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NOAA – Storm Prediction Center – Feed For SPC Fire Weather Outlooks
- Tue, 18 Jun 2019 14:39:03 -0600: SPC MD 1121 - SPC Forecast Products
MD 1121 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1121 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019 Areas affected...North central Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 182029Z - 182130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Storms are developing along a confluence zone in north central Oklahoma. A watch may be needed. DISCUSSION...An area of towering cumulus extends along the I-35 corridor from the Kansas border to just north of Oklahoma City. Storms have started to develop in Grant and Garfield counties with signs in visible satellite imagery that additional storm development may occur farther south along the line. Do not expect any development south of I-40/I-44 given the weaker low-level confluence with southern extent. A modified 18Z LMN sounding shows MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg and effective shear around 25 knots. This would support some storm organization with a combination of multicell and isolated supercell storm mode. Areas north of the OK/KS border are covered by tornado watch 395, but a small severe thunderstorm watch may be needed to cover the severe threat from these storms. ..Bentley/Guyer.. 06/18/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... LAT...LON 36929822 36989782 36979714 36939678 36979571 36369590 35879631 35609688 35509728 35449768 36109801 36549814 36929822Read more - Tue, 18 Jun 2019 14:38:04 -0600: SPC Tornado Watch 395 Status Reports - SPC Forecast Products
WW 0395 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 395 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE GCK TO 30 WSW RSL TO 20 E RSL TO 20 NW SLN TO 30 ENE CNK. ..BENTLEY..06/18/19 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...TOP... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 395 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-015-017-019-025-031-033-035-041-047-049-057-061-073- 077-079-083-095-097-111-113-115-127-139-145-149-151-155-159-161- 169-173-185-191-197-182140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON BUTLER CHASE CHAUTAUQUA CLARK COFFEY COMANCHE COWLEY DICKINSON EDWARDS ELK FORD GEARY GREENWOOD HARPER HARVEY HODGEMAN KINGMAN KIOWA LYON MCPHERSON MARION MORRIS OSAGE PAWNEE POTTAWATOMIE PRATT RENO RICE RILEY SALINE SEDGWICK STAFFORD SUMNER WABAUNSEE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more - Tue, 18 Jun 2019 14:38:04 -0600: SPC Tornado Watch 395 - SPC Forecast Products
WW 395 TORNADO KS 181920Z - 190300ZURGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 395 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 220 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of South-central and Eastern Kansas * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 220 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms including supercells are expected to continue to develop initially across south-central/east-central/northeast Kansas this afternoon, with organization aided by a moderately strong belt of winds in the low/mid-levels. A few tornadoes are possible, if not likely, across the region through the afternoon/early evening. Storms may eventually cluster and progress more southeastward this evening toward/east of the I-35/I-135 corridors with a continued severe risk. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles east of Emporia KS to 10 miles north of Dodge City KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 394... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27020. ...Guyer
Read more - Tue, 18 Jun 2019 14:35:06 -0600: SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 396 Status Reports - SPC Forecast Products
WW 0396 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0396 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more - Tue, 18 Jun 2019 14:35:03 -0600: SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 396 - SPC Forecast Products
WW 396 SEVERE TSTM CO NM OK TX 182035Z - 190400ZURGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 396 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 235 PM MDT Tue Jun 18 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Colorado Northeast New Mexico Oklahoma Panhandle Texas Panhandle * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 235 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop and intensify and otherwise move generally southeastward across the region through evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles northwest of Trinidad CO to 40 miles south southeast of Elkhart KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 394...WW 395... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 30025. ...GuyerRead more - Tue, 18 Jun 2019 14:06:58 -0600: SPC Jun 18, 2019 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TX INTO KS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the central and southern Great Plains in multiple rounds this afternoon through tonight. Other severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-Atlantic region and parts of the Southeast. ...20z Update... Remnants of long-lived MCS are progressing along the I-70 corridor across KS. Leading edge of this activity is beginning to intensify over northeast KS which may propagate a bit farther downstream than earlier anticipated. Will expand higher severe probs across portions of TOP CWA to account for these trends. Strong boundary-layer heating across the High Plains has contributed to near-dry adiabatic low-level lapse rates from southeast CO into west TX. Convection will gradually expand in areal coverage along this corridor over the next few hours before spreading into the ENH Risk region. ..Darrow.. 06/18/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1152 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019/ ...Kansas... An MCV will continue to drift generally eastward across western/central Kansas through the afternoon and evening. A trend of thinning/increasingly scattered cloud cover should occur through the afternoon, aided by a modest MCV-peripheral dry slot. Expectations are for more of a southeasterly low-level wind component to materialize across central Kansas by mid/late afternoon, while enhanced mid-level winds otherwise spread eastward across the southern half of Kansas. Thunderstorms should initially intensify across central/south-central Kansas by mid-afternoon, with moderate buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear/modest overall forcing likely being conducive for semi-discrete supercells, at least for a few hours duration. A few tornadoes will be possible aside from severe hail/wind as storms spread east-southeastward toward and across the I-35/I-135 corridor through late afternoon and early/mid-evening. ...Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle to west/southwest Texas... Timing of the peak/most-certain severe risk is a bit questionable across parts of this region, but the potential exists for a sub-regional corridor to be impacted by multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms. At the very least, a conditional severe/supercell risk will exist as early as mid/late afternoon across the Texas Panhandle/Low Rolling Plains and western Oklahoma within a very unstable environment. However, modest convergence and a tendency for mid-level warming casts some uncertainty. At the very least, storms are likely to move into/across the region later this evening with an appreciable damaging wind/hail risk via one or more well-organized clusters. Farther south, a couple supercells should form over the higher terrain of the TX Trans-Pecos with a primary risk of large hail. Minor mid-level height rises suggest robust MLCIN will hold east of the Pecos River, limiting the spatial extent of this threat. A separate area of thunderstorms may form near the intersection of the dryline and residual outflow boundary trailing from the central Texas MCS. A deeply mixed boundary layer should support a few supercells that might organize into a cluster this evening. Large hail and severe wind should be the primary threats. ...CO Front Range/south-central High Plains... Scattered thunderstorm development is likely over the Raton Mesa and other parts of Southeast Colorado by peak heating as a minor mid-level impulse in Utah crosses the southern Rockies. Amid 30-40 kt 500-mb westerlies, this activity should spread east and impinge on richer boundary-layer moisture in the Texas Panhandle this evening. At least on an isolated basis, supercells capable of large hail and possibly some tornado/damaging wind risk can be expected as storms spread east/southeastward. ...Mid-Atlantic States/Delmarva... An area of organized severe potential is apparent across southeast PA, NJ, northern MD, and DE ahead of an MCV/weak surface cyclone currently over western PA. Here, some enlargement to low-level hodographs in conjunction with moderate boundary-layer heating of low 70s dew points should support a risk for a few supercells capable of a tornado or two and damaging winds/some hail. Refer to Mesoscale Discussion 1115 for additional short-term details. ...Central Gulf Coast to Carolinas... A belt of 20-30 kt west-southwesterly flow will persist amid afternoon MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. This should again foster a threat for mainly locally damaging wind as numerous multicells occur through this afternoon. ...Montana/Northern High Plains... Isolated strong to severe semi-low-topped thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into evening within a modestly moist/unstable environment ahead of an amplifying/southeastward-moving mid-level shortwave trough. Well-mixed boundary layers could yield severe-caliber wind gusts along with some localized/marginal hail potential.
