National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

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National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

  • Fri, 10 Jul 2020 03:27:16 -0600: Local Statement for New York City, NY - NHC Atlantic
    Issued at 527 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020
  • Fri, 10 Jul 2020 03:13:44 -0600: Local Statement for Philadelphia, PA - NHC Atlantic
    Issued at 513 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020
  • Fri, 10 Jul 2020 02:43:17 -0600: Tropical Storm Fay Graphics - NHC Atlantic
    Tropical Storm Fay 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 10 Jul 2020 08:43:17 GMT

    Tropical Storm Fay 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 10 Jul 2020 09:24:55 GMT
  • Fri, 10 Jul 2020 02:42:10 -0600: Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Discussion Number 3 - NHC Atlantic
    Issued at 500 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020
    
    000
    WTNT41 KNHC 100842
    TCDAT1
     
    Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number   3
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062020
    500 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020
     
    An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Fay early this 
    morning found that the storm had strengthened slightly, with 
    maximum SFMR-observed surface winds near 45 kt.  Additionally, the 
    minimum central pressure had fallen a few mb since yesterday.  
    Since the center of the cyclone is exposed on the southwest side of 
    the main area of deep convection, and southwesterly shear over the 
    system is forecast to persist, little if any additional 
    strengthening is anticipated before landfall.  Weakening should 
    commence after the center moves inland in 12-24 hours.  The official 
    intensity forecast is in good agreement with the latest model 
    consensus aids.
    
    Center fixes from the Air Force plane show that the storm continues 
    moving northward at a slightly faster pace, or 360/9 kt.  During 
    the next couple of days, Fay should move between a mid-level ridge 
    over the western Atlantic and a short-wave trough dropping into the 
    Ohio Valley region.  There has been little change to the official 
    track forecast, which remains close to the simple and corrected 
    dynamical model consensus tracks.
     
    Key Messages:
     
    1. Fay is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated 
    maxima of 7 inches along and near the track from the lower Maryland 
    Eastern Shore and Delaware northward into New Jersey, eastern 
    Pennsylvania, southeast New York, and southern New England. These 
    rains may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur. 
    Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time. 
     
    2. Tropical storm conditionsare expected along portions of the
    mid-Atlantic and northeast coast today and tonight, and a
    Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coasts of New Jersey,
    New York and Connecticut, including Long Island.
     
     
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
     
    INIT  10/0900Z 37.4N  74.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
     12H  10/1800Z 38.9N  74.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
     24H  11/0600Z 41.5N  73.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
     36H  11/1800Z 45.2N  72.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
     48H  12/0600Z 48.6N  70.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
     60H  12/1800Z 51.8N  68.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
     72H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
     
    $$
    Forecaster Pasch
     
    
  • Fri, 10 Jul 2020 02:42:10 -0600: Tropical Storm Fay Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3 - NHC Atlantic
    Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020
    
    000
    FONT11 KNHC 100842
    PWSAT1
                                                                        
    TROPICAL STORM FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3              
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062020               
    0900 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020                                            
                                                                        
    AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
    37.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
    45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                                          
                                                                        
    Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
       ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                        
    WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                        
    CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
       ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
       ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
       ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
    FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
        OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
            AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
       (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
            06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
    X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
    THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
    64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                        
                                                                        
      - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                        
                   FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
      TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
    PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
                 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
                                                                        
    FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
    LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                        
    BAR HARBOR ME  34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
     
    AUGUSTA ME     34  X   2( 2)   5( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
     
    PORTLAND ME    34  X   3( 3)   7(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
     
    CONCORD NH     34  X   7( 7)  13(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
     
    PORTSMOUTH NH  34  X   5( 5)   8(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
     
    WORCESTER MA   34  X  16(16)   8(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
     
    SPRINGFIELD MA 34  X  25(25)   7(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
    SPRINGFIELD MA 50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
     
    BOSTON MA      34  X   9( 9)   6(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
     
    HYANNIS MA     34  X   6( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
     
    NANTUCKET MA   34  2   5( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
     
    PROVIDENCE RI  34  2  14(16)   3(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
     
    BRIDGEPORT CT  34  1  37(38)   1(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)
    BRIDGEPORT CT  50  X   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
     
    NEW HAVEN CT   34  1  36(37)   2(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)
    NEW HAVEN CT   50  X   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
     
    HARTFORD CT    34  X  31(31)   4(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
    HARTFORD CT    50  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
     
    NEW LONDON CT  34  1  24(25)   3(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
     
    ALBANY NY      34  X  14(14)   5(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
    ALBANY NY      50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
     
    POUGHKEEPSIE   34  X  23(23)   2(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
    POUGHKEEPSIE   50  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
     
    MONTAUK POINT  34  6  19(25)   1(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)
     
    ISLIP NY       34  4  37(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)
    ISLIP NY       50  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
     
    NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 11  35(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)
    NYC JFK AIRPRT 50  X   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
     
    NYC CNTRL PARK 34  3  33(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)
    NYC CNTRL PARK 50  X   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
     
    NEWARK NJ      34  4  26(30)   1(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)
    NEWARK NJ      50  X   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
     
    TRENTON NJ     34  5  14(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
     
    NWS EARLE NJ   34 11  28(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)
    NWS EARLE NJ   50  X   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
     
