National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

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National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

  • Fri, 23 Aug 2019 17:35:05 -0600: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 232334
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
    Depression Chantal, located several hundred miles west of the
    Azores.

    A broad area of low pressure located near the coast of southeastern
    Florida continues to produce a large area of showers and
    thunderstorms that extend eastward over the northern Bahamas and the
    adjacent western Atlantic waters. The system has changed little in
    organization since this afternoon, but environmental conditions are
    expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
    depression is likely to form over the weekend. The low is forecast
    to move generally northwestward near or over southeastern Florida
    through tonight, and then move northward to northeastward over the
    Atlantic near the east coast of central Florida on Saturday. After
    that, the system is expected to move northeastward offshore of the
    southeastern United States coast. Regardless of development, locally
    heavy rains are possible over the northwestern Bahamas and the
    southern and central Florida peninsula through the weekend.
    Interests in the northwestern Bahamas, the Florida peninsula, and
    the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress
    of this system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
    scheduled to investigate the system on Saturday, if necessary.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

    Satellite imagery suggests that the circulation associated with an
    area of low pressure located about 1100 miles east-southeast of
    the Windward Islands has become better defined, but the thunderstorm
    activity is limited at this time. Environmental conditions appear
    conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is
    likely to form over the weekend or early next week while it moves
    generally westward to west-northwestward near 15 mph.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Brown
  • Fri, 23 Aug 2019 14:35:39 -0600: Tropical Depression Chantal Graphics - NHC Atlantic
    Tropical Depression Chantal 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 23 Aug 2019 20:35:39 GMT

    Tropical Depression Chantal 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 23 Aug 2019 21:24:26 GMT
  • Fri, 23 Aug 2019 14:34:34 -0600: Tropical Depression Chantal Forecast Discussion Number 12 - NHC Atlantic
    Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Aug 23 2019
    
    589 
    WTNT44 KNHC 232034
    TCDAT4
    
    Tropical Depression Chantal Discussion Number  12
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042019
    500 PM AST Fri Aug 23 2019
    
    Chantal is now producing only isolated showers and thunderstorms,
    and the low-level circulation is gradually becoming less well
    defined.  The depression should decay to a remnant low during the
    next several hours.  The remnant low is expected to dissipate by
    72 h, which again is unchanged from the previous forecast.
    
    The initial motion is now 170/6.  Chantal or its remnants should
    turn southwest and west during the next 24-48 hours as the
    subtropical ridge re-forms north and east of the system.  After
    that, a slow motion toward the northwest is expected before the
    system dissipates completely.
    
    
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  23/2100Z 36.0N  40.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
     12H  24/0600Z 35.5N  41.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     24H  24/1800Z 35.3N  42.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     36H  25/0600Z 35.4N  43.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     48H  25/1800Z 35.7N  44.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     72H  26/1800Z...DISSIPATED
    
    $$
    Forecaster Beven
    
    
    
  • Fri, 23 Aug 2019 14:34:07 -0600: Tropical Depression Chantal Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12 - NHC Atlantic
    Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019
    
    000
    FONT14 KNHC 232033
    PWSAT4
                                                                        
    TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  12     
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042019               
    2100 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019                                            
                                                                        
    AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR 
    LATITUDE 36.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
    WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.                               
                                                                        
    Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
       ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                        
    WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                        
    CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
       ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
       ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
       ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
    FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
        OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
            AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
       (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
            18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
    X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
    THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
    64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                        
                                                                        
      - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                        
                   FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
      TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
    PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
                 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
                                                                        
    FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
    LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                        
    $$                                                                  
    FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
    
  • Fri, 23 Aug 2019 14:33:35 -0600: Summary for Tropical Depression Chantal (AT4/AL042019) - NHC Atlantic
    ...CHANTAL EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Aug 23 the center of Chantal was located near 36.0, -40.8 with movement S at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1014 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
  • Fri, 23 Aug 2019 14:33:35 -0600: Tropical Depression Chantal Public Advisory Number 12 - NHC Atlantic
    Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Aug 23 2019
    
    000
    WTNT34 KNHC 232033
    TCPAT4
    
    BULLETIN
    Tropical Depression Chantal Advisory Number  12
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042019
    500 PM AST Fri Aug 23 2019
    
    ...CHANTAL EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW DURING THE NEXT
    SEVERAL HOURS...
    
    
    SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...36.0N 40.8W
    ABOUT 775 MI...1245 KM W OF THE AZORES
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 170 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.95 INCHES
    
    
    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
    
    
    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Chantal
    was located near latitude 36.0 North, longitude 40.8 West. The
    depression is moving toward the south near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn
    toward the southwest and west is expected over the weekend, followed
    by a slow motion toward the northwest Sunday night and Monday.
    
    Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
    Satellite imagery shows no organized shower activity associated with
    Chantal, and the system is expected to decay to a remnant low
    pressure area this evening.  The remnant low could dissipate by late
    Sunday or Monday.
    
    The estimated minimum central pressure is 1014 mb (29.95 inches).
    
    
    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    None.
    
    
    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
    
    $$
    Forecaster Beven
    
    
  • Fri, 23 Aug 2019 14:33:35 -0600: Tropical Depression Chantal Forecast Advisory Number 12 - NHC Atlantic
    Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019
    
    000
    WTNT24 KNHC 232033
    TCMAT4
     
    TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042019
    2100 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019
     
    THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
     
    TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.0N  40.8W AT 23/2100Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
     
    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 170 DEGREES AT   5 KT
     
    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1014 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
     
    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.0N  40.8W AT 23/2100Z
    AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.4N  40.8W
     
    FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 35.5N  41.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
     
    FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 35.3N  42.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
     
    FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 35.4N  43.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
     
    FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 35.7N  44.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
     
    FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED
     
    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.0N  40.8W
     
    NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z
     
    $$
    FORECASTER BEVEN
     
     
    

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The Author

Rich Fleetwood

Rich is the founder of SurvivalRing, now in it's 20th year, author of multimedia CDs and DVDs, loves the outdoors, his family, his geeky skill-set, and lives in rural Missouri, just a few miles from the Big Muddy. Always ready to help others, he shares what he learns on multiple blogs, social sites, and more. With a background in preparedness and survival skills, training with county, state, and national organizations, and skills in all areas of media and on air experience in live radio and television, Rich is always thinking about the "big picture", when it comes to helping individuals and families prepare for life's little surprises. Since 1997, he has provided guidance, authentic government survival history, and commentary on why we all need to get ready for that fateful day in the future, when we have to get our hands dirty and step in to save the day. He is an award winning videographer (2005 Telly Award), has received state and national scholarly recognition (2006 New Century Scholar and All USA Academic Team), and is a natural with computers, technology, gadgets, small furry mammals, and anything on wheels. Rich likes making friends, solving problems, and creating solutions to everyday issues. He doesn't mind mixing things up, when there is a teaching moment ready to happen. As a constitutional conservative, he's staying quite busy these days. The SurvivalRing Radio Show at www.survivalringradio.com will be coming back SOON!

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