Cosmic Echoes…by Rich Fleetwood

Archive for October, 2005

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NORTHEAST BRACES FOR SUPERSTORM 2005
Posted: Tuesday, October 25, 2005 at 9:26 PM EDT
by AccuWeather.com News Director Steve Penstone

STATE COLLEGE, PA (AccuWeather.com) — AccuWeather.com meteorologists say Hurricane Wilma and the remnants of Tropical Storm Alpha will be drawn north along the Atlantic coast. By Tuesday they will be absorbed into a large low pressure system that will develop off the Virginia Capes, forming a “super-storm” that is expected to bring wind, rain, snow and flooding to the Northeast.

There is the potential for extensive wind damage, especially in coastal areas. The wind and snow could uproot trees and snap limbs that haven’t shed their leaves. That could lead to the potential for power outages if the trees strike power lines.

Wilma was at Category 3 strength when it ripped across South Florida after making landfall just south of Naples on Monday morning. The eighth hurricane to strike Florida in the past 15 months is being blamed for six deaths, and damage is estimated at anywhere from $2 billion to $9 billion.

According to AccuWeather.com meteorologists, this storm will be much different than the Perfect Storm of 1991. That storm, formed in part by the remnants of Hurricane Grace, produced little rain, but strong persistent winds along the coast spawned huge seas, along with extensive wave damage and flooding.

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WILMA HAMMERS INSURANCE COMPANIES
Wilma’s catastrophic race across the south Florida peninsula has exposed U.S. insurance companies to another round of storm-related claims.

According to MarketWatch.com Wilma could cost insurers $2 to $6 billion, the latest storm in a busy, and costly hurricane season.

Katrina’s widespread damage across the Gulf Coast could eventually top $30 billion, making it the most expensive catastrophe in U.S. history. Hurricane Rita followed less than a month later, and could add $4 to $7 billion to the insurance tab.

Allstate has been hit particularly hard. It is the second largest home and auto insurer in Florida. Last Wednesday the company reported a third quarter loss of $1.55 billion.

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RAMPANT LOOTING IN CANCUN
Dazed tourists and Mexican citizens wandered through knee-deep water in the ruined resort city of Cancun, standing in line for supplies after three days of huddling in shelters without electricity. Some frustrated people looted stores ripped open by Hurricane Wilma. Police shot in the air to stop the looting, but the looters threw rocks and concrete chunks at the police.

People stand in line for suppliers after Hurricane Wilma passed over Cancun, Mexico on Sunday, Oct. 23, 2005. Mexicans and stranded tourists, hungry and frustrated after a two-day beating by Hurricane Wilma, stood in line to buy supplies Sunday or simply raided grocery or furniture stores, dragging goods from shops ripped open by the storm. (AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana)

Fearing looters would turn on tourists officials removed about 30 foreigners from the hotel area, while police and soldiers stood guard outside damaged stores and set up checkpoints to seize stolen property.

An estimated 90% of the resort’s hotels have been damaged, and Cancun Mayor Francisco Alor told reporters it could take up to six months for the city to recover.

Tropical Storm Alpha, the record-breaking 22nd named storm of the 2005 hurricane season, drenched Haiti and the Dominican Republic Sunday, killing at least three people and forcing thousands from their homes.

The storm formed south of the Dominican Republic on Saturday, breaking the record set in 1933. With five weeks to go this is now the most active hurricane season since record keeping began 150 years ago.

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Ok…so it’s got a liberal bent….with a frosting of greenies…and maybe some tossed flakes on the side…

But, it’s funny…

http://www.climatemash.org/

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Michael Yon has posted his latest news report from the battlefront in Iraq. If you haven’t read his blog lately, and REALLY want to know what it’s like on the ground, get over there now and get caught up.

See what our men and women in uniform over there are doing…how they’re holding up…and note the fact that the US Military IS making a difference over there.

I highly recommend this resource very much.

Rich

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A friend on another forum had an accident this last week, and hit a deer at high speed…with a big SUV. SUV had some damage, but he was able to drive home with it.

