NOAA SPC – Fire Weather

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NOAA – Storm Prediction Center – Feed For SPC Fire Weather Outlooks

  • Sat, 28 Mar 2020 14:42:03 -0600: SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 67 Status Reports - SPC Forecast Products
    WW 0067 Status Updates
    WW 0067 Status Image
    
    STATUS REPORT ON WW 67
    
    THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
    
    ..KERR..03/28/20
    
    ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...ILN...CLE...RLX...PBZ...
    
    
    STATUS REPORT FOR WS 67 
    
    SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 
    
    INC001-005-009-011-013-015-017-021-023-027-029-031-035-041-045-
    047-049-053-055-057-059-063-065-067-069-071-075-079-081-083-093-
    095-097-101-103-105-107-109-119-121-131-133-135-137-139-145-153-
    157-159-161-165-167-169-171-177-179-181-282140-
    
    IN 
    .    INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
    
    ADAMS                BARTHOLOMEW         BLACKFORD           
    BOONE                BROWN               CARROLL             
    CASS                 CLAY                CLINTON             
    DAVIESS              DEARBORN            DECATUR             
    DELAWARE             FAYETTE             FOUNTAIN            
    FRANKLIN             FULTON              GRANT               
    GREENE               HAMILTON            HANCOCK             
    HENDRICKS            HENRY               HOWARD              
    HUNTINGTON           JACKSON             JAY                 
    JENNINGS             JOHNSON             KNOX                
    LAWRENCE             MADISON             MARION              
    MARTIN               MIAMI               MONROE              
    MONTGOMERY           MORGAN              OWEN                
    PARKE                PULASKI             PUTNAM              
    RANDOLPH             RIPLEY              RUSH                
    SHELBY               SULLIVAN            TIPPECANOE          
    TIPTON               UNION               VERMILLION          
    VIGO                 WABASH              WARREN              
    
    Read more
  • Sat, 28 Mar 2020 14:42:03 -0600: SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 67 - SPC Forecast Products
    WW 67 SEVERE TSTM IN OH PA WV 281740Z - 290000Z
    WW 0067 Image
    
    URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
    Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 67
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    140 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020
    
    The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
    
    * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
      much of Indiana
      much of Ohio
      western Pennsylvania
      the northern West Virginia Panhandle
    
    * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 140 PM until
      800 PM EDT.
    
    * Primary threats include...
      Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
      Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible
      A tornado or two possible
    
    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to continue to increase in
    coverage across the Ohio Valley area this afternoon, with the
    stronger storms capable of producing locally damaging winds and
    large hail.
    
    The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
    statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles east of
    Pittsburgh PA to 15 miles north northwest of Terre Haute IN. For a
    complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
    update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
    
    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
    
    REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
    favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
    Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
    weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
    warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
    tornadoes.
    
    &&
    
    AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
    1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A
    few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
    27040.
    
    ...Goss
    
    
    Read more
  • Sat, 28 Mar 2020 14:42:02 -0600: SPC PDS Tornado Watch 69 - SPC Forecast Products
    WW 69 TORNADO IA IL MO 281940Z - 290200Z
    WW 0069 Image
    
    URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
    Tornado Watch Number 69
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    240 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020
    
    The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
    
    * Tornado Watch for portions of 
      parts of central and eastern Iowa
      portions of central and northern Illinois
      northeastern Missouri
    
    * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 240 PM until
      900 PM CDT.
    
    ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
    
    * Primary threats include...
      Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely
      Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
        inches in diameter likely
      Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
    
    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forecast to gradually increase in both
    coverage and intensity over the next few hours, with several intense
    supercell storms expected to evolve.  Along with risk for damaging
    winds and very large hail, several tornadoes -- including the
    potential for a few being significant/long-track -- can be expected.
    
    The tornado watch area is approximately along and 110 statute miles
    either side of a line from 35 miles north northwest of Cedar Rapids
    IA to 70 miles south southeast of Quincy IL. For a complete
    depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
    (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
    
    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
    
    REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
    tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
    area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
    threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
    and possible warnings.
    
    &&
    
    OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 67...WW 68...
    
    AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
    surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
    gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
    storm motion vector 22040.
    
