National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

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National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

  • Sat, 24 Oct 2020 20:51:27 -0600: Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 25 - NHC Atlantic
    Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020
    
    000
    WTNT22 KNHC 250251 CCA
    TCMAT2
     
    HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  25...CORRECTED
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL272020
    0300 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020
     
    CORRECTED 12 FT SEAS RADII
     
    THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
     
    HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.3N  56.1W AT 25/0300Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM
     
    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  45 DEGREES AT  21 KT
     
    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  960 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
    64 KT.......  0NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
    50 KT.......100NE 140SE  70SW  30NW.
    34 KT.......200NE 300SE 330SW 270NW.
    12 FT SEAS..450NE 510SE 540SW 420NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
     
    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.3N  56.1W AT 25/0300Z
    AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.5N  57.6W
     
    FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 43.6N  51.4W
    MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
    50 KT... 80NE 140SE 100SW  50NW.
    34 KT...200NE 320SE 350SW 270NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 47.3N  42.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
    50 KT... 50NE 130SE 130SW 100NW.
    34 KT...250NE 350SE 350SW 330NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 51.6N  30.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
    50 KT... 50NE 100SE 130SW 100NW.
    34 KT...300NE 370SE 400SW 450NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 56.5N  23.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
    50 KT...100NE 100SE 130SW 110NW.
    34 KT...350NE 400SE 450SW 450NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED
     
    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.3N  56.1W
     
    NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z
     
    $$
    FORECASTER ZELINSKY
     
     
    
  • Sat, 24 Oct 2020 20:49:25 -0600: Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Forecast Discussion Number 2 - NHC Atlantic
    Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020
    
    774 
    WTNT43 KNHC 250248 CCA
    TCDAT3
     
    Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Discussion Number   2...Corrected
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL282020
    1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020
    
    Corrected timing in Key Message number 3
     
    Deep convection has increased during the past few hours south of the 
    estimated low-level position based on aircraft data from just after 
    the release of the previous advisory. In fact, geostationary imagery 
    suggests that the low-level center could be trying to reform closer 
    to the deep convection. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt based 
    on the latest Dvorak estimate from SAB.  Another NOAA Hurricane 
    Hunter aircraft will investigate the system overnight and provide 
    additional data on the cyclone's structure and intensity.
     
    As noted above, the depression hasn't moved much, and the system 
    currently appears to be stationary. Satellite imagery and upper-air 
    data show a shortwave trough moving through the southeastern United 
    States, which has weakened the steering flow around the cyclone. As 
    the shortwave moves eastward, the subtropical ridge will expand 
    westward to the north of the tropical cyclone by Monday, which 
    should result in a steadier west-northeastward motion. After that 
    time, a powerful mid/upper-level low is forecast to eject out of the 
    southwestern U.S., which will weaken the ridge and cause the 
    tropical cyclone to turn northward and northeastward as it 
    approaches the northern Gulf Coast. The global models are not in 
    good agreement on the details of the timing of the eastward movement 
    of the upper-low. While this isn't unusual, it results in 
    significant differences in when and where the tropical cyclone turns 
    and exactly where it crosses the Gulf Coast next week, with model 
    solutions ranging from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. The new 
    NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope  
    between the HCCA and the TVCA multi-model consensus. However, given 
    the current lack of motion of the system and the large model spread 
    late in the period, the details of the track forecast are more 
    uncertain than usual. 
    
    If the cyclone's low- and mid-level circulations can become better 
    aligned, the environment for the next 2 to 3 days appears conducive 
    for steady intensification, with low shear and SSTs of near 30C in 
    the northwestern Caribbean and above 28C in the southern Gulf. 
    After 72 hours, the shear is expected to increase while the cyclone 
    moves over cooler SSTs near the northern Gulf Coast, which should 
    result in weakening before the center moves inland. The new NHC 
    intensity forecast is a bit higher than the previous one through 
    about 60 hours, and is a blend of the latest intensity consensus 
    aids and HCCA. While the current NHC forecast indicates that the 
    system should weaken below hurricane strength before landfall, users 
    are reminded that strong tropical storms can still produce 
    significant storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts along the 
    northern Gulf Coast. The cyclone should be absorbed into a frontal 
    system by the end of the forecast period.
    