It got me thinking…about my “deers and driving” stories…and wrote the below posting on that forum.

Thought you might find it an interesting if you’ve ever had a close call.

Rich

My deer stories…

Went 24 years of driving without ever having any “real” road kill issues, either in Texas or Alabama.

Then, in 2000, I started driving cross country, with hotshot delivery of Lance Campers and Chinook motor homes from the factories, to dealers coast to coast.

DEER NUMBER ONE

I was on the road two months, before I took out my first and only deer. Had dropped off a load in Ocalla, Florida, after a LONG journey originating in LA, to Milwaukee, to Louisville, Kentucky, to Ocalla. Headed back empty to Birmingham to visit the inlaws for a couple of days, before heading back to LA for another load. They have a very steep drive, and the 44 foot long flatbed I was hauling was a bit too big to park on the curb (which as on a curve), so I dropped it off at a friend’s country home (with 20 acres) around 10pm one nite, visited for a bit, then headed off to the inlaws.

After leaving the friends driveway, had about a quarter mile drive down clay roads, to get to the gravel roads, and made a left. Lo and Behold, I see the ONLY deer I had seen in the wild in Alabama, after LIVING there for 9 years and not seeing a single one in the county, standing on the left side of the road, and since it is so unusual, I brake to peek at it. I’m driving a one ton Dodge dually 4×4 Diesel extended cab, and the deer stops nibbling grass to look at it. I pass it slowly, and it starts trotting along…then I speed up, and it speeds up. So it wants to race, eh?

Not wanting to lose, I punch the gas, and the deer takes a 90 degree right turn, right into the side of the pickup, hitting the front driver side of the bed…and then going under the dually rear wheels.

Unfortunately, the name of this backwoods gravel road was Deer Chase Road.

I felt very bad about this, but there was nothing I could do for it, and since the family is 1200 miles away in Wyoming, any venison won’t make the trip home. I figure that the local neighbors will find it within a bit, and make use of it.

…and then head on down the road.

DEER NUMBER TWO

Not two months later, after dropping off a http://local.google.com/local?q=from%3A+Yakima+washington+to%3A+albany+new+york&spn=27.187141,77.651367&f=d&hl=en from upper NY to Fredricksberg, VA, I’m taking the cross country route through WV, heading northwest, and it’s way in the wee hours of the morn…around 3ish or so. All the rest areas are full and overflowing with sleeping truckers, so I continue on looking for the next truck stop. Finally coming into a sleepy little town with a small truckstop, I take the exit…only to find some of those little WV deer leaping from the driver side of the exit to the passenger side of the road as I’m coming up the ramp.

Miss the last deer by inches…possibly clipping his toes as he leaps across the ramp into the woods. No damage to him…or the truck…but it’s a bit tough to stop a 5 ton truck hauling a 3 ton trailer in a heartbeat…so I was a bit concerned for a few seconds seeing a passel of deer leaping and prancing across my path.

Fast forward to late December 2000.

DEER NUMBER THREE

I’ve picked up another Chinook in Yakima, Washington, bound for the east, and head ESE across country with the aim of getting a day’s rest at home in Lander, Wyoming. I’ve got four choices of getting home…I90 (6 hours extra driving), I80 (8 hours of extra driving, Teton Pass (the fastest, but deadliest with black ice and steep grades, just west of Jackson Hole, or Alpine Junction, many miles south but much safer. So, I follow the little county highways across mid Idaho, cross the Teton range near Alpine Junction, and then head north to Jackson.

North up 91, then hit Moran Junction, and head east on 26, which goes directly to Lander..about 90 miles away. Now I’m heading towards Togwatee Pass, one of the worst parts of the state to drive in the winter time.

I come up on a wreck while going up the pass, where a small white pickup is laying on its side in my lane. Cops and wrecker are already there. As I pass them, and punch the gas a touch, the wheels spin…black ice….

I drop the truck down into four wheel drive with the flick of a wrist, and take it slow to the top of the pass…no problemo.

