NOAA SPC – Fire Weather

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NOAA – Storm Prediction Center – Feed For SPC Fire Weather Outlooks

  • Wed, 29 Jan 2020 03:42:20 -0700: SPC - No watches are valid as of Wed Jan 29 10:43:01 UTC 2020 - SPC Forecast Products
    No watches are valid as of Wed Jan 29 10:43:01 UTC 2020.
  • Wed, 29 Jan 2020 03:42:20 -0700: SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Wed Jan 29 10:43:01 UTC 2020 - SPC Forecast Products
    No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jan 29 10:43:01 UTC 2020.
  • Wed, 29 Jan 2020 02:56:59 -0700: SPC Jan 29, 2020 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
    Day 4-8 Outlook
    Day 4-8 Outlook Image
    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0351 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2020
    
    Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
    
    ...DISCUSSION...
    Day 4 (Saturday) - Thunderstorms will be in progress in advance of a
    cold front across South FL and in association with a progressive
    shortwave trough. While strong vertical shear will support some risk
    for organized severe storms, the marginal thermodynamic environment
    will probably remain a limiting factor. Any remaining severe threat
    should end during the afternoon as the cold front moves offshore.
    
    Days 5 (Sunday) - Offshore flow over the Gulf will contribute to
    stable conditions inland.
    
    Day 6 (Monday) - An upper low that will cutoff over northern Mexico
    Sunday will transition to an open wave and eject northeast through
    TX and the MS Valley region Monday in response to an upstream
    amplifying trough. However, considerable differences exist regarding
    how quickly this feature deamplifies as it ejects northeast. Some
    severe threat could evolve from east TX into the lower MS Valley as
    modifying Gulf moisture returns ahead of this impulse, especially if
    the stronger ECMWF solution verifies. However too much uncertainty
    exists at this time to introduce severe probabilities.
    
    Day 7 (Tuesday) - Model consensus is that a positive-tilt upper
    trough will move through the central and southern Plains and middle
    MS Valley region accompanied by a more robust return of moisture
    from the Gulf. A broad fetch of strong southwest winds aloft will
    overspread a moistening warm sector that will have the potential to
    become moderately unstable from east TX into the lower MS Valley. A
    severe risk will probably need to be introduced for a portion of
    this region (possibly as early as the next day 6 update) if models
    continue to demonstrate run-to-run consistency.
    
    
    Read more
  • Wed, 29 Jan 2020 01:19:49 -0700: SPC Jan 29, 2020 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
    SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
    Day 3 Outlook Image
    Day 3 Convective Outlook  
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0215 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2020
    
    Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
    
    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
    FLORIDA...
    
    ...SUMMARY...
    A few strong to severe storms will be possible over south Florida
    Friday night.
    
    ...South Florida...
    
    A southern-stream shortwave trough will deamplify as it moves from
    the northwestern Gulf early Friday into the Southeast States and
    Carolinas later in the day and into the evening. By Friday morning a
    stalled front will be situated just south of the FL Peninsula and
    into the Gulf. Only very weak cyclogenesis is expected over the Gulf
    during the day. The primary surface low and accompanying low-level
    jet will likely form farther east over the Gulf stream Friday night
    with the arrival of deeper forcing attending the progressive
    shortwave trough. As a result the warm front will only make limited
    northward progress into south FL. Weak destabilization (up to 500
    J/kg MLCAPE) is expected with the increase in dewpoints (mid to
    upper 60s F) accompanying the warm front. Thunderstorms are expected
    to spread into south FL Friday night as the atmosphere destabilizes
    within the evolving warm advection regime. While the strongest winds
    aloft and low-level jet accompanying the shortwave trough will
    remain north of the warm sector, effective bulk shear (40-50 kt)
    will be more than adequate for embedded organized storm structures.
    An anticipated marginal thermodynamic environment will likely serve
    as a limiting factor for a more robust severe threat.
    