    KEY MESSAGES:
     
    1. The depression is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm
    by Sunday and tropical storm conditions are expected in extreme 
    western Cuba on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in 
    the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Monday night and early 
    Tuesday.
    
    2. Through Wednesday, heavy rainfall is expected across portions of
    central and western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the northeast
    Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, southern Florida and the Florida Keys. 
    This rainfall may lead to flash flooding in urban areas.
     
    3. The system is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast as a
    tropical storm Tuesday night and Wednesday, and could bring storm 
    surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to areas from Louisiana to the 
    Florida Panhandle. Residents in these areas should monitor the 
    progress of the depression and updates to the forecast.
    
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
     
    INIT  25/0300Z 18.9N  83.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
     12H  25/1200Z 19.2N  83.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
     24H  26/0000Z 20.0N  83.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
     36H  26/1200Z 20.7N  84.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
     48H  27/0000Z 21.7N  86.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
     60H  27/1200Z 23.2N  88.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
     72H  28/0000Z 25.4N  90.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
     96H  29/0000Z 31.5N  89.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
    120H  30/0000Z...ABSORBED
     
    $$
    Forecaster Brennan
     
    
    
  • Sat, 24 Oct 2020 20:40:45 -0600: Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Graphics - NHC Atlantic
    Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Oct 2020 02:40:45 GMT

    Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Oct 2020 03:32:15 GMT
  • Sat, 24 Oct 2020 20:39:59 -0600: Summary for Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight (AT3/AL282020) - NHC Atlantic
    ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS TO PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN... As of 11:00 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 the center of Twenty-Eight was located near 18.9, -83.1 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
  • Sat, 24 Oct 2020 20:39:59 -0600: Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Public Advisory Number 2 - NHC Atlantic
    Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020
    
    000
    WTNT33 KNHC 250239
    TCPAT3
     
    BULLETIN
    Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Advisory Number   2
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL282020
    1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020
     
    ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING HEAVY
    RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS TO PARTS OF THE
    NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...
     
     
    SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
    -----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...18.9N 83.1W
    ABOUT 240 MI...380 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
    ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
     
     
    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
     
    The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
    province of Pinar del Rio.
     
    The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
    Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel.
     
    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
     
    A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
    * Pinar del Rio Cuba
     
    A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
    * Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico
    * Cozumel
     
    A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
    expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
     
    A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
    possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
     
    For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
    products issued by your national meteorological service.
     
     
    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression 
    Twenty-Eight was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 83.1 
    West. The depression is currently stationary, but a slow north- 
    northwestward to northwestward motion is expected to resume 
    overnight and continue on Sunday. A turn toward the west-northwest 
    and an increase in forward speed are forecast by Monday, followed 
    by a faster northwestward motion on Tuesday. On the forecast track, 
    the center of the cyclone will pass south of western Cuba early 
    Monday and move near or over the northern Yucatan Peninsula or 
    Yucatan Channel late Monday, move into the southern Gulf of Mexico 
    on Tuesday and reach the central Gulf of Mexico by late Tuesday. 
     
    Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
    Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 to 72 hours, and the 
    depression is forecast to become a tropical storm by Sunday morning, 
    and could become a hurricane by early Tuesday. 
     
    The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
     
     
    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
    Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.
     
    RAINFALL: Across portions of central and western Cuba, the Cayman
    Islands, Jamaica, the northeast Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico,
    southern Florida and the Florida Keys, storm total rainfall of 4
    to 8 inches with local amounts of 12 inches are possible through
    Wednesday.
     
    WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area
    in Cuba by Monday morning.
     
    Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in
    Mexico by Monday evening.
     
     
    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
    Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
     
    $$
    Forecaster Brennan
     
    
  • Sat, 24 Oct 2020 20:38:58 -0600: Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2 - NHC Atlantic
    Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020
    
    000
    FONT13 KNHC 250238
    PWSAT3
                                                                        
    TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-EIGHT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL282020               
    0300 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020                                            
                                                                        
    AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-EIGHT WAS LOCATED 
    NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM         
    SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                     
                                                                        
    Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
       ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                        
    WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                        
    CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
       ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
       ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
       ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
    FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
        OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
            AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
       (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
            00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
    X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
    THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
    64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                        
                                                                        
      - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                        
                   FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
      TIME       00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
    PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
                 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
                                                                        
    FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
    LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                        
    KEY WEST FL    34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
     
    TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)
     
    ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)
     
    APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   X( 9)
     
    GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   X( 9)
     
    PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   X(11)
     
    DESTIN EXEC AP 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   X(13)
     
    COLUMBUS GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)
     
    BIRMINGHAM AL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)
     
    MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)
     
    WHITING FLD FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)   X(16)
     
    PENSACOLA FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  17(18)   X(18)
     
    GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  19(25)   X(25)
    GFMX 290N 870W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)
    GFMX 290N 870W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
     
    MOBILE AL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  23(24)   X(24)
    MOBILE AL      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)
    MOBILE AL      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
     
    GULFPORT MS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  27(28)   X(28)
    GULFPORT MS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)
    GULFPORT MS    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
     
    STENNIS MS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  29(31)   X(31)
    STENNIS MS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)
    STENNIS MS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
     
    BURAS LA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  31(34)   X(34)
    BURAS LA       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   X(11)
    BURAS LA       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
     
    GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  19(19)  29(48)   X(48)
    GFMX 280N 890W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  15(18)   X(18)
    GFMX 280N 890W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)
     
    JACKSON MS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)   X(15)
     
    NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  29(31)   X(31)
    NEW ORLEANS LA 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   X( 9)
    NEW ORLEANS LA 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
     
    GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  22(22)  27(49)   X(49)
    GFMX 280N 910W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  14(19)   X(19)
    GFMX 280N 910W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)
     
    BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  22(24)   X(24)
    BATON ROUGE LA 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)
    BATON ROUGE LA 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
     
    MORGAN CITY LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  25(28)   X(28)
    MORGAN CITY LA 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)
    MORGAN CITY LA 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
     
    ALEXANDRIA LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   X(11)
     
    LAFAYETTE LA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  17(19)   X(19)
    LAFAYETTE LA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)
    LAFAYETTE LA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
     
    NEW IBERIA LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  18(21)   X(21)
    NEW IBERIA LA  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)
    NEW IBERIA LA  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
     
    GFMX 280N 930W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   9(21)   X(21)
    GFMX 280N 930W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   X( 8)
    GFMX 280N 930W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
     
    FORT POLK LA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   X( 8)
     
    LAKE CHARLES   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   X(11)
     
    CAMERON LA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   9(14)   X(14)
    CAMERON LA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
     
    JASPER TX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)
     
    KOUNTZE TX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
     
    PORT ARTHUR TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)
     
    GALVESTON TX   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)
     
    GFMX 280N 950W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)
     
    HIGH ISLAND TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)
     
    MATAGORDA TX   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
     
    PORT O CONNOR  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
     
    GFMX 270N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
     
    MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
     
    COZUMEL MX     34  X   1( 1)   9(10)  13(23)   8(31)   X(31)   X(31)
    COZUMEL MX     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
    COZUMEL MX     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
     
    CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   3( 3)  32(35)  17(52)   3(55)   X(55)   X(55)
    CP SAN ANTONIO 50  X   X( X)   5( 5)   8(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)
    CP SAN ANTONIO 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
     
    HAVANA         34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)
     