Read more - Tue, 18 Jun 2019 13:23:04 -0600: SPC MD 1120 - SPC Forecast Products
MD 1120 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO...NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST KANSAS...THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...AND FAR NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
Mesoscale Discussion 1120 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019 Areas affected...Southeast Colorado...Northeast New Mexico...Southwest Kansas...the Oklahoma Panhandle...and far northern Texas Panhandle. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 181922Z - 182045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms are expected through the afternoon. A severe thunderstorm watch is possible. DISCUSSION...A combination of low-level upslope flow and terrain induced circulation has led to convective development over the higher terrain of the Colorado Front Range and the Baton Mesa. Through the afternoon, these storms are expected to move off of the higher terrain into the Plains. Currently, this area is only weakly unstable (500 to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE), but additional heating through the afternoon will lead to more moderate instability ~1500 J/kg. Effective shear around 30 knots will support isolated supercell structures. Mid-level lapse rates are around 7.5-8 C/km (per RAP mesoanalysis) which will support a threat for large hail (especially initially when storm mode will be more discrete) before the threat becomes more of a damaging wind threat as storms congeal. ..Bentley/Guyer.. 06/18/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... LAT...LON 38980542 39000457 38770305 38160196 38130087 38050026 37250017 36690041 36130108 35860178 35900262 35950438 36690513 38490552 38980542Read more - Tue, 18 Jun 2019 13:21:04 -0600: SPC MD 1119 - SPC Forecast Products
MD 1119 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS VICINITY INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1119 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019 Areas affected...Texas South Plains vicinity into western North Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 181920Z - 182115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe risk should gradually evolve this afternoon, with increasing risk expected into this evening. While a WW may be needed this afternoon, current expectation is that greater need may evolve into early evening. DISCUSSION...Latest objective analysis shows a moistening of the low-level airmass in the wake of earlier convection that has since shifted southeast across Texas and dissipated. Combined with daytime heating, mixed-layer CAPE now in excess of 3000 J/kg is indicated. Despite the CAPE, the cu field remains hindered across the region at this time, in line with model soundings which suggest persistent capping/weak short-wave ridging across the area. Within the past hour, one lone cell attempted to initiate southwest of Childress, but has failed to sustain itself. In the shorter term, an isolated storm or two may evolve -- and if so would be accompanied by risk for damaging winds and hail, given the degree of CAPE and moderately sheared environment. However, present indications are that greater risk -- and thus greater likelihood for WW issuance -- will become greater late this afternoon and early this evening, particularly as the low-level jet begins to develop. ..Goss/Guyer.. 06/18/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 31960129 33990188 34580108 34349960 33439894 31689980 31960129Read more - Tue, 18 Jun 2019 13:20:04 -0600: SPC MD 1118 - SPC Forecast Products
MD 1118 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN VIRGINIA/NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 1118 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019 Areas affected...Southern Virginia/northern North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 181919Z - 182115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Risk for locally damaging winds -- and possibly marginal hail -- will exist with a couple of the strongest storms this afternoon. WW is not expected, due to isolated/limited nature of the risk. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows storms developing either side of the VA/NC border, within an airmass that has become moderately unstable (2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE) due to heating of the seasonably moist boundary-layer. Low-level flow across this region remains weak, but area VWPs indicate some enhancement to the mid-level west-southwest flow -- which is on the order of 30 to 40 kt. As such, a few stronger updrafts will likely emerge from time to time, accompanied by attendant risk for gusty/locally damaging winds. Overall, degree of risk will likely remain tempered -- at least in part due to an overall lack of forcing, beneath weak short-wave ridging aloft ahead of the central Gulf Coast region upper disturbance. As such, WW is not anticipated across this area this afternoon, before storms begin to diurnally weaken this evening. ..Goss/Guyer.. 06/18/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP... LAT...LON 37557574 37037536 36317698 36118020 35978183 36798119 37667938 37557574Read more - Tue, 18 Jun 2019 13:09:29 -0600: SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF COLUMBIA BASIN... Confidence has increased in RH remaining low enough during the afternoon in portions of the Columbia Basin that a critical area has been introduced. Given the somewhat cooler temperatures and influx of marine air, critical conditions will likely be low-end with RH only slightly dipping below 20%. However, latest NWCC fuel guidance indicates low elevation fine fuels are cured in the Basin and with 20-25 mph surface winds expected, an upgrade appears warranted. In central Montana, thunderstorm coverage has remained isolated so far today. However, with an upstream shortwave trough in northwest Montana, coverage appears likely to become more scattered through the afternoon. Precipitation trends will continue to be monitored. ..Wendt.. 