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National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
- Fri, 23 Aug 2019 17:35:05 -0600: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
ABNT20 KNHC 232334
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Chantal, located several hundred miles west of the
A broad area of low pressure located near the coast of southeastern
Florida continues to produce a large area of showers and
thunderstorms that extend eastward over the northern Bahamas and the
adjacent western Atlantic waters. The system has changed little in
organization since this afternoon, but environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form over the weekend. The low is forecast
to move generally northwestward near or over southeastern Florida
through tonight, and then move northward to northeastward over the
Atlantic near the east coast of central Florida on Saturday. After
that, the system is expected to move northeastward offshore of the
southeastern United States coast. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rains are possible over the northwestern Bahamas and the
southern and central Florida peninsula through the weekend.
Interests in the northwestern Bahamas, the Florida peninsula, and
the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress
of this system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system on Saturday, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Satellite imagery suggests that the circulation associated with an
area of low pressure located about 1100 miles east-southeast of
the Windward Islands has become better defined, but the thunderstorm
activity is limited at this time. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form over the weekend or early next week while it moves
generally westward to west-northwestward near 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
- Fri, 23 Aug 2019 14:35:39 -0600: Tropical Depression Chantal Graphics - NHC Atlantic
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 23 Aug 2019 20:35:39 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 23 Aug 2019 21:24:26 GMT
- Fri, 23 Aug 2019 14:34:34 -0600: Tropical Depression Chantal Forecast Discussion Number 12 - NHC Atlantic
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Aug 23 2019
589 WTNT44 KNHC 232034 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Chantal Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 500 PM AST Fri Aug 23 2019 Chantal is now producing only isolated showers and thunderstorms, and the low-level circulation is gradually becoming less well defined. The depression should decay to a remnant low during the next several hours. The remnant low is expected to dissipate by 72 h, which again is unchanged from the previous forecast. The initial motion is now 170/6. Chantal or its remnants should turn southwest and west during the next 24-48 hours as the subtropical ridge re-forms north and east of the system. After that, a slow motion toward the northwest is expected before the system dissipates completely. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 36.0N 40.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 35.5N 41.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 24/1800Z 35.3N 42.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 25/0600Z 35.4N 43.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/1800Z 35.7N 44.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
- Fri, 23 Aug 2019 14:34:07 -0600: Tropical Depression Chantal Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12 - NHC Atlantic
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019
000 FONT14 KNHC 232033 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042019 2100 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
- Fri, 23 Aug 2019 14:33:35 -0600: Summary for Tropical Depression Chantal (AT4/AL042019) - NHC Atlantic
...CHANTAL EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Aug 23 the center of Chantal was located near 36.0, -40.8 with movement S at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1014 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
- Fri, 23 Aug 2019 14:33:35 -0600: Tropical Depression Chantal Public Advisory Number 12 - NHC Atlantic
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Aug 23 2019
000 WTNT34 KNHC 232033 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Chantal Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 500 PM AST Fri Aug 23 2019 ...CHANTAL EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.0N 40.8W ABOUT 775 MI...1245 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 170 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.95 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Chantal was located near latitude 36.0 North, longitude 40.8 West. The depression is moving toward the south near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the southwest and west is expected over the weekend, followed by a slow motion toward the northwest Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Satellite imagery shows no organized shower activity associated with Chantal, and the system is expected to decay to a remnant low pressure area this evening. The remnant low could dissipate by late Sunday or Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1014 mb (29.95 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
- Fri, 23 Aug 2019 14:33:35 -0600: Tropical Depression Chantal Forecast Advisory Number 12 - NHC Atlantic
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019
000 WTNT24 KNHC 232033 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042019 2100 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 40.8W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 170 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1014 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 40.8W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.4N 40.8W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 35.5N 41.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 35.3N 42.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 35.4N 43.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 35.7N 44.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.0N 40.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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