SurvivalRing

Rich Fleetwood on Survival & Preparedness - Founded/Established 1997

National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Below are some of my favorite websites, showing their latest content from RSS feeds.

If you’d like recommend a website feed to add here, please post a comment with your request.

Content on these feed pages will change regularly, often daily. Be sure to check back often.

Rich

National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

  • Tue, 23 Oct 2018 02:39:30 -0600: Hurricane Willa Graphics - NHC Eastern North Pacific
    Hurricane Willa 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 23 Oct 2018 08:39:30 GMT

    Hurricane Willa 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 23 Oct 2018 09:27:53 GMT
  • Tue, 23 Oct 2018 02:39:21 -0600: Tropical Depression Vicente Graphics - NHC Eastern North Pacific
    Tropical Depression Vicente 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 23 Oct 2018 08:39:21 GMT

    Tropical Depression Vicente 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 23 Oct 2018 09:21:50 GMT
  • Tue, 23 Oct 2018 02:38:30 -0600: Tropical Depression Vicente Forecast Discussion Number 16 - NHC Eastern North Pacific
    Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018
    
    000
    WTPZ43 KNHC 230838
    TCDEP3
    
    Tropical Depression Vicente Discussion Number  16
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP232018
    400 AM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018
    
    Cells of heavy showers and thunderstorms are still forming near
    Vicente's center, but overall the convective organization has
    continued to deteriorate.  Scatterometer data from 0418 UTC showed
    maximum winds of around 25 kt, so assuming some undersampling of
    the small circulation, the initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt.
    
    WindSat and ASCAT data revealed that Vicente's center had moved a
    little to the east of earlier fixes, and the depression's initial
    motion estimate is north-northwestward, or 330/10 kt.  This motion
    should continue as Vicente gets drawn up between Hurricane Willa's
    circulation and a low- to mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico,
    and the depression is therefore forecast to move inland over the
    Mexican state of Michoacan later today.  Once inland, the tiny
    circulation is likely to dissipate quickly over mountainous
    terrain.  A 12-hour remnant low position is provided for
    continuity to show a track moving inland, but in all likelihood
    Vicente will have dissipated by that time.
    
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  23/0900Z 17.2N 102.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
     12H  23/1800Z 19.2N 103.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
     24H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED
    
    $$
    Forecaster Berg
    
    
  • Tue, 23 Oct 2018 02:38:30 -0600: Hurricane Willa Forecast Discussion Number 13 - NHC Eastern North Pacific
    Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018
    
    000
    WTPZ44 KNHC 230838
    TCDEP4
    
    Hurricane Willa Discussion Number  13
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018
    300 AM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018
    
    Willa's overall satellite presentation has continued to slowly
    degrade since the previous advisory, with the exception of a few
    brief attempts at redevelopment of an inner-core ring of deep
    convection. However, dry intrusions from the moat region between the
    larger outer eyewall and the smaller inner core have thus far
    prevented the reformation of an inner eyewall. Satellite intensity
    estimates have been steadily decreasing, and the advisory intensity
    is set at 115 kt, based on a average of the subjective T- and
    CI-numbers from TAFB and a UW-CIMSS ADT objective estimate of
    T6.0/115 kt. An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is
    scheduled to reconnoiter Hurricane Willa later this morning,
    providing more detailed intensity information.
    
    The initial motion estimate remains northward, but at a slower
    forward speed, or 360/04 kt. There are no significant changes to the
    previous track forecast or reasoning. Willa is expected to move
    slowly northward this morning around the western periphery of a
    deep-layer ridge located over central Mexico, and then recurve
    toward the north-northeast and northeast at a faster forward speed
    by this afternoon ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough, with
    that motion continuing into this evening and Wednesday. The new NHC
    track forecast is near the eastern edge of the tightly packed
    guidance envelope, near the FSSE and GFS model tracks.
    
    There has been no microwave imagery since around 0100Z to provide
    information on the eyewall replacement cycle (ERC). However,
    conventional infrared satellite imagery suggests that the ERC is
    still ongoing based on the appearance of a partial moat or clear
    region in the northern semicircle of the inner core. Willa is
    currently moving over warmer and deeper water as indicated by
    upper-ocean heat content (UOHC) values greater than 50 units. This
    favorable ocean condition is expected to continue along the forecast
    track for another 12 hours or so, which could help to offset the
    weakening rate due to the gradual increase in the southwesterly wind
    shear. By 18 h, or just before landfall, the shear is forecast to
    increase to more than 20 kt and the warm water beneath the hurricane
    is expected to become more shallow, a combination that could lead to
    significant upwelling and weakening. However, the official intensity
    forecast follows the consensus of the various intensity models,
    keeping Willa's intensity near 100 kt at landfall, which is similar
    to the FSSE and HCCA corrected-consensus models. Despite the
    forecast decrease in the peak winds, Willa is expected to remain a
    dangerous major hurricane through landfall, bringing
    life-threatening storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards to Las
    Islas Marias and portions of west-central and southwestern Mexico
    later today. After moving inland, Willa will rapidly weaken, with
    dissipation forecast by Wednesday over the high terrain of Mexico.
    However, deep moisture from the remnants of Willa is forecast to
    spread northeastward over northern Mexico and portions of Texas
    where a swath of heavy rainfall is expected midweek.
    