06/18/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019/ ...Synopsis... A seasonably strong upper trough is expected to deepen across the Northwest on Wednesday, as a surface low moves southeastward across Montana and a cold front sweeps through the northern Rockies and High Plains. ...Columbia Basin Vicinity... Another dry and breezy day is expected across the Columbia Basin vicinity on Wednesday. Wind speeds should be higher compared to D1/Tuesday, as stronger flow aloft mixes down within a cold advection regime. RH is the primary uncertainty regarding critical potential, with minimum RH values potentially remaining in the 20-30% range due to cooler surface temperatures. The Washington portion of the elevated area appears to have a greater chance of seeing critically low RH, and an upgrade across this area is possible in subsequent outlooks. ...Central Montana... Dry and breezy post-frontal conditions are expected across much of central MT Wednesday afternoon. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph and minimum RH values of 15-25% will result in elevated to locally critical meteorological conditions. However, some antecedent rainfall is possible over this area on Tuesday into Tuesday night, and there is uncertainty regarding fuel receptiveness even in the absence of any precipitation. Due to these concerns, no areas have been introduced, though an elevated delineation may become necessary for areas that see only limited rainfall prior to Wednesday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more - Tue, 18 Jun 2019 12:26:03 -0600: SPC MD 1117 - SPC Forecast Products
MD 1117 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS INTO THE TRANSPECOS/SOUTH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 1117 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019 Areas affected...eastern New Mexico and far West Texas into the Transpecos/South Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 181825Z - 182100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated storms may develop over the next 1-2 hours, with more widespread development expected later. While eventual WW issuance may be needed eastward across western and central Texas, need for a watch in the shorter term, westward into far West Texas and eastern New Mexico, remains uncertain. DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows some deeper cumulus increasing over the higher terrain of central/south-central New Mexico, and southward across portions of the Davis Mountains. This convection is on the western fringe of the instability gradient, and is evolving in line with various CAM runs which show isolated storm initiation in the 19Z to 20Z time frame across this region. Weak short-wave ridging -- and associated weak subsidence -- is expected to maintain a largely capped boundary layer, such that development should remain initially isolated. With that said, steep lapse rates aloft/moderate CAPE combined with enough veering and increase of the flow with height to yield modest shear, would support severe potential with any sustained storm. Still, current expectations are that any storms development over the next couple of hours within the discussion area should remain isolated enough so as to preclude the need for WW issuance. We will continue to monitor cumulus/convective development across this region, for any signs that coverage could become greater in the short term than is currently anticipated. Late this afternoon into early evening, as convection progresses eastward across the South Plains/Transpecos region, increased development/upscale growth -- in conjunction with initial low-level jet development -- will result in more widespread potential for severe weather, and attendant need for WW issuance. ..Goss/Guyer.. 06/18/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 30410478 33360511 34500518 35170372 34780215 32090162 30580095 29860165 29770267 28920322 29560444 30410478Read more - Tue, 18 Jun 2019 12:10:12 -0600: SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 394 Status Reports - SPC Forecast Products
WW 0394 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0394 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more - Tue, 18 Jun 2019 12:10:04 -0600: SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 394 - SPC Forecast Products
WW 394 SEVERE TSTM DC DE MD NJ PA VA CW 181810Z - 190200ZURGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 394 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 210 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Delaware Eastern Maryland New Jersey Southeast Pennsylvania Northern and eastern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 210 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...At least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop from southeast Pennsylvania into New Jersey, where potential will exist for a couple of supercells with hail/wind and potentially some tornado risk. Other storms will also increase this afternoon south-southwestward across the Delmarva and broader parts of northern/eastern Virginia to eastern Maryland, with damaging winds and some hail possible in these areas. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles southeast of Lakehurst NJ to 55 miles west southwest of Washington DC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26025. ...Guyer
