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NOAA – Storm Prediction Center – Feed For SPC Fire Weather Outlooks
- Wed, 19 Sep 2018 18:55:06 -0600: SPC - No watches are valid as of Thu Sep 20 00:56:02 UTC 2018 - SPC Forecast Products
No watches are valid as of Thu Sep 20 00:56:02 UTC 2018. - Wed, 19 Sep 2018 18:55:05 -0600: SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Thu Sep 20 00:56:02 UTC 2018 - SPC Forecast Products
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Sep 20 00:56:02 UTC 2018. - Wed, 19 Sep 2018 18:44:31 -0600: SPC Sep 20, 2018 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook - SPC Forecast Products
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Wed Sep 19 2018 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms may continue to impact a corridor from the central Plains into the Upper Midwest through tonight, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...01Z Outlook Update... Low-level convergence along a quasi-stationary frontal zone across southwest through central Nebraska has been sufficient to support the initiation of thunderstorms in the peak late afternoon/early evening boundary layer instability. Beneath modestly steep mid-level lapse rates associated with warm elevated mixed-layer air, a narrow corridor of dew points near 70f is contributing to sizable CAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg. This corridor appears south of the stronger mid-latitude westerlies, but veering of winds with height appears to be contributing to sufficient deep layer shear for organized convection, including supercells. Ongoing development has not been particularly rapid, and convection may still be suppressed by mid-level inhibition, which probably will increase through 02-04Z, with the loss of daytime heating. However, a period of thunderstorm intensification may still not be out of the question, before this results in weakening convective trends. Stronger storms may become capable of producing severe hail and strong wind gusts. Later this evening, into the overnight hours, forcing for ascent associated with strengthening lower/mid tropospheric warm advection is expected to maintain and support increasing thunderstorm development along a corridor from southeastern South Dakota/ northeastern Nebraska through northern Iowa and perhaps southwestern Wisconsin/northwestern Illinois. This is roughly along the northeastern periphery of the plume of warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed layer air, where lapse rates and shear profiles above/to the cool side of the surface frontal zone may remain supportive of a risk for severe hail threat into tonight. ..Kerr.. 09/20/2018
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