    ...Goss
    
    
    Read more
  • Sat, 28 Mar 2020 14:42:02 -0600: SPC Tornado Watch 69 Status Reports - SPC Forecast Products
    WW 0069 Status Updates
    WW 0069 Status Image
    
    STATUS REPORT ON WW 69
    
    THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
    
    ..KERR..03/28/20
    
    ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...LSX...ILX...LOT...EAX...
    
    
    STATUS REPORT FOR WT 69 
    
    SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 
    
    ILC001-009-011-013-017-019-021-029-039-041-045-053-057-061-067-
    071-073-075-083-095-099-103-105-107-109-113-115-117-123-125-129-
    131-135-137-139-143-147-149-155-161-167-169-171-173-175-179-183-
    187-195-203-282140-
    
    IL 
    .    ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
    
    ADAMS                BROWN               BUREAU              
    CALHOUN              CASS                CHAMPAIGN           
    CHRISTIAN            COLES               DE WITT             
    DOUGLAS              EDGAR               FORD                
    FULTON               GREENE              HANCOCK             
    HENDERSON            HENRY               IROQUOIS            
    JERSEY               KNOX                LA SALLE            
    LEE                  LIVINGSTON          LOGAN               
    MCDONOUGH            MCLEAN              MACON               
    MACOUPIN             MARSHALL            MASON               
    MENARD               MERCER              MONTGOMERY          
    MORGAN               MOULTRIE            PEORIA              
    PIATT                PIKE                PUTNAM              
    ROCK ISLAND          SANGAMON            SCHUYLER            
    SCOTT                SHELBY              STARK               
    TAZEWELL             VERMILION           WARREN              
    WHITESIDE            WOODFORD            
    
    
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  • Sat, 28 Mar 2020 14:39:02 -0600: SPC Tornado Watch 68 Status Reports - SPC Forecast Products
    WW 0068 Status Updates
    WW 0068 Status Image
    
    STATUS REPORT ON WW 68
    
    SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW ELD
    TO 40 SSE HOT TO 20 WSW LIT TO 35 NNW LIT TO 25 W BVX TO 30 E FLP
    TO 30 NE UNO.
    
    FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0252
    
    ..BENTLEY..03/28/20
    
    ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...
    
    
    STATUS REPORT FOR WT 68 
    
    SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 
    
    ARC001-011-013-021-023-025-031-035-037-039-041-043-045-049-053-
    055-063-065-067-069-075-077-079-085-093-095-103-107-111-117-119-
    121-123-125-135-137-145-147-282140-
    
    AR 
    .    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
    
    ARKANSAS             BRADLEY             CALHOUN             
    CLAY                 CLEBURNE            CLEVELAND           
    CRAIGHEAD            CRITTENDEN          CROSS               
    DALLAS               DESHA               DREW                
    FAULKNER             FULTON              GRANT               
    GREENE               INDEPENDENCE        IZARD               
    JACKSON              JEFFERSON           LAWRENCE            
    LEE                  LINCOLN             LONOKE              
    MISSISSIPPI          MONROE              OUACHITA            
    PHILLIPS             POINSETT            PRAIRIE             
    PULASKI              RANDOLPH            ST. FRANCIS         
    SALINE               SHARP               STONE               
    WHITE                WOODRUFF            
    
    
    
    Read more
  • Sat, 28 Mar 2020 14:39:02 -0600: SPC Tornado Watch 68 - SPC Forecast Products
    WW 68 TORNADO AR MO 281910Z - 290000Z
    WW 0068 Image
    
    URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
    Tornado Watch Number 68
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    210 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020
    
    The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
    
    * Tornado Watch for portions of 
      central and eastern Arkansas
      the Bootheel of Missouri
    
    * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 210 PM until
      700 PM CDT.
    
    * Primary threats include...
      A couple tornadoes possible
      Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
      Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
    
    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forecast to increase gradually in
    coverage and intensity over the next few hours across Arkansas, as a
    cold front crosses the region.  Risk for damaging winds and hail can
    be expected, along with a couple of tornadoes.
    
    The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
    east and west of a line from 25 miles northwest of Walnut Ridge AR
    to 50 miles west southwest of Monticello AR. For a complete
    depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
    (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
    
    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
    
    REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
    tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
    area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
    threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
    and possible warnings.
    
    &&
    
    OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 67...
    
    AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
    surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
    gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
    storm motion vector 24035.
    
