Cosmic Echoes…by Rich Fleetwood

Archive for the ‘H5N1’ Category

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I found this jewel of an article reposted on Timebomb2000.com, and felt it covered all the bases of survival in hard times (disaster, ecomonic downturn, civil strife, etc.) that I just had to make sure it was seen by a wider audience.   Many of the items here could by applied and used in worse case scenarios, including pandemic bird flu, which seems to have the biggest echo on the governments “Fear Radar”.

Rich

From the old Greenspun board

Fair use
http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=0011Lt

How to Survive Really Hard Times
greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
Moderator: ed@yourdon.com

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How to Survive Really Hard Times
In the old days, folks were accustomed to periodically having to live through hard times. They knew how to survive the hard times with the least amount of wear and tear on their families. Nowadays, most folks don’t know what hard times really are. Even those folks who think they have it hard right now can usually still depend on some type of government handout or charity assistance, and therefore they don’t truly know what hard times really are.

My definition of hard times is when things ain’t what they use to be and they don’t look like they will return to normal anytime soon. This frequently happens in times of war, floods, tornadoes, and hurricanes. Which are also usually accompanied by power failures that last for days, weeks, or months.

Following are some suggestions for surviving these types of hard times.

Shelter:

Let’s start by assuming you now live in some type of dwelling and your dwelling is not in the immediate path of a flood, hurricane, marching troops, etc.

First, stay inside unless you must absolutely go outdoors. In the old days, folks had enough sense to come in out of the rain. During hard times, you don’t need to get wet, cold, or frost bitten. That just makes matters worse.

Read the rest of this entry »

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Cosmic Echoes has not been getting its fair share of my attention the last few months, and it is in a great position to help a LOT of people. I should be doing a better job of keeping this blog updated.

So, in that state of mind, I’ve made a commitment to myself, and to you, the reader, to make this blog a USEFUL, interesting, and cutting edge look at all things preparedness…again.

This year, after 3 years of heavy college student involvement, resulting in two college degrees, many awards (All USA Academic Team, New Century Scholar, Video Telly Award, and others), I am taking what we students like to call “a breather”, and do some half time college work and invest the majority of my time this next 18 months doing a specific set of projects. In no specific order these are…

• 6 to 8 credit hours of college classes towards my bachelors degree in Journalism(instead of 12 to 20 credit hours per semester…as I have been doing for my first two degrees)
• major update of SurvivalRing.org..the ENTIRE website…into a database driven, Web 2.0, easily manageable, and entirely up-to-date system. See the first glimpse here
• the addition of a citizen driven, science backed, and thoroughly complete compendium of BIRD FLU prep..including some deep discussion of the effects a very possible pandemic outbreak might bring to our society
• a greatly enhance fallout shelter compendium, with lots of comments, suggestions, and insight….versus just a ton of free downloads. You’ll have the info in your hands to print out with the downloads. Now, I’ll tell you the things you’ll really need to understand..if you’re considering actually building one. The Build A Fallout Shelter Page, in other words, is due to a massive overhaul.
• Podcasts….yes, long promised, yet, not online. I’ve been doing weekly music radio shows for my college radio station for over a year…now it’s time to make the SurvivalRing Survival Podcast a reality. Everything is ready (computer hardware, software, recording equipment, mics, etc)…but that ACTUAL podcast recordings. That will change, very soon.
• A lot of new articles from yours truly, on a wide range of preparedness topics and genres. These articles will also be making the rounds of magazine editors, to hit the real world between the eyes with what can be done with very little work, when it comes to being preparede.
• New CD Rom projects. I’ve published two multimedia CD projects in the past 4 years…I’m doing at least 3 more in the next YEAR. Watch this space for more news.
• New digital publications. I’ve mentioned here many times that I have hundreds of original government produced, unscanned survival and preparedness documents…some of which you never knew existed. I have at least a dozen ready to finsish and upload in the next month, and new scan projects queued and prioritized. You’ll love what is coming…
• Interactivity for you, the site visitor. I’ve had polls up for several years on the main SurvivalRing website, and had forums up for years as well, until spammers wreaked total chaos and havoc. I’ve got the old archives saved and updated, and will be opening the new SurvivalRing forums this spring, in a much more secure and stable software package. Chat has been working fine, but with little traffic. Comments in the new site design may be posted in ANY page or article, much like commenting is available on THIS blog. Take advantage of it!