    ISLE OF PINES  34  1   7( 8)   7(15)   2(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)
     
    GRAND CAYMAN   34  1   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
     
    PENSACOLA NAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  22(25)   X(25)
    PENSACOLA NAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)
    PENSACOLA NAS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
     
    KEESLER AB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  32(36)   X(36)
    KEESLER AB     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   X(10)
    KEESLER AB     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
     
    $$                                                                  
    FORECASTER BRENNAN                                                  
    
  • Sat, 24 Oct 2020 20:38:58 -0600: Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Forecast Advisory Number 2 - NHC Atlantic
    Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020
    
    000
    WTNT23 KNHC 250238
    TCMAT3
     
    TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL282020
    0300 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020
     
    CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
     
    THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
    PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO.
     
    THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
    YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO RIO LAGARTOS...INCLUDING COZUMEL.
     
    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
     
    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * PINAR DEL RIO CUBA
     
    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * TULUM TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO
    * COZUMEL
     
    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
     
    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
     
    TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N  83.1W AT 25/0300Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
     
    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   0 KT
     
    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
     
    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N  83.1W AT 25/0300Z
    AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N  83.1W
     
    FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 19.2N  83.3W
    MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
    34 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 20.0N  83.7W
    MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
    34 KT... 70NE  60SE  20SW  30NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 20.7N  84.9W
    MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
    50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
    34 KT... 90NE  80SE  30SW  30NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 21.7N  86.6W
    MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
    50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
    34 KT... 90NE  80SE  30SW  50NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 23.2N  88.6W
    MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
    50 KT... 40NE  30SE  10SW  30NW.
    34 KT...120NE 110SE  30SW  80NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 25.4N  90.3W
    MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
    50 KT... 50NE  40SE  10SW  30NW.
    34 KT...120NE 120SE  30SW  80NW.
     
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
     
    OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 31.5N  89.5W...INLAND
    MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
     
    OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z...ABSORBED
     
    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N  83.1W
     
    INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 25/0600Z
     
    NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z
     
    $$
    FORECASTER BRENNAN
     
     
    
  • Sat, 24 Oct 2020 20:35:50 -0600: Hurricane Epsilon Graphics - NHC Atlantic
    Hurricane Epsilon 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Oct 2020 02:35:50 GMT

    Hurricane Epsilon 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Oct 2020 03:24:56 GMT
  • Sat, 24 Oct 2020 20:34:31 -0600: Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 25 - NHC Atlantic
    Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 24 2020
    
    000
    WTNT42 KNHC 250234
    TCDAT2
     
    Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number  25
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL272020
    1100 PM AST Sat Oct 24 2020
     
    Epsilon has become a little less organized during the past couple
    of hours. The hurricane is still producing inner-core convection,
    but cloud tops have gradually warmed, and the overall cloud pattern
    has become asymmetric once again. ASCAT-A data from just after 00Z 
    showed maximum winds of 55-60 kt southeast of Epsilon's center. The 
    intensity of the hurricane is therefore set at 65 kt, assuming a 
    little undersampling from the ASCAT instrument. The wind radii 
    analysis was also updated based on the ASCAT data.
    
    The hurricane is currently located over relatively warm waters 
    associated with the Gulf Stream. Epsilon is forecast to remain over 
    the Gulf Stream for at least another 12 hours, and should maintain 
    its tropical structure during that time. The cyclone is forecast to 
    move over much cooler water by Sunday afternoon and this should 
    cause it to quickly become post-tropical. Gradual weakening is 
    expected through this period, but the global models indicate that 
    Epsilon will continue to produce a very large area of gale-force 
    winds and maximum winds near hurricane strength even after it 
    becomes post-tropical. Epsilon is then expected to merge with 
    another large non-tropical low early next week.
     
    The hurricane is accelerating northeastward and should continue to
    gain forward speed in that general direction for the next day or
    so. Little change was made to the NHC track forecast, which is based
    on a blend of TVCA and HCCA. All of the typically reliable track
    models show the same evolution, so confidence in the track forecast
    remains high.
     
