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NOAA SPC – Fire Weather

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Rich

NOAA – Storm Prediction Center – Feed For SPC Fire Weather Outlooks

  • Wed, 19 Sep 2018 18:55:06 -0600: SPC - No watches are valid as of Thu Sep 20 00:56:02 UTC 2018 - SPC Forecast Products
    No watches are valid as of Thu Sep 20 00:56:02 UTC 2018.
  • Wed, 19 Sep 2018 18:55:05 -0600: SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Thu Sep 20 00:56:02 UTC 2018 - SPC Forecast Products
    No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Sep 20 00:56:02 UTC 2018.
  • Wed, 19 Sep 2018 18:44:31 -0600: SPC Sep 20, 2018 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
    SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
    Day 1 Outlook Image
    Day 1 Convective Outlook  
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0740 PM CDT Wed Sep 19 2018
    
    Valid 200100Z - 201200Z
    
    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
    ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
    PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO UPPER MIDWEST...
    
    ...SUMMARY...
    Strong storms may continue to impact a corridor from the central
    Plains into the Upper Midwest through tonight, accompanied by at
    least some risk for severe weather.
    
    ...01Z Outlook Update...
    Low-level convergence along a quasi-stationary frontal zone across
    southwest through central Nebraska has been sufficient to support
    the initiation of thunderstorms in the peak late afternoon/early
    evening boundary layer instability.  Beneath modestly steep
    mid-level lapse rates associated with warm elevated mixed-layer air,
    a narrow corridor of dew points near 70f is contributing to sizable
    CAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg.  This corridor appears south of the stronger
    mid-latitude westerlies, but veering of winds with height appears to
    be contributing to sufficient deep layer shear for organized
    convection, including supercells.  Ongoing development has not been
    particularly rapid, and convection may still be suppressed by
    mid-level inhibition, which probably will increase through 02-04Z,
    with the loss of daytime heating.  However, a period of thunderstorm
    intensification may still not be out of the question, before this
    results in weakening convective trends.  Stronger storms may become
    capable of producing severe hail and strong wind gusts.
    
    Later this evening, into the overnight hours, forcing for ascent
    associated with strengthening lower/mid tropospheric warm advection
    is expected to maintain and support increasing thunderstorm
    development along a corridor from southeastern South Dakota/
    northeastern Nebraska through northern Iowa and perhaps southwestern
    Wisconsin/northwestern Illinois.  This is roughly along the
    northeastern periphery of the plume of warmer and more strongly
    capping elevated mixed layer air, where lapse rates and shear
    profiles above/to the cool side of the surface frontal zone may
    remain supportive of a risk for severe hail threat into tonight.
    
    ..Kerr.. 09/20/2018
    
    
    Read more

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Updated: March 12, 2011 — 12:32 pm

The Author

Rich Fleetwood

Rich is the founder of SurvivalRing, now in it's 20th year, author of multimedia CDs and DVDs, loves the outdoors, his family, his geeky skill-set, and lives in rural Missouri, just a few miles from the Big Muddy. Always ready to help others, he shares what he learns on multiple blogs, social sites, and more. With a background in preparedness and survival skills, training with county, state, and national organizations, and skills in all areas of media and on air experience in live radio and television, Rich is always thinking about the "big picture", when it comes to helping individuals and families prepare for life's little surprises. Since 1997, he has provided guidance, authentic government survival history, and commentary on why we all need to get ready for that fateful day in the future, when we have to get our hands dirty and step in to save the day. He is an award winning videographer (2005 Telly Award), has received state and national scholarly recognition (2006 New Century Scholar and All USA Academic Team), and is a natural with computers, technology, gadgets, small furry mammals, and anything on wheels. Rich likes making friends, solving problems, and creating solutions to everyday issues. He doesn't mind mixing things up, when there is a teaching moment ready to happen. As a constitutional conservative, he's staying quite busy these days. The SurvivalRing Radio Show at www.survivalringradio.com will be coming back SOON!

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