That’s just the start. A new year, a new sense of adventure, and a lot of work to do…and a lot of work that has ALREADY been done.

Many things are happening in the background that will change the way we all see our future. SurvivalRing, Cosmic Echoes, and I will be here to help you get through what we fear will be tough times ahead. Consider me your friend, mentor, and guide…we will get through this together.

Rich

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Here’s the latest news regarding how bad the Avian Influenze/Bird Flu/H5N1 flu might turn out to be….

How about 33 percent of the population of the United States?

Source

Study: U.S. couldn’t slow flu pandemic
U.S. lags behind Europe in preparedness, researchers say

WASHINGTON (AP) — A mostly unprepared United States could do little to slow pandemic flu if it hits anytime soon, according to a new computer model.

And Britain is only a bit better off, the same study suggests.

If the U.S. government does nothing, a deadly global flu outbreak is likely to strike a third of the population, according to the results of a computer simulation published in Thursday’s journal Nature.

If government acts fast enough and has enough antiviral medicine to use as a preventive — and the United States doesn’t right now — the number could drop to about 28 percent of the population, the study found.

“Both cases we came up with were very pessimistic,” said lead author Neil Ferguson of the Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology at Imperial College in London. “There is no single magic bullet for stopping pandemic flu.”

So far this year H5N1 bird flu — which doesn’t move easily from person to person — has infected 204 people and killed 113, according to the World Health Organization. Most of the human cases and deaths have been in Asia, but birds with the disease have hit Europe.

Combining use of the antiviral Tamiflu with school closings could reduce the disease’s toll a bit, Ferguson said. But efforts to stop flu from entering U.S. borders — usually on planes with sick passengers — won’t work, he said. At most, such efforts can buy a couple of weeks’ delay before the disease sets in, he said.

Ferguson’s computer simulation is the second released this month and is more pessimistic than an earlier study led by Timothy Germann, a Los Alamos National Laboratory scientist. He said the flu could be less infectious and that efforts could slow it a bit.

Even Germann, who said no one knows which study is closer to reality, isn’t that optimistic.

“It would have to be a very weak pandemic strain for us to be able to stop it right now,” he said in an interview this week. “Most likely we wouldn’t be completely prepared.”

If the United States were like Britain and had enough preventive drugs for one-quarter of the population, computer models show that the number of people getting sick would drop from about 102 million to about 84 million in America, Ferguson said.

However, right now the United States has only enough medicine on hand for about 5 million people, or about 1.7 percent of the population, according to the Department of Health and Human Services.

HHS Spokesman Bill Hall said the agency has ordered enough drugs for another 23 million people, and those should arrive by the end of the year. The plan is to have enough medicine for about a quarter of the population by 2008.

“Twenty-five percent doesn’t go very far, and we don’t have anywhere near that,” said study co-author Donald Burke, professor of international health and epidemiology at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Public Health. “If it does occur before we have enough drug and enough vaccine, then the epidemic will have a substantial impact.”

If a country gets enough Tamiflu for half its population, it could then act aggressively in dosing families of flu-struck patients, and that could cut the flu attack rate by 75 percent, Ferguson said. So instead of 102 million infected Americans, it would be 33 million.

“France could do this now; this is highlighting the gap between U.S. and Europe,” Ferguson said.

Find this article at:
http://www.cnn.com/2006/HEALTH/conditions/04/26/preventing.pandemic.ap/index.html

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This is a HUGE article about the Avian Flu, and its possible implications for the United States. Read it here, or go to the Big Medicine website to see the article with the USA maps showing effects of a plague running rampage.