Now, I’m heading downhill (the right side of the Togwatee link above) and gaining speed, so I’ve got the ebrake on, and keeping my foot on the foot brake as well…an interesting roller coaster ride…with a $75,000 hi end motor home balanced on 35 foot dovetail fifth wheel flatbed trailer.

Then…that Stupid Deer walks slowly into the headlights, and into my lane, hundreds of feet ahead…and stops dead center in my path….and I’m doing 60mph with a lead sled.

Talk about pucker factor…about 21…on a 10 point scale.

I ever so lightly veer into the oncoming lane (thank God no traffic in 2am)…waiting for the deer to bolt…just like that one did back in Alabama weeks before…and it doesn’t move. I cruise on past…and resume breathing again once I’m back in the regular lane of travel.

Talk about a heartstopping episode.

Fast forward 18 months.

DEER NUMBER FOUR

I’m no longer driving cross country…been thru the lost job, homeless, starting over, and making it back to normal phase, and I’m the GM of the Worland, Wyoming McDs. Family is still living in Lander in a recently acquired apartment, and I’m commuting home on the weekends from a tiny apartment a block from my store, provided by my owner/operator.

Just coming to Riverton, about 23 miles north of Lander, on the only highway between the two. About five miles out, it’s pitch black outside…around 10:30pm.

Come over a crest of the next hill and there’s about two miles of straight road across the countryside (which is the heart of the Wind River Reservation), and lo and behold…again….a shape slowly forms in the gloom far ahead, just off the shoulder. Normally nothing except weeds along this stretch, so I slow down to about 50mph..wondering. As I get closer….it’s a deer…closer still…a big deer…yet closer…a huge buck…maybe an 8 to 10 pointer.

Flashback…Togwatee Pass….crap…not again.

So I slow farther in the next few seconds…and the deer is stepping on the shoulder and starting to cross. I do the oncoming lane thing again…

He Bolts.

Crap again….PF now of 25…

I’m now driving a front wheel drive 1990 Ford Taurus…which means good road control, but no safety from impact.

The deer is in my path 50 feet away…just about to cross the highway lines painted on the road…and he’s not stopping.

So, it’s emergency manuever Ralph.

PF 32.

Somehow, I miss the rear end of the deer by inches, with the rear quarter panel and tail light of the Ford. And, I’m a bit sideways from the instinctive jerk of the steering wheel, and it takes all I’ve got to straighten it out…and do.

Pull over to the side of the road for a moment to check the drawers, and catch my breath. Holy Crap…is the only thing on my mind.

That’s the closest I’ve come to death in a long time, and my last deer/car escapade.

DEER NUMBER FIVE…

However, Son Number One continues the tradition.

They were living in Spokane last year, and came home to visit for Christmas here in Riverton…

Nice visit, and they head home VERY early the next day…Riverton, to Casper, north to Billings, then west on 90 all the way to Spokane…

Until Belgrade that is.

Still in the wee hours, there is wisps of fog developing in the valley they’re driving down 90 on. They get a bit thicker as time goes along. Son is going a little too fast for the conditions.

Fog bank…70mph…huge ass deer….small Toyota sedan….

Accident. Headon collision.

Son, DIL, and precious grandaughter are ok, the latter two sleeping…no one is hurt…except the deer…and the car.

Both are dead.

Son hits the deer at just exactly the right scientific speed to cause the huge buck to fly OVER the car, instead of THROUGH the windshield. It’s antlers leave creases in the hood and top lip of the windshield, cracking the window, but not piercing it.

Son calls on cell phone to 911, then to us minutes afterward. Thankfully all are ok, but they’re stranded, and it takes a couple of days to get them back home to Spokane.

So ends the Fleetwood vs. All Species of Deer saga…at least for now.

BUT…every vehicle we own now has deer whistles (do they really work?), very bright light headlight bulbs, AND driving and fog lights…for those LONG distance, late night trips across the countryside.