    ...Goss
    
    
    Read more
  • Sat, 28 Mar 2020 14:37:18 -0600: SPC Center Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO) - SPC Forecast Products
    Public Severe Weather Outlook
    PWO Image
    PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    0336 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2020
    
    ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Midwest this
    afternoon and tonight...
    
    * LOCATIONS...
      Much of Illinois
      Central and eastern Iowa
      Western and central Indiana
      Northeastern Missouri
    
    * HAZARDS...
      Several tornadoes, a few intense
      Scattered large hail, some baseball size
      Scattered damaging winds
    
    * SUMMARY...
      A severe-weather outbreak is expected for portions of the
      Midwest this afternoon and evening. A few long-tracked,
      significant tornadoes are possible, along with large, damaging
      hail and severe gusts.
    
    Preparedness actions...
    
    Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
    of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, 
    weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado
    watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form
    during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for
    your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or
    interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.
    
    &&
    
    ..Gleason.. 03/28/2020
    
    Read more
  • Sat, 28 Mar 2020 14:13:36 -0600: SPC Mar 28, 2020 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
    SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
    Day 1 Outlook Image
    Day 1 Convective Outlook  
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0306 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020
    
    Valid 282000Z - 291200Z
    
    ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
    NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL AND FAR EASTERN IA...
    
    ...SUMMARY...
    A severe-weather outbreak is expected for portions of the Midwest
    this afternoon and evening.  A few long-tracked, significant
    tornadoes are possible, along with large, damaging hail and severe
    gusts.
    
    ...20Z Update...
    Numerous showers and thunderstorms earlier this morning and early
    afternoon have hampered substantial destabilization across parts of
    IL and eastern IA so far today. Even so, instability is still
    forecast to gradually increase through the remainder of the
    afternoon into this evening as modest diurnal heating occurs in
    tandem with moistening low levels and cooling mid-level temperatures
    with the approach of the upper trough. Shear profiles will be quite
    favorable for supercells, and the potential for both tornadoes and
    large hail remains evident. However, there is concern that
    instability may not reach levels previously forecast due to the
    persistent cloud cover and earlier/ongoing precipitation.
    Regardless, will maintain the Moderate Risk area across parts of
    northern/central IL and far eastern IA with no changes given the
    very strong shear profiles and developing convection across portions
    of MO and southern/central IA.
    
    A 30% wind area has been introduced for parts of the mid MS Valley
    and Mid-South into IN. Convection gradually increasing in intensity
    across AR along the cold front will shift northeastward across this
    region through the afternoon and evening as low-level flow
    strengthens. A linear mode will likely dominate with damaging winds
    the main threat, but embedded supercells and QLCS mesovorticies with
    some tornado potential also appear possible. Accordingly, the
    Enhanced Risk has been expanded southward/eastward to account for
    this potential.
    
    A modest expansion of the Marginal and Slight Risk areas has been
    made from parts of the Southeast into the TN Valley and lower OH
    Valley to account for bands of convection capable of producing
    isolated damaging winds and perhaps a couple tornadoes late this
    evening into the overnight hours. Instability should slowly wane
    towards the end of the period, and a gradual reduction is storm
    intensity should occur with eastward extent.
    
    The Marginal and Slight Risk areas have been expanded a little
    eastward into parts of western PA and vicinity to account for
    ongoing strong to severe convection capable of mainly large hail and
    damaging winds. This activity should weaken with eastward extent
    into central PA where instability is much more limited.
    
    Finally, severe probabilities have been reduced across parts of TX
    and AR behind an eastward-moving cold front/dryline.
    
    ..Gleason.. 03/28/2020
    
    .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020/
    
    ...Synopsis...
    A deepening mid-/upper-level low -- now moving east-northeastward
    across Nebraska/Kansas -- will advance to western Iowa by early
    evening, and will be accompanied by an 80 to 100 kt southwesterly
    mid-level jet.  The jet streak will cross the Ozarks and lower
    Missouri/mid Mississippi Valleys this afternoon, and then into the
    Ohio and Tennessee Valleys overnight, atop lower-level southerlies
    in the 40 to 60 kt range.  This veering/increasing of flow with
    height will yield a very favorably-sheared environment over a broad
    area.
    