How bad WILL it get?

Avian flu modeled on supercomputer, explores vaccine and isolation options for thwarting an epidemic
[Apr 4 Los Alamos NM USA]–Using supercomputers to respond to a potential national health emergency, scientists have developed a simulation model that makes stark predictions about the possible future course of an avian influenza pandemic, given today’s environment of world-wide connectivity.

The research, by a team of scientists from Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico, the University of Washington and the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, is presented in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science online the week of April 3-7, and in the print issue of April 11.

The large-scale, stochastic simulation model examines the nationwide spread of a pandemic influenza virus strain, such as an evolved avian H5N1 virus, should it become transmissible human-to-human. The simulation rolls out a city- and census-tract-level picture of the spread of infection through a synthetic population of 281 million people over the course of 180 days, and examines the impact of interventions, from antiviral therapy to school closures and travel restrictions, as the vaccine industry struggles to catch up with the evolving virus.

“Based on the present work . . . we believe that a large stockpile of avian influenza-based vaccine containing potential pandemic influenza antigens, coupled with the capacity to rapidly make a better-matched vaccine based on human strains, would be the best strategy to mitigate pandemic influenza,” say the authors, Timothy Germann, Kai Kadau, Ira Longini and Catherine Macken.

Read the rest of this entry »

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The inevitable approach of The Bird Flu to the U.S. mainland continues to grow with each passing day. Yesterday’s news tells us that H5N1 has come to the British Isles…the last uninfected bastion of defense, before this deadly virus hits our shores…

Here are the details….

Dead swans tested in Antrim
06/04/2006 – 1:54:41 PM

Six dead swans were today reported to authorities in the North in the wake of a confirmed case of bird flu in Scotland.

The British government said four carcasses were recovered in Portglenone, Co Antrim, and two in Moira, Co Down, this morning.

The remains will be tested at the Department of Agriculture and Rural Development’s headquarters in Belfast in a move that has been standard practice for some time.

Bert Houston, chief veterinary officer for DARD, confirmed officials were working closely with their Scottish counterparts following the positive test in Fife.

But he forecast the North would be able to cope if the virus crosses the Irish Sea.

Mr Houston said: “We have good contingency plans in place and have implemented all the EU requirements.”

He added: “I am confident that if avian influenza did come to Northern Ireland we would be able to handle it.”

Mr Houston confirmed that the department’s helpline had been very busy this morning but said that was to be expected in light of the media coverage.

He said the worst case scenario would be an outbreak which would affect the commercial poultry industry.

But he said the position in the North was completely different to that in the Far East, where the industry was less advanced.

Liam McKibben, DARD’s director of animal health and welfare, said 350 dead and live-bird samples were tested between October and December last year.

This year, 25 wild bird carcasses have been submitted for tests.

All the results have come back negative.

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The bird flu/avian flu/flu pandemic uproar that has been climbing the Charts o’Doom is still a fairly significant threat to the citizens of the world. And yes, the threat is real. How to react to that threat is the topic at hand here, and knowing alternatives, possible action, and a good bit of REAL prepping should see most anyone through a realized actuality of AVIAN FLU hitting our shores. Below is one of the better articles on just that subject. Read and learn…

Rich

Source from the Fredericksburg.com

Don’t squawk in panic, use common sense to prepare for bird flu
Preparing for bird flu requires common sense, not panic
Date published: 1/6/2006

THE NOV. 3 ARTICLE in The Free Lance-Star, “Ready, if bird flu strikes,” represented a poor editorial choice. It pandered to the fear element in a complicated story, and brought back memories of Y2K.

The story contributed to the anxiety that many people feel when confronted with infectious diseases without providing any concrete help or hope. Even human interest stories should strive to encourage us to do what’s right, not build on fear and create mistrust between neighbors.

In reality, the “bird flu” that the Noonans are so prepared for is not now and may never become a pandemic. Should a pandemic strain of influenza emerge, it is impossible to predict its severity or the effect it will have on various elements in society.