    Key Messages:
    
    1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected today along the coasts
    of the Isla Marias, and along the coast of southern Sinaloa and
    Nayarit states in west-central and southwestern Mexico near the
    path of Willa. Residents should rush preparations to completion to
    protect life and property and follow any advice given by local
    officials.
    
    2. Everyone in the Isla Marias, and within the hurricane warning
    area along the coast of west-central Mexico should prepare for life-
    threatening major hurricane winds associated with the core of
    Willa. Hurricane force winds will also extend inland across the
    mountainous areas of west-central Mexico as Willa moves inland.
    
    3. Heavy rainfall from Willa is likely to produce life-threatening
    flash flooding and landslides over much of southwestern and
    west-central Mexico.
    
    
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  23/0900Z 20.8N 107.3W  115 KT 130 MPH
     12H  23/1800Z 22.0N 106.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
     24H  24/0600Z 23.8N 104.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
     36H  24/1800Z 25.8N 102.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
     48H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
    
    $$
    Forecaster Stewart
    
    
  • Tue, 23 Oct 2018 02:38:02 -0600: Tropical Depression Vicente Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16 - NHC Eastern North Pacific
    Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 23 2018
    
    000
    FOPZ13 KNHC 230837
    PWSEP3
                                                                        
    TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICENTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  16     
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP232018               
    0900 UTC TUE OCT 23 2018                                            
                                                                        
    AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICENTE WAS LOCATED NEAR 
    LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
    WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                        
    Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
       PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                        
    WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                        
    CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
       ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
       ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
       ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
    FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
        OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
            AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
       (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
            06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
    X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
    THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
    64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                        
                                                                        
      - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                        
                   FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
      TIME       06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
    PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
                 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
                                                                        
    FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
    LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                        
    $$                                                                  
    FORECASTER BERG                                                     
    
  • Tue, 23 Oct 2018 02:37:56 -0600: Summary for Tropical Depression Vicente (EP3/EP232018) - NHC Eastern North Pacific
    ...VICENTE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND AND DISSIPATE OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF MICHOACAN LATER TODAY... As of 4:00 AM CDT Tue Oct 23 the center of Vicente was located near 17.2, -102.0 with movement NNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
  • Tue, 23 Oct 2018 02:37:56 -0600: Tropical Depression Vicente Public Advisory Number 16 - NHC Eastern North Pacific
    Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018
    
    000
    WTPZ33 KNHC 230837
    TCPEP3
    
    BULLETIN
    Tropical Depression Vicente Advisory Number  16
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP232018
    400 AM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018
    
    ...VICENTE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
    ...EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND AND DISSIPATE OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF
    MICHOACAN LATER TODAY...
    
    
    SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...17.2N 102.0W
    ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
    
    
    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
    
    Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the
    progress of Vicente.
    
    
    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Vicente
    was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 102.0 West.  Vicente
    is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
    general motion is expected to continue today.  On the forecast
    track, the center of Vicente is expected to move inland over the
    Mexican state of Michoacan later today.
    
    Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds
    have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Vicente
    is expected to dissipate later today or tonight after it has moved
    inland over Mexico.
    
    The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
    
    
    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    RAINFALL:  Vicente or its remnants are expected to produce 3 to 6
    inches of rain with local amounts to 10 inches through today over
    portions of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco in Mexico.
    This rainfall could produce life-threatening flash flooding and
    landslides within mountainous terrain.
    
    
    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
    
    $$
    Forecaster Berg
    
    
  • Tue, 23 Oct 2018 02:37:29 -0600: Tropical Depression Vicente Forecast Advisory Number 16 - NHC Eastern North Pacific
    Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 23 2018
    
    000
    WTPZ23 KNHC 230837
    TCMEP3
    
    TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICENTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP232018
    0900 UTC TUE OCT 23 2018
    
    THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
    
    INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
    PROGRESS OF VICENTE.
    
    TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 102.0W AT 23/0900Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
    
    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT  10 KT
    
    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
    
    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 102.0W AT 23/0900Z
    AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 101.7W
    
    FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 19.2N 103.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND
    MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
    
    FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED
    
    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 102.0W
    
    NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z
    
    $$
    FORECASTER BERG
    
    
    
  • Tue, 23 Oct 2018 02:37:29 -0600: Summary for Hurricane Willa (EP4/EP242018) - NHC Eastern North Pacific
    ...DANGEROUS WILLA MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 3:00 AM MDT Tue Oct 23 the center of Willa was located near 20.8, -107.3 with movement N at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 945 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.
  • Tue, 23 Oct 2018 02:37:29 -0600: Hurricane Willa Public Advisory Number 13 - NHC Eastern North Pacific
    Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018
    
    000
    WTPZ34 KNHC 230837
    TCPEP4
    
    BULLETIN
    Hurricane Willa Advisory Number  13
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018
    300 AM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018
    
    ...DANGEROUS WILLA MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO...
    ...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND
    RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
    
    
    SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...20.8N 107.3W
    ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
    ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES
    
    
    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
    
    None.
    
    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
    
    A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
    * San Blas to Mazatlan, including Las Islas Marias
    
    A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
    * Playa Perula to San Blas
    * North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya
    
    A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
    somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6 to
    12 hours for Islas Marias, and within 12 to 18 hours for mainland
    Mexico. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
    to completion.
    
    A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
    expected somewhere within the warning area.
    
    Interests elsewhere along the coasts of west-central and
    southwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Willa.
    
    For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
    products issued by your national meteorological service.
    
    
    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Willa was located
    near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 107.3 West. Willa is moving
    toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the north-
    northeast is expected later this morning, followed by a faster
    motion toward the northeast by this evening. On the forecast track,
    the center of Willa will move near or over Las Islas Marias later
    this morning and afternoon, and make landfall within the hurricane
    warning area along the west-central coast of mainland Mexico later
    afternoon or this evening.
    
    Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 130 mph (215 km/h)
    with higher gusts.  Willa is an extremely dangerous category 4
    hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While gradual
    weakening is forecast today, Willa is expected to be a dangerous
    major hurricane when it reaches the coast of Mexico. Rapid weakening
    is expected after landfall tonight and continuing into Wednesday.
    
    Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
    center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
    (205 km).
    
    The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches).
    
    
    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    STORM SURGE:  An extremely dangerous storm surge is likely along
    portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico in southern Sinaloa
    and Nayarit, especially near and to the south of where the center of
    Willa makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied
    by large and destructive waves.
    
    RAINFALL:  Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall
    accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts to 18 inches,
    across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, southern
    Sinaloa, and far southern Durango in Mexico. This rainfall will
    cause life-threatening flash flooding and landslides.
    
    Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce rainfall amount of
    2 to 4 inches across the rest of Durango and portions of Zacateca,
    southeast Chihuahua, and Coahuila, with local amounts to 6 inches
    possible. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding.
    
    WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
    warning area on Las Islas Marias this morning, and beginning this
    afternoon along the coast of mainland Mexico. Tropical storm
    conditions are occurring on Las Islas Marias, and tropical storm
    conditions are expected later this morning along the coast of
    mainland Mexico.
    
    SURF:  Large swells generated by Willa will continue to affect
    portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico
    during the next few days.  Swells should begin to affect portions
    of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula later today.
    These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
    current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
    office.
    
    
    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT.
    Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.
    
    $$
    Forecaster Stewart
    
    
  • Tue, 23 Oct 2018 02:37:29 -0600: Hurricane Willa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13 - NHC Eastern North Pacific
    Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 23 2018
    
    000
    FOPZ14 KNHC 230837
    PWSEP4
                                                                        
    HURRICANE WILLA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  13                 
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP242018               
    0900 UTC TUE OCT 23 2018                                            
                                                                        
    AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILLA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
    20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
    115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H.                                       
                                                                        
    Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
       PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                        
    WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                        
    CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
       ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
       ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
       ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
    FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
        OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
            AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
       (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
            06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
    X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
    THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
    64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                        
                                                                        
      - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                        
                   FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
      TIME       06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
    PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
                 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
                                                                        
    FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
    LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                        
    CABO SAN LUCAS 34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
     
    SAN JOSE CABO  34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
     
    LOS MOCHIS     34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
     
    CULIACAN       34  2   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
     
    ISLAS MARIAS   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
    ISLAS MARIAS   50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
    ISLAS MARIAS   64 80   1(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)
     
    MAZATLAN       34 61  30(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)
    MAZATLAN       50  3  27(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
    MAZATLAN       64  X   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
     
    SAN BLAS       34 76   6(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)
    SAN BLAS       50  2   5( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
    SAN BLAS       64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
     
    P VALLARTA     34  9   4(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
     
    BARRA NAVIDAD  34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
     
    MANZANILLO     34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
     
    $$                                                                  
    FORECASTER STEWART                                                  
    
  • Tue, 23 Oct 2018 02:36:55 -0600: Hurricane Willa Forecast Advisory Number 13 - NHC Eastern North Pacific
    Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 23 2018
    
    000
    WTPZ24 KNHC 230836
    TCMEP4
    
    HURRICANE WILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP242018
    0900 UTC TUE OCT 23 2018
    
    CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
    
    NONE.
    
