National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

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National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

  • Fri, 23 Aug 2019 20:35:37 -0600: Tropical Storm Ivo Graphics - NHC Eastern North Pacific
    Tropical Storm Ivo 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 24 Aug 2019 02:35:37 GMT

    Tropical Storm Ivo 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 24 Aug 2019 02:35:37 GMT
  • Fri, 23 Aug 2019 20:35:05 -0600: Tropical Storm Ivo Forecast Discussion Number 12 - NHC Eastern North Pacific
    Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019
    
    000
    WTPZ45 KNHC 240235
    TCDEP5
    
    Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number  12
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102019
    800 PM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019
    
    Deep convection associated with Ivo has become more separated from
    the low-level center this evening, and the cloud tops have also
    warmed during the past few hours.  Subjective and objective Dvorak
    intensity estimates have decreased and now support an initial wind
    speed of 45 kt.  Although the vertical wind shear over the cyclone
    is predicted to decrease during the next 24 hours, Ivo will be
    moving over progressively cooler waters and into less favorable
    thermodynamic conditions.  This should cause the storm to gradually
    weaken, and once Ivo moves over SSTs of 23-24 degrees Celsius on
    Sunday the cyclone should degenerate into a remnant low.
    
    Ivo is moving north-northwestward or 335/9 kt.  There is little
    change to the previous track forecast reasoning.  Ivo should
    continue to move north-northwestward around the western periphery
    of a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico.  Once the cyclone
    weakens and becomes a vertically shallow system, it is likely to
    decelerate as it comes under the influence of the low-level steering
    flow.  The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous
    advisory and lies closest to the HFIP corrected consensus model.
    
    
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  24/0300Z 20.5N 115.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
     12H  24/1200Z 21.6N 116.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
     24H  25/0000Z 23.3N 116.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
     36H  25/1200Z 25.1N 117.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
     48H  26/0000Z 26.6N 118.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     72H  27/0000Z 28.6N 118.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     96H  28/0000Z...DISSIPATED
    
    $$
    Forecaster Brown
    
    
  • Fri, 23 Aug 2019 20:34:36 -0600: Tropical Storm Ivo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12 - NHC Eastern North Pacific
    Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 24 2019
    
    339 
    FOPZ15 KNHC 240234
    PWSEP5
                                                                        
    TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  12              
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102019               
    0300 UTC SAT AUG 24 2019                                            
                                                                        
    AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
    20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
    45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                                          
                                                                        
    Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
       PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                        
    WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                        
    CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
       ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
       ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
       ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
    FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
        OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
            AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
       (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
            00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
    X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
    THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
    64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                        
                                                                        
      - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                        
                   FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
      TIME       00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
    PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
                 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
                                                                        
    FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
    LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                        
    IS GUADALUPE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
     
    ISLA CLARION   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
     
    20N 115W       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
    20N 115W       50 13   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
     
    25N 115W       34  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
     
    25N 120W       34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
     
    $$                                                                  
    FORECASTER BROWN                                                    
    
    
  • Fri, 23 Aug 2019 20:34:09 -0600: Tropical Storm Ivo Forecast Advisory Number 12 - NHC Eastern North Pacific
    Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 24 2019
    
    000
    WTPZ25 KNHC 240234
    TCMEP5
    
    TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102019
    0300 UTC SAT AUG 24 2019
    
    THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
    
    TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 115.5W AT 24/0300Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
    
    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT   9 KT
    
    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
    34 KT....... 80NE 120SE 150SW  40NW.
    12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 120SW 120NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
    
    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 115.5W AT 24/0300Z
    AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 115.3W
    
    FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 21.6N 116.0W
    MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
    34 KT... 70NE 100SE 120SW  40NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 23.3N 116.8W
    MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
    34 KT... 50NE  70SE  60SW  30NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 25.1N 117.6W
    MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
    
    FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 26.6N 118.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
    
    FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 28.6N 118.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
    
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
    
    OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED
    
    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 115.5W
    
    NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z
    
    $$
    FORECASTER BROWN
    
    
    
  • Fri, 23 Aug 2019 20:34:09 -0600: Tropical Storm Ivo Public Advisory Number 12 - NHC Eastern North Pacific
    Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019
    
    000
    WTPZ35 KNHC 240234
    TCPEP5
    
    BULLETIN
    Tropical Storm Ivo Advisory Number  12
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102019
    800 PM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019
    
    ...IVO WEAKENS AS IT HEADS TOWARD COOLER WATERS...
    
    
    SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...20.5N 115.5W
    ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES
    
    
    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
    
    
    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was
    located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 115.5 West. Ivo is
    moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this
    general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.
    
    Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
    with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast and Ivo is expected
    to weaken to a tropical depression Saturday night and then
    degenerate into a remnant low on Sunday.
    
    Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
    from the center.
    
    The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).
    
    
    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    None
    
    
    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.
    
    $$
    Forecaster Brown
    
    
  • Fri, 23 Aug 2019 20:34:09 -0600: Summary for Tropical Storm Ivo (EP5/EP102019) - NHC Eastern North Pacific
    ...IVO WEAKENS AS IT HEADS TOWARD COOLER WATERS... As of 8:00 PM PDT Fri Aug 23 the center of Ivo was located near 20.5, -115.5 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
  • Fri, 23 Aug 2019 17:40:11 -0600: Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Eastern North Pacific

    000
    ABPZ20 KNHC 232340
    TWOEP

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    500 PM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019

    For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
    Storm Ivo, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of the
    southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

    A surface trough located about 1000 miles east-southeast of the Big
    Island of Hawaii is producing limited shower and thunderstorm
    activity. Environmental conditions could become a little more
    conducive for some development in a few days as the system moves
    northwestward. Future information on this disturbance can be found
    in Tropical Weather Outlooks issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
    Center.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

    An area of low pressure is forecast to form just offshore of the
    west-central Mexico coast near the southern tip of the Baja
    California peninsula by the middle of next week. Some development of
    this system is possible thereafter while it moves westward or
    west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

    &&
    Tropical Weather Outlooks issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
    Center can be found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP, and WMO header
    ACPN50 PHFO. It can also be found on the web at hurricanes.gov

    $$
    Forecaster Zelinsky

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The Author

Rich Fleetwood

Rich is the founder of SurvivalRing, now in it's 20th year, author of multimedia CDs and DVDs, loves the outdoors, his family, his geeky skill-set, and lives in rural Missouri, just a few miles from the Big Muddy. Always ready to help others, he shares what he learns on multiple blogs, social sites, and more. With a background in preparedness and survival skills, training with county, state, and national organizations, and skills in all areas of media and on air experience in live radio and television, Rich is always thinking about the "big picture", when it comes to helping individuals and families prepare for life's little surprises. Since 1997, he has provided guidance, authentic government survival history, and commentary on why we all need to get ready for that fateful day in the future, when we have to get our hands dirty and step in to save the day. He is an award winning videographer (2005 Telly Award), has received state and national scholarly recognition (2006 New Century Scholar and All USA Academic Team), and is a natural with computers, technology, gadgets, small furry mammals, and anything on wheels. Rich likes making friends, solving problems, and creating solutions to everyday issues. He doesn't mind mixing things up, when there is a teaching moment ready to happen. As a constitutional conservative, he's staying quite busy these days. The SurvivalRing Radio Show at www.survivalringradio.com will be coming back SOON!

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