The most likely disruption everyday citizens might face is disruption in health services. News of a pandemic could drive individuals to seek medical attention for minor illnesses, such as colds, possibly overwhelming private physicians and hospitals also treating the seriously ill. These same health workers will feel responsible for caring for any sick individuals in their own families and will face the possibility of infection with the new strain themselves.

This does not, however, mean that medical care will come to a grinding halt, or that the average citizen should learn how to set up and run a field clinic–only that in times of emergency, common sense and community bonds will be your greatest allies.

Stories encouraging a survivalist approach to a pandemic serve only to make the jobs of those tasked with planning for one more difficult. For instance, physicians in the area are concerned with the number of patients requesting prescriptions for Tamiflu, an antiviral medication believed to be effective against the circulating bird flu strain, for individual stockpiles. This creates serious difficulties for physicians who want to honor their patient’s wishes but also want to do what’s in the best interests of health.

Is a Tamiflu stockpile your best defense against bird flu? Probably not. Stocks of Tamiflu are limited throughout the world, and the best use of the medication initially is to limit the spread of a pandemic strain, hoping that it never reaches U.S. soil. If a strain does reach the U.S., the next best use of Tamiflu is to help those at highest risk of contracting or having serious complications from disease, including health care workers and persons with immune deficiencies.

There are also complications to the use of Tamiflu by private individuals without a doctor’s guidance. Tamiflu has a limited shelf life, so stockpiles could expire before they are ever needed for a pandemic. Tamiflu can be used to both treat and prevent the flu; however, studies of treatment indicate that it reduces the length of illness only by a single day.

Use of Tamiflu to prevent the flu is complicated, since the drug must be used every day, possibly for months, while a flu strain is present in the community. How would you know it was time to start taking Tamiflu? How would you know when to stop? What about proper dosing for everyone in your family?

At nearly $5 per dose, Tamiflu is an expensive and uncertain prevention measure. And if Tamiflu is used incorrectly, the flu virus may develop resistance to its effects, eliminating one weapon in our health arsenal.

The ideal prevention against a pandemic strain of flu is a vaccine. The World Health Organization is leading the effort to develop a vaccine for humans against the bird flu in Asia, in the event that it begins to spread. This vaccine will be available in limited supply, and probably won’t offer the highest protection, but it will buy us time to develop a better version.

One of the criticisms in the article, that the U.S. vaccine industry was crippled by fear of uncapped liability lawsuits, has some truth. The vaccine manufacturing infrastructure in the U.S. could use some work. There is fear in the industry that a new vaccine, administered to millions of patients, could cause harm to some small fraction and lead to large settlements payable by the company. However, the reality of our lack of vaccine capacity is much more complex than a single issue. Change won’t happen without the commitment of citizens to a lengthy improvement process, and without that commitment translating into pressure for companies and government to improve our nation’s vaccine manufacturing capabilities.

In order to prepare in the community, leaders in healthcare, public health, emergency response, and local government need to come together to seriously address the issue of pandemic preparedness. Clear plans outlining the duties and responsibilities of local agencies, how to coordinate with state and federal officials, and how to provide medical care to large numbers of patients in a short period of time are necessary. Resources need to be devoted to developing influenza surveillance systems, designed to detect a surge in cases of illness with influenzalike symptoms and respond early to delay the spread of disease.

Public education messages need to be widely distributed in such a way that people will see, hear, and respond to them. Knowledge will be our best defense against panic and fear. When we understand why difficult things are being asked of us, such as restricting travel plans, not visiting sick relatives, or quarantining ourselves at home after exposure to an illness, we are much more likely to cooperate.

One of the best defenses we will have against any infectious disease is cultivating our sense of community. When we care for our neighbor as much as ourselves, we will respect that minor illnesses do not require a trip to the emergency room, though they do require that we stay home and not spread it to others.