    At the surface, a deepening low is analyzed over northeastern
    Kansas, and will move northeastward across the mid Missouri Valley
    this afternoon, and then across Iowa this evening and into Wisconsin
    overnight.  A trailing cold front is currently crossing eastern
    Kansas/eastern Oklahoma and eastern/southeastern Texas, and will
    reach the mid and lower Mississippi Valley vicinity by early
    evening.  A warm front currently extends eastward from the low
    across northern Missouri into central Illinois/central Indiana, and
    will lift northward with time across northern Missouri, Iowa,
    Illinois, and Indiana as the parent low moves northeastward,
    allowing warm/moist/destabilizing air to spread across these areas
    through early evening.  By the end of the period, the low will have
    occluded over Wisconsin, with the cold front approaching the west
    slopes of the Appalachians and the warm front extending
    east-southeastward from the Great lakes region to the mid-Atlantic
    area.
    
    ...Mid Mississippi Valley/Midwest region...
    A significant outbreak of severe weather remains apparent from parts
    of eastern Iowa and eastern Missouri, eastward into the Midwest/Ohio
    Valley.  
    
    Widespread clouds, and ongoing showers/thunderstorms, persist across
    much of the risk area at this time -- along and ahead of the cold
    front from southern Missouri to eastern Texas and near/north of the
    warm front from Iowa eastward to Pennsylvania -- which continues to
    complicate the forecast in terms of finer-scale details.  Generally,
    severe risk across the region is expected to occur within two
    regimes:
    
    1.  A gradual increase in coverage/intensity of the ongoing storms
    near the cold and warm fronts, as modest, local
    heating/destabilization combine with a steady increase in the flow
    field aloft, and
    
    2.  New storm development -- initially expected from northeastern
    Missouri into southeastern Iowa in the 19 to 21z time frame -- as
    ongoing convection and cloud cover shifts eastward/northeastward
    allowing surface heating/desabilization to occur beneath steepening
    mid-level lapse rates and increasingly strong flow aloft.  
    
    Broadly speaking, storms increasing from Arkansas and southeastern
    Missouri, and eastward across Illinois and Indiana will continue to
    pose an initial risk for hail and possibly locally strong wind
    gusts.  With time, as both the kinematic and thermodynamic
    environment improve, more intense/rotating storms will gradually
    evolve, posing greater severe potential.  Greatest tornado risk will
    likely occur with northward extent, nearer the warm front, though
    some potential will expand across areas as far south as parts of
    Tennessee and northern Mississippi this evening as severe storms
    spread eastward.
    
    Greatest risk for long-track/significant tornadoes, along with
    potential for very large/destructive hail and damaging wind gusts,
    still appears to exist from portions of northeastern Missouri and
    arcing northwestward into Iowa, and then eastward across Illinois
    and into Indiana.  This risk will largely exist with new/intense
    storm development this afternoon in the wake of the initial
    convection -- but also potentially evolving with a few intensifying
    storms within the initial/ongoing band of convection -- along/near
    the warm front into Indiana.  As the storms intensify rapidly this
    afternoon in response to the rapidly evolving environment, expect
    peak tornado risk to occur through late afternoon and into early
    evening, spreading from eastern Iowa/northeast Missouri across the
    remainder of the MDT and ENH risk areas.  Given existing
    uncertainties due to ongoing precipitation/cloud cover, and
    anticipated/rapid changes in the environment as the warm front lifts
    northward and clouds thin/clear from the west, confidence remains
    too low to delineate a potentially concentrated area of greatest
    risk, which would otherwise support high risk upgrade.  As the
    situation evolves, a possible upgrade remains possible for the 20Z
    outlook update, given the larger-scale pattern/environment which
    continues to appear favorable for several significant tornadoes.
    
    
    Read more
  • Sat, 28 Mar 2020 14:04:03 -0600: SPC MD 253 - SPC Forecast Products
    MD 0253 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 67... FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AND OHIO INTO SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
    MD 0253 Image
    
    Mesoscale Discussion 0253
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0303 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020
    
    Areas affected...Parts of central Indiana and Ohio into southwestern
    Pennsylvania
    
    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 67...
    
    Valid 282003Z - 282130Z
    
    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 67
    continues.
    
    SUMMARY...Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm activity
    may persist near/north of the Interstate 70 corridor another couple
    of hours, before diminishing by 6-8 PM EDT.
    