    ..Dial.. 01/29/2020
    
    
    Read more
  • Wed, 29 Jan 2020 00:37:36 -0700: SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
    SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
    Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
    Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0133 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2020
    
    Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
    
    ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
    
    ...Synopsis...
    A mid-level trough will broaden, promoting widespread cyclonic
    mid-level flow to the central and southern CONUS Day 2/Thursday.
    High pressure and cool temperatures will dominate the surface
    pattern across much of the CONUS, especially the Inter-mountain
    West, where a pressure gradient will remain in place across southern
    California.
    
    A dry, offshore component of flow is expected to remain in place
    across southern California throughout the Day 2 period. Surface
    winds reaching 15-20 mph may be expected along with RH dipping below
    20%, particularly in terrain favoring locations. Similar to Day 1,
    the lack of more receptive fuels precludes an elevated delineation.
    
    ..Squitieri.. 01/29/2020
    
    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
    
    
    Read more
  • Wed, 29 Jan 2020 00:35:18 -0700: SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
    SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
    Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
    Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0132 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2020
    
    Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
    
    ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
    
    ...Synopsis...
    Dual mid-level shortwave troughs (and associated surface lows) will
    traverse the southeast and southwest CONUS, respectively, throughout
    the period. Cooler temperatures will prevail across the northern
    two-thirds of the CONUS, with mild temperatures likely across the
    southern CONUS. 
    
    While a favorable overlap of surface meteorological conditions and
    receptive fuels to support large wildfire growth appears unlikely, a
    few locations may support localized fire starts. The first area
    would be southern California into the Lower Colorado River Basin.
    Here, a mid-level jet will overlap a surface pressure gradient with
    associated strong northerly flow. During the afternoon, a well-mixed
    boundary layer will help transport the stronger flow aloft to the
    surface, and provide ample mixing to promote 20% RH. Northerly
    sustained surface winds may exceed 30 mph at times. Localized fire
    spreads are possible wherever the aforementioned surface conditions
    can coincide with receptive fine fuels.
    
    Elsewhere, 20% RH and southerly surface winds approaching 15 mph are
    possible by afternoon peak heating across portions of the Texas Big
    Bend area. However, the localized, brief nature of these conditions,
    combined with marginally receptive fine fuels, preclude an elevated
    delineation.
    
    ..Squitieri.. 01/29/2020
    
    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
    
    
    Read more
  • Tue, 28 Jan 2020 23:25:01 -0700: SPC Jan 29, 2020 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
    SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
    Day 2 Outlook Image
    Day 2 Convective Outlook  
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1220 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2020
    
    Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
    
    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
    
    ...SUMMARY...
    A few thunderstorms might occur across a portion of Texas Thursday,
    but severe weather is not expected.
    
    ...Southwest through central Texas...
    
    A shortwave trough now approaching the Great Basin region will move
    southeast, reaching northern Mexico and far west TX early Thursday
    before continuing east through the remainder of the State during the
    period. A preceding Gulf frontal intrusion with offshore flow will
    preclude any substantial moisture return. However, steep lapse rates
    and ascent attending the shortwave trough will result in at least
    weak MUCAPE (100-300 J/kg) with the base of the convective layer
    between 600 and 700 mb. A few showers and thunderstorms may spread
    from southwest through central TX during the day and into the
    evening. However, coverage will likely remain isolated due to
    limited moisture and instability.
    
    ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
    Tornado:  
    Read more

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Updated: March 12, 2011 — 12:32 pm

The Author

Rich Fleetwood

Rich is the founder of SurvivalRing, now in it's 20th year, author of multimedia CDs and DVDs, loves the outdoors, his family, his geeky skill-set, and lives in rural Missouri, just a few miles from the Big Muddy. Always ready to help others, he shares what he learns on multiple blogs, social sites, and more. With a background in preparedness and survival skills, training with county, state, and national organizations, and skills in all areas of media and on air experience in live radio and television, Rich is always thinking about the "big picture", when it comes to helping individuals and families prepare for life's little surprises.

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