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
     
    INIT  25/0300Z 41.3N  56.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
     12H  25/1200Z 43.6N  51.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
     24H  26/0000Z 47.3N  42.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
     36H  26/1200Z 51.6N  30.7W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
     48H  27/0000Z 56.5N  23.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
     60H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED
     
    $$
    Forecaster Zelinsky
     
    
  • Sat, 24 Oct 2020 20:34:00 -0600: Hurricane Epsilon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25 - NHC Atlantic
    Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020
    
    000
    FONT12 KNHC 250233
    PWSAT2
                                                                        
    HURRICANE EPSILON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  25               
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL272020               
    0300 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020                                            
                                                                        
    AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE  
    41.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
    65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.                                         
                                                                        
    Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
       ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                        
    WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                        
    CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
       ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
       ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
       ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
    FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
        OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
            AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
       (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
            00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
    X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
    THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
    64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                        
                                                                        
      - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                        
                   FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
      TIME       00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
    PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
                 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
                                                                        
    FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
    LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                        
    HIBERNIA OILFD 34  6  53(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)
     
    CAPE RACE NFLD 34 20   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
     
    ILE ST PIERRE  34  5   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
     
    SABLE ISLAND   34  9   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
     
    $$                                                                  
    FORECASTER ZELINSKY                                                 
    
  • Sat, 24 Oct 2020 20:33:33 -0600: Summary for Hurricane Epsilon (AT2/AL272020) - NHC Atlantic
    ...EPSILON GROWS EVEN LARGER AS IT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD... ...HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Oct 24 the center of Epsilon was located near 41.3, -56.1 with movement NE at 24 mph. The minimum central pressure was 960 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
  • Sat, 24 Oct 2020 20:33:33 -0600: Hurricane Epsilon Public Advisory Number 25 - NHC Atlantic
    Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 24 2020
    
    000
    WTNT32 KNHC 250233
    TCPAT2
     
    BULLETIN
    Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number  25
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL272020
    1100 PM AST Sat Oct 24 2020
     
    ...EPSILON GROWS EVEN LARGER AS IT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD...
    ...HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES
    THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
     
     
    SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
    -----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...41.3N 56.1W
    ABOUT 785 MI...1265 KM NE OF BERMUDA
    ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES
     
     
    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
     
     
    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was 
    located near latitude 41.3 North, longitude 56.1 West. Epsilon is 
    accelerating toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h). Continued 
    acceleration in that direction is expected for the next day or two.
     
    Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher 
    gusts.  Gradual weakening is possible through the weekend, but 
    Epsilon is expected to remain a large and powerful system even after 
    it becomes post-tropical on Sunday.
     
    Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
    center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 380 miles
    (610 km).
     
    The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).
     
     
    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    SURF:  Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the
    Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast
    of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of
    days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
    current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
    office.
     
     
    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
     
    $$
    Forecaster Zelinsky
     
    
  • Sat, 24 Oct 2020 17:05:30 -0600: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 242305
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
    Epsilon, located over the west-central Atlantic Ocean, and on
    newly formed Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight, located over the
    northwest Caribbean Sea.

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

    &&

    Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight are issued
    under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
    Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight are issued
    under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

    $$
    Forecaster Brennan

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Updated: March 6, 2011 — 12:33 am

The Author

Rich Fleetwood

Rich is the founder of SurvivalRing, now in it's 20th year, author of multimedia CDs and DVDs, loves the outdoors, his family, his geeky skill-set, and lives in rural Missouri, just a few miles from the Big Muddy. Always ready to help others, he shares what he learns on multiple blogs, social sites, and more. With a background in preparedness and survival skills, training with county, state, and national organizations, and skills in all areas of media and on air experience in live radio and television, Rich is always thinking about the "big picture", when it comes to helping individuals and families prepare for life's little surprises.

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