Be safe out there…and DON’T take your eyes off the road for a second in deer country.

Rich

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Bush is talking about it…the CDC is talking about it. Even PBS is talking about it…sort of.

Follow this link to read about the nastiness of the 1918 influenza pandemic. Then, realize the fact that H5N1 has a mortality rate of 50%.

What’s the human mortality rate of the H5N1 influenza virus? Here’s one guess:

Here’s another:

For what it’s worth (a lot), observed H5N1 mortality to date is indeed at about 70 percent, as The Globe and Mail reports. Where the one-percent figure in the AFP story comes from is anybody’s guess.

Here is what the Wikipedia says…

H5N1 is a highly pathogenic strain of avian influenza (bird flu). The first known appearance of this type of flu in humans was in Hong Kong during 1997. The infection of humans coincided with an epidemic of avian influenza, caused by the same strain, in Hong Kong’s poultry population. The name H5N1 refers to the subtypes of surface antigens present on the virus: hemagglutinin type 5 and neuraminidase type 1.

Influenza A virus, the virus that causes Avian flu. Transmission electron micrograph of negatively stained virus particles in late passage. (Source: Dr. Erskine Palmer, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Public Health Image Library).As of October 20, 2005, 118 cases of human infection, resulting in 61 deaths, have been confirmed outside of China (see table below). Thirteen countries across Asia and Europe have been affected. Additionally, more than 120 million birds have died from infection or been culled.

Usually these flu viruses are transported worldwide in the intestines of wild birds, and are non-lethal. However, this variant has mutated into the most lethal strain of avian influenza ever recorded. Such occurrences are natural and have happened in the past, as in the influenza pandemic caused by the 1918 Spanish flu, a variant of H1N1.

What does this all mean? Well, let’s let David Nabbaro tell us all about it…and the possible 150 million deaths a real pandemic may bring to the world.

Department of Public Information • News and Media Division • New York

PRESS CONFERENCE BY UN SYSTEM SENIOR COORDINATOR FOR AVIAN, HUMAN INFLUENZA

The newly appointed Senior United Nations System Coordinator for Avian and Human Influenza unveiled today a three-pronged global programme to curb the potentially deadly impact if the flu virus now killing millions of birds mutated and crossed into the human population.

David Nabarro, one of the most senior public health experts in the World Health Organization (WHO), said at a press conference that United Nations organizations were working with officials around the world to raise awareness and prepare for any potential human influenza pandemic. While it was not possible to predict that the avian flu virus, which had swept through Asia and decimated poultry stocks, would definitely mutate and cross over into humans, the potential threat of a flu epidemic was serious.

“I am certain that there will be another influenza pandemic sometime”, he said in response to a question about the likelihood of an epidemic. Health experts agreed that the long period of time since the last serious flu epidemic, which had killed tens of millions of people in 1918-1919, meant the world was overdue for another epidemic. “In the natural history of these things, I am almost certain that there will be another pandemic soon.”

He said the likelihood of the bird flu virus jumping into the human population was generally thought by health officials to be high. “I’m not sure whether ‘almost certain’ is the impression I’d like to have conveyed to you, but it does seem very likely and it would be extremely wrong for me as a public health person to be ignoring this threat.” Dr. Nabarro joined WHO in 1999 and was appointed Executive Director of Sustainable Development and Health Environments in July 2002. He was also a senior policy adviser to the Director-General.

He said that the number of deaths that would result from any pandemic would depend on where the outbreak occurred, the speed with which health and Government officials discovered the outbreak, the response initiatives and the quality of these initiatives. Countries with limited health-care systems that could not care for many ill people and that did not openly transfer information from the local to the national levels would affect the final number of deaths. “I’m not, at the moment, at liberty to give you a prediction on numbers, but I just want to stress, that, let’s say, the range of deaths could be anything from 5 to 150 million.”

