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NOAA – Storm Prediction Center – Feed For SPC Fire Weather Outlooks
- Fri, 23 Aug 2019 20:16:03 -0600: SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 615 Status Reports - SPC Forecast Products
WW 0615 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 615 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE GUY TO 30 WSW GCK TO 5 NW DDC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1845 ..WENDT..08/24/19 ATTN...WFO...DDC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 615 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC069-081-119-175-240340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GRAY HASKELL MEADE SEWARD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more - Fri, 23 Aug 2019 20:16:02 -0600: SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 615 - SPC Forecast Products
WW 615 SEVERE TSTM KS 232350Z - 240400ZURGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 615 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 650 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Kansas * Effective this Friday evening from 650 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Isolated significant damaging wind gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Discrete supercell over southwest Kansas may evolve into a slow-moving cluster along a remnant outflow boundary. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles north of Elkhart KS to 30 miles east southeast of Garden City KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 612...WW 613...WW 614... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29015. ...GramsRead more - Fri, 23 Aug 2019 20:14:04 -0600: SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 613 Status Reports - SPC Forecast Products
WW 0613 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 613 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW CAO TO 10 SE CAO TO 30 NE DHT TO GUY TO 15 NNE GUY TO 55 WNW GCK TO 30 NW LAA TO 10 E CYS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1845 ..WENDT..08/24/19 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...DDC...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 613 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-061-063-075-087-095-115-121-123-125-240340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE KIOWA KIT CARSON LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD YUMA KSC023-071-181-199-240340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE GREELEY SHERMAN WALLACE NEC057-240340-
Read more - Fri, 23 Aug 2019 20:14:04 -0600: SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 613 - SPC Forecast Products
WW 613 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE NM OK TX 232035Z - 240400ZURGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 613 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 235 PM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado Extreme western Kansas Extreme southwestern Nebraska Extreme northeastern New Mexico The western Oklahoma Panhandle The northwestern Texas Panhandle * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 235 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forming in several clusters along the Front Range from northeastern New Mexico northward into Colorado. The storm environment is most favorable for multicell clusters and some upscale growth into larger clusters/line segments with an attendant threat for damaging winds and large hail. An isolated tornado or two may occur later this evening as storms interact with a remnant outflow boundary near the Kansas/Colorado border. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north northwest of Akron CO to 25 miles south southeast of Dalhart TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 612... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Thompson
Read more - Fri, 23 Aug 2019 20:09:04 -0600: SPC MD 1845 - SPC Forecast Products
MD 1845 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 613...615... FOR PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1845 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0908 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019 Areas affected...Portions of east-central Colorado and western Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 613...615... Valid 240208Z - 240415Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 613, 615 continues. SUMMARY...Marked downward trend in storm intensity in from east-central Colorado to southwest Kansas in the last hour has reduced overall severe threat. Localized strong gusts and isolated marginally severe hail may still occur, but WW 613 and WW 615 will be allowed to expire at 04Z. DISCUSSION...Storms along the outflow boundary west of Dodge City, KS have generally remained stationary with some tendency to move southward into more buoyant air. The amount of convective overturning that has occurred in southwestern Kansas will diminish the overall severe threat. In east-central Colorado, the slow moving cluster of storms has continued to move into more stable air behind the outflow boundary. Trends in radar imagery has generally shown a decrease in storm intensity as high reflectivity cores aloft have diminished in the last half hour. A modest increase in the low-level jet this evening may allow some of this activity to pose a sporadic/localized threat for a strong wind gust or marginally severe hail. Given the observational trends, WW 613 and WW 615 will be allowed to expire at 04Z. ..Wendt.. 08/24/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 37210133 38280301 38720353 39570369 39910313 39900233 39890205 38590019 37369995 37170017 37100076 37070112 37210133Read more - Fri, 23 Aug 2019 20:07:04 -0600: SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 614 Status Reports - SPC Forecast Products