    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
    
    A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN... INCLUDING LAS ISLAS MARIAS
    
    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
    * NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA
    
    A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
    SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
    6 TO 12 HOURS FOR ISLA MARIAS...AND WITHIN 12 TO 18 HOURS FOR
    MAINLAND MEXICO. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD
    BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
    
    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
    
    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND
    SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILLA.
    
    HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 107.3W AT 23/0900Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
    
    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   4 KT
    
    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  945 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
    64 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  25NW.
    50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
    34 KT.......110NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.
    12 FT SEAS..150NE 210SE 180SW 180NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
    
    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 107.3W AT 23/0900Z
    AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 107.3W
    
    FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 22.0N 106.5W
    MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
    64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
    50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
    34 KT...100NE 100SE  70SW  80NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 23.8N 104.5W...INLAND
    MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
    34 KT... 50NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 25.8N 102.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW INLAND
    MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
    
    FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
    
    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 107.3W
    
    NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z
    
    $$
    FORECASTER STEWART
    
    
    
  • Mon, 22 Oct 2018 23:32:24 -0600: Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Eastern North Pacific

    000
    ABPZ20 KNHC 230532
    TWOEP

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1100 PM PDT Mon Oct 22 2018

    For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
    Storm Vicente, located a few hundred miles southeast of Manzanillo,
    Mexico, and on Hurricane Willa, located less than a hundred miles
    southwest of Las Islas Marias, Mexico.

    A small area of low pressure located about 850 miles south-southwest
    of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
    produce limited shower and thunderstorm activity. Development of
    this system is not expected due to unfavorable environmental
    conditions.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Berg

FEEDS FAIR USE: All links on these feeds go directly to the Author’s website and original posts. Only sites that offer RSS (Really Simple Syndication) feeds will be added to the SurvivalRing FEEDS section.

FEEDS DISCLAIMER: All content share via these RSS feeds are the responsibility of the ORIGINAL AUTHOR. I, Richard Fleetwood, owner and founder of SurvivalRing, may or may not agree with some, any, or all of the FEED CONTENT shared by these websites. We offers these feeds SOLELY to help spread awareness of great content resources. These FEEDS may disappear at any time, due to content changes, removal requests, technical issues, or lack of interest. Please visit the ORIGINAL AUTHOR’S website and BOOKMARK their URLs to your browser.

FEED REMOVAL: If you, as an owner of one of these FEEDS, would like to have me remove your RSS FEED from SurvivalRing, simply use the CONTACT ME page, with your request. I will remove your feed and links to your site.

Updated: March 6, 2011 — 12:35 am

The Author

Rich Fleetwood

Rich is the founder of SurvivalRing, now in it's 20th year, author of multimedia CDs and DVDs, loves the outdoors, his family, his geeky skill-set, and lives in rural Missouri, just a few miles from the Big Muddy. Always ready to help others, he shares what he learns on multiple blogs, social sites, and more. With a background in preparedness and survival skills, training with county, state, and national organizations, and skills in all areas of media and on air experience in live radio and television, Rich is always thinking about the "big picture", when it comes to helping individuals and families prepare for life's little surprises. Since 1997, he has provided guidance, authentic government survival history, and commentary on why we all need to get ready for that fateful day in the future, when we have to get our hands dirty and step in to save the day. He is an award winning videographer (2005 Telly Award), has received state and national scholarly recognition (2006 New Century Scholar and All USA Academic Team), and is a natural with computers, technology, gadgets, small furry mammals, and anything on wheels. Rich likes making friends, solving problems, and creating solutions to everyday issues. He doesn't mind mixing things up, when there is a teaching moment ready to happen. As a constitutional conservative, he's staying quite busy these days. The SurvivalRing Radio Show at www.survivalringradio.com will be coming back SOON!

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Connect With Us at
Twitter Twitter | FaceBook Facebook | LinkedInLinkedIn | Quora Quora | Instagram Instagram | Pinterest Pinterest | Youtube Youtube | Tumblr Tumblr
SurvivalRing © 2018
Contact Us | Advertise | Terms of Use | GDPR | TradeMarks | Privacy | Fair Use | Sitemap | F.T.C
Social Media Disclosure | Earnings Disclaimer | Anti Spam Policy | D.M.C.A.
Site Design by Richard Fleetwood - Founder / Director of SurvivalRing.org
Copyright © 1997-2018 SurvivalRing.org/SurvivalRing Media - All Rights Reserved. -
SurvivalRing is the Trademark (TM) & Service Mark (SM) of all SurvivalRing Media Projects
THIS WEBSITE HOSTED BY SURVIVALRING.ORG - Comments Welcome!