We will practice good hygiene, understanding the value it has for saving our neighbors from potentially life-threatening illnesses. We will trust physicians and public health officials to determine where medications are most needed and by whom. We will be prepared with a reasonable supply of food, water, and batteries, and we will be ready to share it in the event of a pandemic, or even a snowstorm, with our less fortunate neighbors.

ELIZABETH LOWERY is the epidemiologist for the Rappahannock Area Health District.

Date published: 1/6/2006

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Source from ABCnews

Pandemic Is Inevitable, Govt. Officials Say
Doctors Believe our Health Care System ‘Will Collapse’ When It Comes
By MARC LALLANILLA

Nov. 2, 2005 — – It’s inevitable, say government officials: a pandemic will strike the United States and the impact will be profound.

Schools and businesses will be closed. Hospitals and clinics, overwhelmed by the sheer number of patients, will force many of the sick and dying to be housed in gymnasiums and community centers. Travel restrictions will cause further economic collapse. And a severe shortage of drugs means many will go untreated.

A Jerry Bruckheimer film? Not according to information released by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.

“Pandemics happen,” said HHS Secretary Mike Leavitt in a teleconference today. “They happened before, and they’ll happen again. If it isn’t the H5N1 [bird flu] virus, it’ll be another virus.”

Documents released by the HHS present a chilling scenario in which an influenza pandemic will wreak havoc on a world that is largely unprepared. Highlights from the report include the following: When a pandemic influenza virus emerges, its global spread is considered inevitable.

Nations [are] unlikely to have the staff, facilities, equipment and hospital beds needed to cope with large numbers of people who suddenly fall ill.

The need for vaccine is likely to outstrip supply.

The need for antiviral drugs is also likely to be inadequate early in a pandemic.

Death rates are high.

‘The System Will Collapse’
Past pandemics have caused millions of deaths worldwide. The Spanish flu of 1918 killed as many as 40 million people.

“No one today can say how many people might die if the virus does mutate,” said Dr. David L. Heymann, executive director of communicable diseases for the World Health Organization, speaking today at the TIME Global Health Summit in New York. “It’s an unknown. The worry is what’s not known, and with this disease, we know very little.”

The existing public health system is, according to many experts, woefully inadequate to address a pandemic.

“Our emergency departments are inevitably going to be on the front lines in the battle against a major flu epidemic, but ERs nationwide are already straining under a system that underfunds and over-litigates,” said Dr. James A. Wilde of the Department of Emergency Medicine at the Medical College of Georgia.

“Even now there is little to no excess capacity to absorb more patients, but when pandemic flu arrives there will be a tidal wave of patients arriving in clinics and ERs nationwide,” said Wilde. “If it happens tomorrow, the system will collapse.”

As many as 50 percent of health care workers will refuse to show up to work unless they are fully protected from the virus, according to Dr. Irwin Redlener, associate dean of Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health.

No Proven Medication Exists
Many have placed their hopes on antiviral medications or on the eventual development of a vaccine. There are currently two antivirals available for influenza, Tamiflu (oseltamivir) and Relenza (zanamivir), but neither has been proven effective against the avian flu in humans.

“A focus on one antiviral is misplaced,” said HHS Secretary Leavitt. “There’s no certainty that they’ll be effective.”

And it will be six months or more before a vaccine is available. “Those 180 days to get the vaccine will be unfortunately very difficult because people will die while we’re waiting for the vaccine,” said Redlener. “Until we get antivirals and vaccines up to speed, we’ll be dependent on the health care system and it’s a fragile mess.”

Are We Crying Wolf?
A pandemic’s impact on society and the global economy will be immense. “Travel bans, closings of schools and businesses and cancellations of events could have major impact on communities and citizens,” according to HHS documents. “Care for sick family members and fear of exposure can result in significant worker absenteeism.”

But is all this information and preparedness unfounded fear? We are not crying wolf, according to Leavitt. Our current preparations will serve us well, even if avian flu never becomes a human pandemic.

“There is no certainty that H5N1 will mutate into a human-to-human transmissible virus,” said Leavitt. But he warned, “There will be another virus at another time.”