    DISCUSSION...Frontolysis appears underway, from west to east, along
    the Interstate 70 corridor, with the primary surface frontal zone
    redeveloping northward into southern portions of the Great Lakes
    region through early evening.  However, scattered vigorous
    thunderstorm development persists, probably aided by inflow of
    unstable boundary layer air characterized by CAPE in excess of 1000
    J/kg.  
    
    Given the increasingly widespread nature to the convection, and
    general stabilization of the surrounding boundary layer due to rain
    cooling and decreasing insolation, convective intensities seem
    likely to trend downward through 6-8 PM EDT.  However, until then,
    widely scattered strong storms, perhaps including a small evolving
    cluster approaching northern portions of the Indianapolis metro
    area, may continue to pose a risk for severe hail and locally strong
    surface gusts.
    
    ..Kerr.. 03/28/2020
    
    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
    
    ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...
    
    LAT...LON   40178722 40558601 40888394 40908150 41148034 40927960
                40417920 39778032 39728200 39728370 39608522 39658692
                40178722 
    
    
    Read more
  • Sat, 28 Mar 2020 13:57:02 -0600: SPC MD 252 - SPC Forecast Products
    MD 0252 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 68... FOR EASTERN ARKANSAS
    MD 0252 Image
    
    Mesoscale Discussion 0252
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0256 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020
    
    Areas affected...Eastern Arkansas
    
    Concerning...Tornado Watch 68...
    
    Valid 281956Z - 282130Z
    
    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 68 continues.
    
    SUMMARY...The severe weather threat continues in tornado watch 68
    with a main threat of damaging winds and a few tornadoes.
    
    DISCUSSION...Storm coverage has increased along a cold front in
    central Arkansas, but storm intensity has remained mostly limited.
    The 19Z LZK sounding shows very weak mid-level lapse rates (~6 C/km)
    and MLCAPE less than 1000 J/kg. In addition, winds below 1km are
    less than 20 knots while effective shear is 80 knots beneath a 90 kt
    500mb jet streak. This meager thermodynamic profile combined with a
    highly sheared environment likely explains the lack of robust
    updraft growth across central Arkansas despite adequate forcing for
    pre-frontal development as parcel acceleration is not great enough
    to balance the strong shear. Some brief QLCS tornadoes will be
    possible, especially in northern Arkansas later this afternoon and
    this evening as the low-level jet strengthens, but otherwise, wind
    damage along the line will likely be the primary threat. Even the
    wind damage will likely remain isolated, especially in the southern
    half of the watch, given the weak low-level flow.
    
    ..Bentley.. 03/28/2020
    
    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
    
    ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
    
    LAT...LON   33439335 34719289 35569273 36189238 36419157 36459054
                36478990 36288951 34759042 33409138 33389247 33439335 
    
    
    Read more
  • Sat, 28 Mar 2020 12:57:27 -0600: SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
    SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
    Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
    Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0155 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020
    
    Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
    
    The elevated area was expanded southeastward into portions of the
    Lower Pecos River Valley/eastern portions of the Trans-Pecos.
    Low-level return flow will begin to strengthen tomorrow
    afternoon/evening across this area in response to the approaching
    upper-level shortwave trough amid a dry airmass. Elevated conditions
    may also develop across western portions of the Trans-Pecos, but
    confined the expansion to where the strongest low-level jet/return
    flow response will likely occur.
    
    ..Nauslar.. 03/28/2020
    
    .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0257 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020/
    
    ...Synopsis...
    A low-amplitude upper trough is forecast to move from the Southwest
    into the southern Rockies by Sunday night. A weak surface low may
    begin to develop across portions of NM in response to this feature.
    Another day of elevated fire-weather conditions is expected over
    portions of NM and adjacent west TX, though the critical threat
    appears diminished compared to previous days. 
    
    ...New Mexico and adjacent west TX...
    While winds should generally diminish across much of the southern
    Rockies/Plains compared to previous days, relatively dry and breezy
    conditions will persist across much of NM into adjacent portions of
    west TX. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph combined with minimum RH
    values of 10-20% will result in elevated fire-weather conditions for
    several hours on Sunday afternoon.
    
    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
    
    
    Read more
  • Sat, 28 Mar 2020 11:35:00 -0600: SPC Mar 28, 2020 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
    SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
    Day 2 Outlook Image
    Day 2 Convective Outlook  
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1230 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020
    
    Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
    
    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
    THE UPPER OH VALLEY...LOWER GREAT LAKES...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND
    MID-ATLANTIC...
    