WW 0614 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 614 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W SNY TO 20 WSW AIA TO 40 NW CDR TO 20 SE GCC. ..SMITH..08/24/19 ATTN...WFO...CYS...UNR...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 614 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC013-033-045-105-123-240250- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE DAWES KIMBALL MORRILL SDC033-047-240250- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CUSTER FALL RIVER WYC005-011-045-240250- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMPBELL CROOK WESTON
Read more - Fri, 23 Aug 2019 20:07:03 -0600: SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 614 - SPC Forecast Products
WW 614 SEVERE TSTM NE SD WY 232055Z - 240400ZURGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 614 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 255 PM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of The western Nebraska Panhandle Extreme southwestern South Dakota Much of central and eastern Wyoming * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 255 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forming across central Wyoming and immediately east of the higher terrain into eastern Wyoming. The storm environment is sufficient for supercells across central Wyoming, though growth into clusters with damaging winds and large hail should be the primary concern through late evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles east southeast of Cheyenne WY to 95 miles north northeast of Casper WY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 612...WW 613... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23025. ...Thompson
Read more - Fri, 23 Aug 2019 19:41:03 -0600: SPC MD 1844 - SPC Forecast Products
MD 1844 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1844 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0840 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019 Areas affected...Portions of Texas Panhandle and northwestern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 240140Z - 240345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe wind gusts will remain possible for the next hour or two. Greatest risk will exist from near Pampa, TX to near Gage, OK. A new WW is not expected for downstream areas from current activity. DISCUSSION...Recently measured severe wind gusts at Dumas, TX (50 kts) and Beaver, OK (61 kts) indicate that that some risk for severe wind gusts will persist into early evening. The greatest risk appears to be from the Pampa, TX vicinity to Gage, OK where dewpoints have remained in the low 60s F to around 70 F in Hemphill, TX, minimizing MLCIN in this area. However, with continued boundary layer cooling and weak upper-level support, this threat is not likely to continue for more than another hour or two. The 00Z AMA sounding shows weak MLCIN with increasing inhibition noted in Oklahoma per the 00Z OUN sounding. A new WW is not anticipated for areas downstream of the ongoing activity. ..Wendt/Grams.. 08/24/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 35360285 36350198 36950046 36869952 36289898 35019977 34640104 34580236 34970283 35360285Read more - Fri, 23 Aug 2019 19:22:06 -0600: SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 612 Status Reports - SPC Forecast Products
WW 0612 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 612 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE RDU TO 10 SE GSO TO 30 SE RZZ. WW 612 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 240200Z. ..SMITH..08/24/19 ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 612 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC001-063-069-081-127-135-240200- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALAMANCE DURHAM FRANKLIN GUILFORD NASH ORANGE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more - Fri, 23 Aug 2019 18:48:46 -0600: SPC Aug 24, 2019 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple clusters of storms will pose a damaging wind and hail threat across parts of eastern Wyoming and Colorado into western South Dakota, Nebraska and Kansas this evening. The severe threat may extend as far south as the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle vicinity. ...VA and NC Vicinity... The main change with the 01z update is to remove the Slight and Marginal risk probabilities. Overall, the threat has greatly diminished, and should continue to do so over the next couple of hours as storms move offshore and as the boundary layer stabilizes with loss of daytime heating. A couple of locally strong gusts will remain possible over the next hour or so. ...High Plains... Only minor adjustments have been made to the Slight and Marginal risk areas based on latest trends and ongoing convection. Isolated large hail and strong, locally damaging wind gusts will be possible through the evening, mainly from eastern WY southward through the central High Plains into the TX Panhandle. A line of semi-discrete storms is developing this evening across southwest KS in an area of moist convergence along an outflow boundary along with an increasing low level jet. This band of storms should persist for several more hours this evening, posing a damaging wind threat across parts of western KS and perhaps parts of the OK/TX Panhandles/northwest OK. Additional clusters of storms across east-central and northeast CO and eastern WY will shift eastward into northwest KS, western NE, and southwest SD. With the strengthening low level jet now evident in observations, these clusters also may grow upscale into bowing segments, increasing damaging wind potential as they shift east through the evening. ..Leitman.. 08/24/2019
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