The work done on prevention and preparedness over the next few months would make the difference between, for example, whether the next pandemic led in the direction of 150 million or in the direction of 5 million”, he said, adding, “Our effectiveness will be directly measured in lives saved and the consequences for the world.” The coordinated United Nations system-wide effort against a flu epidemic would tap into the technical guidance provided through the Organization’s specialized agencies responsible for animal and human health –- WHO and the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). That effort would also envelop the World Bank; the World Organization for Animal Health, an intergovernmental agency that was not part of the United Nations system; development banks; and non-governmental organizations such as the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies. The United Nations effort would also work with national, regional and local Government officials, who would play a key part in the effort.

He said that the first pillar of the programme would focus on preventative efforts to control the spread of avian flu. That effort would involve Government officials at all levels, farmers and corporations involved in chicken farming, as well as communities where people lived in close proximity to their poultry. The second pillar would focus on the preparedness of officials, agencies and communities in case the avian flu virus were to cross over into humans. “There would be a short interval between discovery and the time when the pandemic starts. It would be a matter of weeks.” The third pillar would focus on the responses of the United Nations system and other agencies and health officials. Officials wanted to minimize the effect of a pandemic on people’s health, as well as on trade, travel and the economy.

In response to a question, he said that the United Nations Coordination Office, officially created on Wednesday, would operate out of New York, tapping into the expertise of United Nations personnel throughout the system, with an initial budget of $2 million. A meeting organized by WHO, FAO, the World Bank and other agencies would be held on 7 November in Geneva. It would look at financing mechanisms and other topics to help develop the necessary initiative.

Best possible place to be if a pandemic occurs?

Away from the cities…far into the rural areas…staying away from large metro areas, transportation hubs (subways, airports, buses), and growing your OWN food, and avoiding any contact with strangers at all when it gets REALLY nasty.

Let’s hope nothing happens…but, preparing for the worst, prepares you for anything less.

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The ABC News website has a VERY interesting article, entitled Turn Your Home Into a Fortress. Yes, ABC is still owned by the Disney corporation. Such interesting phrasing, too…from a company whose main focus is children….very enticing key words…booby traps…panic rooms…sealing the cracks.

Scary.

Rich

Source

Turn Your Home Into a Fortress
If You’ve Ever Thought Your Home Was Totally Secure — Think Again!

Oct. 20, 2005 — – Think your home is secure? So do the 100,000 other households that will suffer robberies this year.

Burglaries, home invasions and abductions can all occur in your home if you don’t know how to keep criminals from getting inside. For brazen thieves, having someone in the home isn’t a deterrent.

“They’re like cockroaches,” said safety expert and ABC News consultant Bob Stuber. “If there is a crack or an opening they’re going to get through it.”

Stuber and ABC News’ “Primetime” teamed up to show homeowners some simple and inexpensive ways to protect their homes and themselves from would-be invaders.

Sealing Up the Cracks
As the sun sets on a suburban California street, a community of model houses for Centex Homes serves as the setting for Stuber’s latest safety lesson.

First, Stuber says, don’t take anything for granted — protect everything. “They’re constantly looking for us to give them an opportunity to get into the house,” he said. “When you give them an opportunity, they’re coming in.”

One of the more commonly overlooked opportunities is the front door peep hole. Stuber say’s he’s surprised at how often he sees doors without them.

“Put it in the door so you can see who’s out there,” he explained. “If you have little kids in the house, put another one in down low, so they can see.”

Stuber says dogs can be great deterrents, but if you don’t have one (or if you live alone), make it look like you do.

For a woman living alone, Stuber suggests setting out a pair of old work boots, to make a crook wonder about who is inside to confront him.

You can always get a fancy alarm system installed, but Stuber says you don’t need to go that far — just buy the inexpensive warning stickers at your local hardware store.

“It’s just like a stop sign,” he said. “Just the sticker itself will do the job.”

Stuber says that all of these things are cheap and simple ways to send a powerful message to the guy thinking about breaking into your house.

“‘If I go any further, I increase my odds of getting caught,’” he said.

The Second Floor
People who live in two-story homes sometimes overlook what Stuber called a “dangerous area” — the second floor.