    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Sunday
    across parts of the upper Ohio Valley, lower Great Lakes, central
    Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic.
    
    ...Upper Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes and Central
    Appalachians...
    A strong, closed upper low will migrate east-northeastward from the
    Upper Midwest across the Great Lakes Sunday, eventually reaching
    southern Ontario/Quebec by the end of the period. A belt of 70-90+
    kt mid-level southwesterly flow will overspread much of the upper OH
    Valley, lower Great Lakes, and central Appalachians by Sunday
    afternoon. At the surface, a low will also develop over the same
    regions while gradually occluding. A surface warm front will likely
    make only modest northward progress across western/central PA
    through the day.
    
    A low-topped convective line along or just ahead of an
    eastward-moving cold front should be ongoing at the start of the
    period Sunday morning roughly from Lake Erie southward across OH and
    into parts of eastern KY. Although instability across these areas
    will likely remain limited due to modest low-level moisture (mid 50s
    to lower 60s surface dewpoints), there will be very strong low to
    mid-level shear present. This will support the potential for
    continued storm organization as they move quickly east-northeastward
    through the morning and early afternoon. Strong to locally damaging
    winds appear to be the main threat given the very strong flow
    expected in the boundary layer, but a tornado cannot be ruled out
    mainly Sunday morning across parts of eastern OH into WV and western
    PA. Storms will likely weaken as they reach the crest of the
    Appalachians by Sunday afternoon.
    
    ...Mid-Atlantic...
    Large-scale ascent is forecast to remain fairly weak Sunday across
    the Mid-Atlantic. However, some modest mid-level height falls should
    overspread this region by Sunday afternoon. Latest model guidance
    also suggests the possibility of a weak, secondary surface low
    developing over MD and vicinity through the day. More robust diurnal
    heating is expected across this region, and weak to potentially
    moderate instability (MLCAPE 500-1500 J/kg) should develop
    along/south of a surface warm front that will likely be located
    across parts of central/eastern PA into southern/central NJ.
    Effective bulk shear of 50-70+ kt would easily support supercells,
    with all severe hazards possible. The main uncertainty is whether
    any storms will form along/ahead of the cold front. Latest guidance
    shows substantial variability regarding overall convective coverage
    across this region. For now, have opted to expand the Marginal Risk
    eastward across much of the Mid-Atlantic to account for this
    somewhat conditional potential.
    
    ...North Carolina...
    The possibility of surface-based storm development even farther
    south into NC appears very questionable/uncertain, since large-scale
    ascent will likely be very weak. Forecast instability/shear
    parameters would conditionally support a severe threat with any
    storms that form along/ahead of the cold front. But, the potential
    for convective development Sunday afternoon remains too low to
    extend marginal hail/wind probabilities into NC at this time.
    
    ...Tennessee/Alabama/Georgia...
    A shallow, broken line of storms will likely be ongoing Sunday
    morning along the cold front. These storms should weaken through the
    morning as large-scale ascent remains focused farther north. 
    Accordingly, this region does not appear to warrant low severe
    probabilities for wind.
    
    ..Gleason.. 03/28/2020
    
    
    Read more
  • Sat, 28 Mar 2020 10:44:19 -0600: SPC Mar 28, 2020 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
    SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
    Day 1 Outlook Image
    Day 1 Convective Outlook  
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1138 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020
    
    Valid 281630Z - 291200Z
    
    ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
    OF FAR EASTERN IOWA AND INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
    ILLINOIS...
    
    ...SUMMARY...
    A severe-weather outbreak is expected for portions of the Midwest
    this afternoon and evening.  A few long-tracked, significant
    tornadoes are possible, along with large, damaging hail and severe
    gusts.
    
    ...Synopsis...
    A deepening mid-/upper-level low -- now moving east-northeastward
    across Nebraska/Kansas -- will advance to western Iowa by early
    evening, and will be accompanied by an 80 to 100 kt southwesterly
    mid-level jet.  The jet streak will cross the Ozarks and lower
    Missouri/mid Mississippi Valleys this afternoon, and then into the
    Ohio and Tennessee Valleys overnight, atop lower-level southerlies
    in the 40 to 60 kt range.  This veering/increasing of flow with
    height will yield a very favorably-sheared environment over a broad
    area.
    
