282003Z - 282130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 67 continues. SUMMARY...Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm activity may persist near/north of the Interstate 70 corridor another couple of hours, before diminishing by 6-8 PM EDT. DISCUSSION...Frontolysis appears underway, from west to east, along the Interstate 70 corridor, with the primary surface frontal zone redeveloping northward into southern portions of the Great Lakes region through early evening. However, scattered vigorous thunderstorm development persists, probably aided by inflow of unstable boundary layer air characterized by CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg. Given the increasingly widespread nature to the convection, and general stabilization of the surrounding boundary layer due to rain cooling and decreasing insolation, convective intensities seem likely to trend downward through 6-8 PM EDT. However, until then, widely scattered strong storms, perhaps including a small evolving cluster approaching northern portions of the Indianapolis metro area, may continue to pose a risk for severe hail and locally strong surface gusts. ..Kerr.. 03/28/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND... LAT...LON 40178722 40558601 40888394 40908150 41148034 40927960 40417920 39778032 39728200 39728370 39608522 39658692 40178722Read more - Sat, 28 Mar 2020 13:57:02 -0600: SPC MD 252 - SPC Forecast Products
MD 0252 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 68... FOR EASTERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0252 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 Areas affected...Eastern Arkansas Concerning...Tornado Watch 68... Valid 281956Z - 282130Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 68 continues. SUMMARY...The severe weather threat continues in tornado watch 68 with a main threat of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. DISCUSSION...Storm coverage has increased along a cold front in central Arkansas, but storm intensity has remained mostly limited. The 19Z LZK sounding shows very weak mid-level lapse rates (~6 C/km) and MLCAPE less than 1000 J/kg. In addition, winds below 1km are less than 20 knots while effective shear is 80 knots beneath a 90 kt 500mb jet streak. This meager thermodynamic profile combined with a highly sheared environment likely explains the lack of robust updraft growth across central Arkansas despite adequate forcing for pre-frontal development as parcel acceleration is not great enough to balance the strong shear. Some brief QLCS tornadoes will be possible, especially in northern Arkansas later this afternoon and this evening as the low-level jet strengthens, but otherwise, wind damage along the line will likely be the primary threat. Even the wind damage will likely remain isolated, especially in the southern half of the watch, given the weak low-level flow. ..Bentley.. 03/28/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 33439335 34719289 35569273 36189238 36419157 36459054 36478990 36288951 34759042 33409138 33389247 33439335Read more - Sat, 28 Mar 2020 12:57:27 -0600: SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z The elevated area was expanded southeastward into portions of the Lower Pecos River Valley/eastern portions of the Trans-Pecos. Low-level return flow will begin to strengthen tomorrow afternoon/evening across this area in response to the approaching upper-level shortwave trough amid a dry airmass. Elevated conditions may also develop across western portions of the Trans-Pecos, but confined the expansion to where the strongest low-level jet/return flow response will likely occur. ..Nauslar.. 03/28/2020 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0257 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020/ ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude upper trough is forecast to move from the Southwest into the southern Rockies by Sunday night. A weak surface low may begin to develop across portions of NM in response to this feature. Another day of elevated fire-weather conditions is expected over portions of NM and adjacent west TX, though the critical threat appears diminished compared to previous days. ...New Mexico and adjacent west TX... While winds should generally diminish across much of the southern Rockies/Plains compared to previous days, relatively dry and breezy conditions will persist across much of NM into adjacent portions of west TX. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph combined with minimum RH values of 10-20% will result in elevated fire-weather conditions for several hours on Sunday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more - Sat, 28 Mar 2020 11:35:00 -0600: SPC Mar 28, 2020 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OH VALLEY...LOWER GREAT LAKES...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Sunday across parts of the upper Ohio Valley, lower Great Lakes, central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic. ...Upper Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes and Central Appalachians... A strong, closed upper low will migrate east-northeastward from the Upper Midwest across the Great Lakes Sunday, eventually reaching southern Ontario/Quebec by the end of the period. A belt of 70-90+ kt mid-level southwesterly flow will overspread much of the upper OH Valley, lower Great Lakes, and central Appalachians by Sunday afternoon. At the surface, a low will also develop over the same regions while gradually occluding. A surface warm front will likely make only modest northward progress across western/central PA through the day. A low-topped convective line along or just ahead of an eastward-moving cold front should be ongoing at the start of the period Sunday morning roughly from Lake Erie southward across OH and into parts of eastern KY. Although instability across these areas will likely remain limited due to modest low-level moisture (mid 50s to lower 60s surface dewpoints), there will be very strong low to mid-level shear present. This will support the potential for continued storm organization as they move quickly east-northeastward through the morning and early afternoon. Strong to locally damaging winds appear to be the main threat given the very strong flow expected in the boundary layer, but a tornado cannot be ruled out mainly Sunday morning across parts of eastern OH into WV and western PA. Storms will likely weaken as they reach the crest of the Appalachians by Sunday afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic... Large-scale ascent is forecast to remain fairly weak Sunday across the Mid-Atlantic. However, some modest mid-level height falls should overspread this region by Sunday afternoon. Latest model guidance also