Often homeowners are lax about securing the second floor, assuming it’s safe simply because of its location, and don’t take the necessary precautions to deter burglars.

For example, a van parked in the home’s driveway may look like just a van to the average citizen.

“But to the home invader — the burglar — this is a ladder,” he said. “They see something like this and it’s a way into the second story.”

Part of defending your home against criminals, is occasionally thinking like one.

Do-It-Yourself Panic Room
In the movie “Panic Room,” Jodi Foster plays a single mom whose house is invaded by violent thieves and is forced to take refuge with her daughter in an impervious vault left behind by the home’s previous owner.

Stubber says most of us don’t need anything quite so elaborate, and that with just a few adjustments, a common closet can be turned into a virtually impenetrable fortress.

By spending a few bucks on a dead bolt lock, some different hinges and a jam lock, and by storing your cell phone there at night, you can hide and keep your assailant at bay for a long time — time he doesn’t have.

While he’s thinking, you can call 911, and by keeping a list of neighbors’ phone numbers there as well, you can call reinforcements for help, too.

“Now this guy, he can ransack the house,” said Stuber. “So what? But by the time he got to you — if he really wanted to — the cops would already be there.”

Booby Trapping the Backyard
In the backyard, Stuber has another “old school” lesson to keep burglars away from windows. By adding some thorn bushes and landscape netting and sticking some fly paper under the window sill, an inviting window can become a frustrating booby trap.

“So now I’m tangled up in your net,” said Stuber, “I’ve got thorns poking me in the rear end, I’m sticking to everything I touch.”

Another, perhaps less innovative but favorite method of Stuber’s is motion-sensitive outdoor lighting — a real nuisance for criminals.

Stuber says when the lights go on, it sends another powerful message to a possible criminal that they don’t want to mess with this house.

“As a burglar, now I have to consider: ‘My chances of getting caught just went up 50 percent,’” explained Stuber. “‘Who saw that? Did a neighbor see it? Did a resident see? Are they calling the cops?’”

Taking away easy opportunities, creating obstacles and sending the right signals, Stuber says, may keep you from being a victim.

Copyright © 2005 ABC News Internet Ventures

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This is NOT global warming…this is NOT global warming….oh God…it’s GLOBAL WARMING!

Who says records are made to be BROKEN???

Rich

Source

Record-breaking Tropical Storm Alpha in Caribbean
Sat Oct 22, 2005 5:20 PM ET

MIAMI, Oct 22 (Reuters) – A record-breaking 22nd named tropical storm formed in the Caribbean on Saturday and could bring life-threatening floods and mudslides to Haiti and the Dominican Republic, the U.S National Hurricane Center said.

The storm was called Tropical Storm Alpha, the first time the hurricane center has resorted to using the Greek alphabet since it began naming tropical cyclones in 1953.

The 2005 hurricane season has had so many storms that all the storm names preassigned for this year were used up with Hurricane Wilma, which pounded the Mexican resort of Cancun on Saturday and was expected to head to Florida on Sunday.

Alpha made 2005 the most active hurricane season since records began 150 years ago, and the 2005 season still has five weeks to run. The 1933 season had 21 named storms.

Alpha was not expected to be a threat to the United States or U.S. oil and gas facilities in the Gulf of Mexico. Nor was it expected to become a hurricane, with sustained winds in excess of 74 mph (119 kph), the hurricane center said.

But the system, which was situated 210 miles (335 km) west-southwest of San Juan, Puerto Rico, at 5 p.m. EDT (2100 GMT), was expected to cross the island of Hispaniola, shared by the Dominican Republic and Haiti, and bring rainfall of up to 12 inches (30.5 cm) to the two countries.

Haiti, largely deforested, is particularly vulnerable to floods and mudslides. Last year, Hurricane Jeanne killed up to 3,000 people in the Haitian port city of Gonaives while it was still a tropical storm.

Alpha had winds of 40 mph (65 kph) and was moving northwest at 15 mph (24 kph), the hurricane center said.