Read more - Tue, 18 Jun 2019 11:30:44 -0600: SPC Jun 18, 2019 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL TX TO THE OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday from parts of north-central Texas into the Tennessee Valley. ...TX to OH Valley... Central Rockies short-wave trough is forecast to turn east-southeast across the central High Plains during the day1 period. This feature should aid significant convection that may grow upscale into an MCS late Monday. Remnants of one or more MCS-type complexes will propagate downstream...perhaps into AR by the start of the day2 period. This forecast is predicated on an organized MCV evolving from this complex. If so, strong boundary-layer heating is expected along leading edge of cloud canopy/precip shield, possibly from southern AR into western TN. Increased buoyancy ahead of the MCV should result in renewed thunderstorm development by early afternoon within an increasingly sheared regime ahead of the aforementioned short wave. Large hail/damaging winds can be expected with organized convection under this scenario. Upstream across the Arklatex into the DFW Metroplex, trailing wind shift should provide the low-level convergence for convective development by late afternoon. Forecast soundings across north-central TX exhibit extreme SBCAPE with more than adequate shear for supercells. As temperatures warm into the lower-mid 90s inhibition should weaken such that thunderstorms evolve. Subsequent movement would allow this activity to move southeast toward northern LA, perhaps back building through the Metroplex. Very large hail may accompany this activity due to the expected shear/lapse rates and storm mode. ...Northern WY to Black Hills... Strong mid-level jet will approach northern WY during the late afternoon. High-level diffluence should encourage sustained convection along the WY/MT border that should propagate toward the Black Hills during the evening hours. With LLJ expected to increase over western SD this activity may linger well into the overnight hours. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% SIG - Slight ..Darrow.. 06/18/2019
Read more - Tue, 18 Jun 2019 11:01:25 -0600: SPC Jun 18, 2019 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
SPC 1630Z Day 1 OutlookDay 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the central and southern Great Plains in multiple rounds this afternoon through tonight. Other severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-Atlantic region and parts of the Southeast. ...Kansas... An MCV will continue to drift generally eastward across western/central Kansas through the afternoon and evening. A trend of thinning/increasingly scattered cloud cover should occur through the afternoon, aided by a modest MCV-peripheral dry slot. Expectations are for more of a southeasterly low-level wind component to materialize across central Kansas by mid/late afternoon, while enhanced mid-level winds otherwise spread eastward across the southern half of Kansas. Thunderstorms should initially intensify across central/south-central Kansas by mid-afternoon, with moderate buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear/modest overall forcing likely being conducive for semi-discrete supercells, at least for a few hours duration. A few tornadoes will be possible aside from severe hail/wind as storms spread east-southeastward toward and across the I-35/I-135 corridor through late afternoon and early/mid-evening. ...Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle to west/southwest Texas... Timing of the peak/most-certain severe risk is a bit questionable across parts of this region, but the potential exists for a sub-regional corridor to be impacted by multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms. At the very least, a conditional severe/supercell risk will exist as early as mid/late afternoon across the Texas Panhandle/Low Rolling Plains and western Oklahoma within a very unstable environment. However, modest convergence and a tendency for mid-level warming casts some uncertainty. At the very least, storms are likely to move into/across the region later this evening with an appreciable damaging wind/hail risk via one or more well-organized clusters. Farther south, a couple supercells should form over the higher terrain of the TX Trans-Pecos with a primary risk of large hail. Minor mid-level height rises suggest robust MLCIN will hold east of the Pecos River, limiting the spatial extent of this threat. A separate area of thunderstorms may form near the intersection of the dryline and residual outflow boundary trailing from the central Texas MCS. A deeply mixed boundary layer should support a few supercells that might organize into a cluster this evening. Large hail and severe wind should be the primary threats. ...CO Front Range/south-central High Plains... Scattered thunderstorm development is likely over the Raton Mesa and other parts of Southeast Colorado by peak heating as a minor mid-level impulse in Utah crosses the southern Rockies. Amid 30-40 kt 500-mb westerlies, this activity should spread east and impinge on richer boundary-layer moisture in the Texas Panhandle this evening. At least on an isolated basis, supercells capable of large hail and possibly some tornado/damaging wind risk can be expected as storms spread east/southeastward. ...Mid-Atlantic States/Delmarva... An area of organized severe potential is apparent across southeast PA, NJ, northern MD, and DE ahead of an MCV/weak surface cyclone currently over western PA. Here, some enlargement to low-level hodographs in conjunction with moderate boundary-layer heating of low 70s dew points should support a risk for a few supercells capable of a tornado or two and damaging winds/some hail. Refer to Mesoscale Discussion 1115 for additional short-term details. ...Central Gulf Coast to Carolinas... A belt of 20-30 kt west-southwesterly flow will persist amid afternoon MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. This should again foster a threat for mainly locally damaging wind as numerous multicells occur through this afternoon. ...Montana/Northern High Plains... Isolated strong to severe semi-low-topped thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into evening within a modestly moist/unstable environment ahead of an amplifying/southeastward-moving mid-level shortwave trough. Well-mixed boundary layers could yield severe-caliber wind gusts along with some localized/marginal hail potential. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 06/18/2019
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