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NOAA – Storm Prediction Center – Feed For SPC Fire Weather Outlooks
- Wed, 29 Jan 2020 03:42:20 -0700: SPC - No watches are valid as of Wed Jan 29 10:43:01 UTC 2020 - SPC Forecast Products
No watches are valid as of Wed Jan 29 10:43:01 UTC 2020. - Wed, 29 Jan 2020 03:42:20 -0700: SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Wed Jan 29 10:43:01 UTC 2020 - SPC Forecast Products
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jan 29 10:43:01 UTC 2020. - Wed, 29 Jan 2020 02:56:59 -0700: SPC Jan 29, 2020 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2020 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... Day 4 (Saturday) - Thunderstorms will be in progress in advance of a cold front across South FL and in association with a progressive shortwave trough. While strong vertical shear will support some risk for organized severe storms, the marginal thermodynamic environment will probably remain a limiting factor. Any remaining severe threat should end during the afternoon as the cold front moves offshore. Days 5 (Sunday) - Offshore flow over the Gulf will contribute to stable conditions inland. Day 6 (Monday) - An upper low that will cutoff over northern Mexico Sunday will transition to an open wave and eject northeast through TX and the MS Valley region Monday in response to an upstream amplifying trough. However, considerable differences exist regarding how quickly this feature deamplifies as it ejects northeast. Some severe threat could evolve from east TX into the lower MS Valley as modifying Gulf moisture returns ahead of this impulse, especially if the stronger ECMWF solution verifies. However too much uncertainty exists at this time to introduce severe probabilities. Day 7 (Tuesday) - Model consensus is that a positive-tilt upper trough will move through the central and southern Plains and middle MS Valley region accompanied by a more robust return of moisture from the Gulf. A broad fetch of strong southwest winds aloft will overspread a moistening warm sector that will have the potential to become moderately unstable from east TX into the lower MS Valley. A severe risk will probably need to be introduced for a portion of this region (possibly as early as the next day 6 update) if models continue to demonstrate run-to-run consistency.
Read more - Wed, 29 Jan 2020 01:19:49 -0700: SPC Jan 29, 2020 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2020 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe storms will be possible over south Florida Friday night. ...South Florida... A southern-stream shortwave trough will deamplify as it moves from the northwestern Gulf early Friday into the Southeast States and Carolinas later in the day and into the evening. By Friday morning a stalled front will be situated just south of the FL Peninsula and into the Gulf. Only very weak cyclogenesis is expected over the Gulf during the day. The primary surface low and accompanying low-level jet will likely form farther east over the Gulf stream Friday night with the arrival of deeper forcing attending the progressive shortwave trough. As a result the warm front will only make limited northward progress into south FL. Weak destabilization (up to 500 J/kg MLCAPE) is expected with the increase in dewpoints (mid to upper 60s F) accompanying the warm front. Thunderstorms are expected to spread into south FL Friday night as the atmosphere destabilizes within the evolving warm advection regime. While the strongest winds aloft and low-level jet accompanying the shortwave trough will remain north of the warm sector, effective bulk shear (40-50 kt) will be more than adequate for embedded organized storm structures. An anticipated marginal thermodynamic environment will likely serve as a limiting factor for a more robust severe threat. ..Dial.. 01/29/2020
Read more - Wed, 29 Jan 2020 00:37:36 -0700: SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2020 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will broaden, promoting widespread cyclonic mid-level flow to the central and southern CONUS Day 2/Thursday. High pressure and cool temperatures will dominate the surface pattern across much of the CONUS, especially the Inter-mountain West, where a pressure gradient will remain in place across southern California. A dry, offshore component of flow is expected to remain in place across southern California throughout the Day 2 period. Surface winds reaching 15-20 mph may be expected along with RH dipping below 20%, particularly in terrain favoring locations. Similar to Day 1, the lack of more receptive fuels precludes an elevated delineation. ..Squitieri.. 01/29/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more - Wed, 29 Jan 2020 00:35:18 -0700: SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2020 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Dual mid-level shortwave troughs (and associated surface lows) will traverse the southeast and southwest CONUS, respectively, throughout the period. Cooler temperatures will prevail across the northern two-thirds of the CONUS, with mild temperatures likely across the southern CONUS. While a favorable overlap of surface meteorological conditions and receptive fuels to support large wildfire growth appears unlikely, a few locations may support localized fire starts. The first area would be southern California into the Lower Colorado River Basin. Here, a mid-level jet will overlap a surface pressure gradient with associated strong northerly flow. During the afternoon, a well-mixed boundary layer will help transport the stronger flow aloft to the surface, and provide ample mixing to promote 20% RH. Northerly sustained surface winds may exceed 30 mph at times. Localized fire spreads are possible wherever the aforementioned surface conditions can coincide with receptive fine fuels. Elsewhere, 20% RH and southerly surface winds approaching 15 mph are possible by afternoon peak heating across portions of the Texas Big Bend area. However, the localized, brief nature of these conditions, combined with marginally receptive fine fuels, preclude an elevated delineation. ..Squitieri.. 01/29/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more - Tue, 28 Jan 2020 23:25:01 -0700: SPC Jan 29, 2020 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2020 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms might occur across a portion of Texas Thursday, but severe weather is not expected. ...Southwest through central Texas... A shortwave trough now approaching the Great Basin region will move southeast, reaching northern Mexico and far west TX early Thursday before continuing east through the remainder of the State during the period. A preceding Gulf frontal intrusion with offshore flow will preclude any substantial moisture return. However, steep lapse rates and ascent attending the shortwave trough will result in at least weak MUCAPE (100-300 J/kg) with the base of the convective layer between 600 and 700 mb. A few showers and thunderstorms may spread from southwest through central TX during the day and into the evening. However, coverage will likely remain isolated due to limited moisture and instability. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: Read more
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