    ALLENTOWN PA   34  1   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
     
    PHILADELPHIA   34  7   6(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
     
    ATLANTIC CITY  34 39   4(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)
    ATLANTIC CITY  50  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
     
    DOVER DE       34 16   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
     
    ANNAPOLIS MD   34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
     
    CAPE HENLOPEN  34 36   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)
    CAPE HENLOPEN  50  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
     
    OCEAN CITY MD  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
    OCEAN CITY MD  50  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
     
    PAX RIVER NAS  34  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
     
    WALLOPS CDA    34 20   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
     
    NORFOLK NAS    34  6   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
     
    NORFOLK VA     34  7   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
     
    OCEANA NAS VA  34  8   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
     
    CAPE HATTERAS  34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
     
    $$                                                                  
    FORECASTER PASCH                                                    
    
  • Fri, 10 Jul 2020 02:41:55 -0600: Summary for Tropical Storm Fay (AT1/AL062020) - NHC Atlantic
    ...FAY SLIGHTLY STRONGER AS IT HEADS NORTHWARD JUST OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA... As of 5:00 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 the center of Fay was located near 37.4, -74.8 with movement N at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
  • Fri, 10 Jul 2020 02:41:55 -0600: Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Advisory Number 3 - NHC Atlantic
    Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020
    
    154 
    WTNT21 KNHC 100841
    TCMAT1
     
    TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062020
    0900 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020
     
    CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
     
    NONE.
     
    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
     
    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY TO WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND INCLUDING LONG
    ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND
     
    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
     
    TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.4N  74.8W AT 10/0900Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
     
    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   9 KT
     
    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
    34 KT.......120NE 180SE   0SW   0NW.
    12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
     
    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.4N  74.8W AT 10/0900Z
    AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.8N  74.8W
     
    FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 38.9N  74.6W
    MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
    34 KT...120NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 41.5N  73.8W...INLAND
    MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
    34 KT... 60NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 45.2N  72.7W...INLAND
    MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
     
    FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 48.6N  70.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
     
    FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 51.8N  68.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
     
    FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
     
    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.4N  74.8W
     
    INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 10/1200Z
     
    NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z
     
    $$
    FORECASTER PASCH
     
     
    
    
  • Fri, 10 Jul 2020 02:41:55 -0600: Tropical Storm Fay Public Advisory Number 3 - NHC Atlantic
    Issued at 500 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020
    
    153 
    WTNT31 KNHC 100841
    TCPAT1
     
    BULLETIN
    Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number   3
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062020
    500 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020
     
    ...FAY SLIGHTLY STRONGER AS IT HEADS NORTHWARD JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
    DELMARVA PENINSULA...
     
     
    SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...37.4N 74.8W
    ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSE OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND
    ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM S OF CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
     
     
    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
     
    None.
     
    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
     
    A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
    * Cape May New Jersey to Watch Hill Rhode Island including Long
    Island and Long Island Sound
     
    A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
    expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
     
    For storm information specific to your area, including possible
    inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
    local National Weather Service forecast office.
     
     
    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was
    located near latitude 37.4 North, longitude 74.8 West. Fay is moving
    toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h).   A northward to
    north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected
    over the next couple of days.  On the forecast track, the center of
    Fay is forecast to move near the mid-Atlantic coast today and move
    inland over the mid-Atlantic or the northeast United States late
    tonight or on Saturday.
    
    Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that 
    the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) 
    with higher gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast today and 
    tonight while the center remains over water.  Weakening should begin 
    after the center moves inland.
    
    Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
    to the northeast and southeast of the center.
     
    The Air Force plane reported a minimum central pressure of 1002 mb 
    (29.59 inches).
     
     
    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    Key messages for Fay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
    Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC.
     
    RAINFALL:  Fay is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with
    isolated maxima of 7 inches along and near the track from the lower
    Maryland Eastern Shore and Delaware northward into New Jersey,
    eastern Pennsylvania, southeast New York, and southern New England.
    These rains may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts
    occur.  Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time.
     
    WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
    coast within the warning area today and spread northward through the
    warning area tonight.
     
    STORM SURGE: Minor flooding is possible along the coast for portions
    of the Tropical Storm Warning area.
     
    TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible today over portions of
    New Jersey, southeast New York, and southern New England.
     
     
    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
    Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.
     
    $$
    Forecaster Pasch
     
    
    
  • Thu, 09 Jul 2020 23:34:37 -0600: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 100534
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
    Storm Fay, located just offshore of the Virginia coast.

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next five
    days.

    &&
    Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Fay are issued under WMO header
    WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
    Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Fay are issued under WMO
    header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

    $$
    Forecaster Cangialosi

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Updated: March 6, 2011 — 12:33 am

The Author

Rich Fleetwood

Rich is the founder of SurvivalRing, now in it's 20th year, author of multimedia CDs and DVDs, loves the outdoors, his family, his geeky skill-set, and lives in rural Missouri, just a few miles from the Big Muddy. Always ready to help others, he shares what he learns on multiple blogs, social sites, and more. With a background in preparedness and survival skills, training with county, state, and national organizations, and skills in all areas of media and on air experience in live radio and television, Rich is always thinking about the "big picture", when it comes to helping individuals and families prepare for life's little surprises.

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