suggests the possibility of a weak, secondary surface low developing over MD and vicinity through the day. More robust diurnal heating is expected across this region, and weak to potentially moderate instability (MLCAPE 500-1500 J/kg) should develop along/south of a surface warm front that will likely be located across parts of central/eastern PA into southern/central NJ. Effective bulk shear of 50-70+ kt would easily support supercells, with all severe hazards possible. The main uncertainty is whether any storms will form along/ahead of the cold front. Latest guidance shows substantial variability regarding overall convective coverage across this region. For now, have opted to expand the Marginal Risk eastward across much of the Mid-Atlantic to account for this somewhat conditional potential. ...North Carolina... The possibility of surface-based storm development even farther south into NC appears very questionable/uncertain, since large-scale ascent will likely be very weak. Forecast instability/shear parameters would conditionally support a severe threat with any storms that form along/ahead of the cold front. But, the potential for convective development Sunday afternoon remains too low to extend marginal hail/wind probabilities into NC at this time. ...Tennessee/Alabama/Georgia... A shallow, broken line of storms will likely be ongoing Sunday morning along the cold front. These storms should weaken through the morning as large-scale ascent remains focused farther north. Accordingly, this region does not appear to warrant low severe probabilities for wind. ..Gleason.. 03/28/2020
Read more - Sat, 28 Mar 2020 10:44:19 -0600: SPC Mar 28, 2020 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
SPC 1630Z Day 1 OutlookDay 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN IOWA AND INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... A severe-weather outbreak is expected for portions of the Midwest this afternoon and evening. A few long-tracked, significant tornadoes are possible, along with large, damaging hail and severe gusts. ...Synopsis... A deepening mid-/upper-level low -- now moving east-northeastward across Nebraska/Kansas -- will advance to western Iowa by early evening, and will be accompanied by an 80 to 100 kt southwesterly mid-level jet. The jet streak will cross the Ozarks and lower Missouri/mid Mississippi Valleys this afternoon, and then into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys overnight, atop lower-level southerlies in the 40 to 60 kt range. This veering/increasing of flow with height will yield a very favorably-sheared environment over a broad area. At the surface, a deepening low is analyzed over northeastern Kansas, and will move northeastward across the mid Missouri Valley this afternoon, and then across Iowa this evening and into Wisconsin overnight. A trailing cold front is currently crossing eastern Kansas/eastern Oklahoma and eastern/southeastern Texas, and will reach the mid and lower Mississippi Valley vicinity by early evening. A warm front currently extends eastward from the low across northern Missouri into central Illinois/central Indiana, and will lift northward with time across northern Missouri, Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana as the parent low moves northeastward, allowing warm/moist/destabilizing air to spread across these areas through early evening. By the end of the period, the low will have occluded over Wisconsin, with the cold front approaching the west slopes of the Appalachians and the warm front extending east-southeastward from the Great lakes region to the mid-Atlantic area. ...Mid Mississippi Valley/Midwest region... A significant outbreak of severe weather remains apparent from parts of eastern Iowa and eastern Missouri, eastward into the Midwest/Ohio Valley. Widespread clouds, and ongoing showers/thunderstorms, persist across much of the risk area at this time -- along and ahead of the cold front from southern Missouri to eastern Texas and near/north of the warm front from Iowa eastward to Pennsylvania -- which continues to complicate the forecast in terms of finer-scale details. Generally, severe risk across the region is expected to occur within two regimes: 1. A gradual increase in coverage/intensity of the ongoing storms near the cold and warm fronts, as modest, local heating/destabilization combine with a steady increase in the flow field aloft, and 2. New storm development -- initially expected from northeastern Missouri into southeastern Iowa in the 19 to 21z time frame -- as ongoing convection and cloud cover shifts eastward/northeastward allowing surface heating/desabilization to occur beneath steepening mid-level lapse rates and increasingly strong flow aloft. Broadly speaking, storms increasing from Arkansas and southeastern Missouri, and eastward across Illinois and Indiana will continue to pose an initial risk for hail and possibly locally strong wind gusts. With time, as both the kinematic and thermodynamic environment improve, more intense/rotating storms will gradually evolve, posing greater severe potential. Greatest tornado risk will likely occur with northward extent, nearer the warm front, though some potential will expand across areas as far south as parts of Tennessee and northern Mississippi this evening as severe storms spread eastward. Greatest risk for long-track/significant tornadoes, along with potential for very large/destructive hail and damaging wind gusts, still appears to exist from portions of northeastern Missouri and arcing northwestward into Iowa, and then eastward across Illinois and into Indiana. This risk will largely exist with new/intense storm development this afternoon in the wake of the initial convection -- but also potentially evolving with a few intensifying storms within the initial/ongoing band of convection -- along/near the warm front into Indiana. As the storms intensify rapidly this afternoon in response to the rapidly evolving environment, expect peak tornado risk to occur through late afternoon and into early evening, spreading from eastern Iowa/northeast Missouri across the remainder of the MDT and ENH risk areas. Given existing uncertainties due to ongoing precipitation/cloud cover, and anticipated/rapid changes in the environment as the warm front lifts northward and clouds thin/clear from the west, confidence remains too low to delineate a potentially concentrated area of greatest risk, which would otherwise support high risk upgrade. As the situation evolves, a possible upgrade remains possible for the 20Z outlook update, given the larger-scale pattern/environment which continues to appear favorable for several significant tornadoes. ..Goss/Bentley.. 03/28/2020
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