    At the surface, a deepening low is analyzed over northeastern
    Kansas, and will move northeastward across the mid Missouri Valley
    this afternoon, and then across Iowa this evening and into Wisconsin
    overnight.  A trailing cold front is currently crossing eastern
    Kansas/eastern Oklahoma and eastern/southeastern Texas, and will
    reach the mid and lower Mississippi Valley vicinity by early
    evening.  A warm front currently extends eastward from the low
    across northern Missouri into central Illinois/central Indiana, and
    will lift northward with time across northern Missouri, Iowa,
    Illinois, and Indiana as the parent low moves northeastward,
    allowing warm/moist/destabilizing air to spread across these areas
    through early evening.  By the end of the period, the low will have
    occluded over Wisconsin, with the cold front approaching the west
    slopes of the Appalachians and the warm front extending
    east-southeastward from the Great lakes region to the mid-Atlantic
    area.
    
    ...Mid Mississippi Valley/Midwest region...
    A significant outbreak of severe weather remains apparent from parts
    of eastern Iowa and eastern Missouri, eastward into the Midwest/Ohio
    Valley.  
    
    Widespread clouds, and ongoing showers/thunderstorms, persist across
    much of the risk area at this time -- along and ahead of the cold
    front from southern Missouri to eastern Texas and near/north of the
    warm front from Iowa eastward to Pennsylvania -- which continues to
    complicate the forecast in terms of finer-scale details.  Generally,
    severe risk across the region is expected to occur within two
    regimes:
    
    1.  A gradual increase in coverage/intensity of the ongoing storms
    near the cold and warm fronts, as modest, local
    heating/destabilization combine with a steady increase in the flow
    field aloft, and
    
    2.  New storm development -- initially expected from northeastern
    Missouri into southeastern Iowa in the 19 to 21z time frame -- as
    ongoing convection and cloud cover shifts eastward/northeastward
    allowing surface heating/desabilization to occur beneath steepening
    mid-level lapse rates and increasingly strong flow aloft.  
    
    Broadly speaking, storms increasing from Arkansas and southeastern
    Missouri, and eastward across Illinois and Indiana will continue to
    pose an initial risk for hail and possibly locally strong wind
    gusts.  With time, as both the kinematic and thermodynamic
    environment improve, more intense/rotating storms will gradually
    evolve, posing greater severe potential.  Greatest tornado risk will
    likely occur with northward extent, nearer the warm front, though
    some potential will expand across areas as far south as parts of
    Tennessee and northern Mississippi this evening as severe storms
    spread eastward.
    
    Greatest risk for long-track/significant tornadoes, along with
    potential for very large/destructive hail and damaging wind gusts,
    still appears to exist from portions of northeastern Missouri and
    arcing northwestward into Iowa, and then eastward across Illinois
    and into Indiana.  This risk will largely exist with new/intense
    storm development this afternoon in the wake of the initial
    convection -- but also potentially evolving with a few intensifying
    storms within the initial/ongoing band of convection -- along/near
    the warm front into Indiana.  As the storms intensify rapidly this
    afternoon in response to the rapidly evolving environment, expect
    peak tornado risk to occur through late afternoon and into early
    evening, spreading from eastern Iowa/northeast Missouri across the
    remainder of the MDT and ENH risk areas.  Given existing
    uncertainties due to ongoing precipitation/cloud cover, and
    anticipated/rapid changes in the environment as the warm front lifts
    northward and clouds thin/clear from the west, confidence remains
    too low to delineate a potentially concentrated area of greatest
    risk, which would otherwise support high risk upgrade.  As the
    situation evolves, a possible upgrade remains possible for the 20Z
    outlook update, given the larger-scale pattern/environment which
    continues to appear favorable for several significant tornadoes.
    
    ..Goss/Bentley.. 03/28/2020
    
    
    Read more

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Updated: March 12, 2011 — 12:32 pm

The Author

Rich Fleetwood

Rich is the founder of SurvivalRing, now in it's 20th year, author of multimedia CDs and DVDs, loves the outdoors, his family, his geeky skill-set, and lives in rural Missouri, just a few miles from the Big Muddy. Always ready to help others, he shares what he learns on multiple blogs, social sites, and more. With a background in preparedness and survival skills, training with county, state, and national organizations, and skills in all areas of media and on air experience in live radio and television, Rich is always thinking about the "big picture", when it comes to helping individuals and families prepare for life's little surprises.

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